1. The slated activities come ahead of the AES’s formal completion of withdrawal from ECOWAS on January 29 and mark the first anniversary of its initial announcement on January 28, 2024. Over the past year, the AES has formalized its confederation and portrayed itself as a regional organization capable of challenging ECOWAS, which the former perceives as acting against the interests of AES states under the influence of Western actors, particularly France. This narrative has allowed the AES to capitalize on the existing pro-sovereignist and anti-French sentiments among the populace to garner significant support. In this context, the slated demonstrations and other celebratory activities underscore the public’s strong support for the AES and the respective military juntas as they complete the withdrawal from ECOWAS. FORECAST: Given the precedent of pro-junta and pro-AES demonstrations, the slated activities are likely to attract a significant participant turnout, ranging in thousands, in the AES capitals. 
2. FORECAST: Considering the significance of the day and the overall support momentum for the AES’s withdrawal from ECOWAS, other celebratory activities such as large gatherings, anti-ECOWAS and anti-French demonstrations, and marches are likely to take place spontaneously outside the scheduled venues in Ouagadougou, Bamako, and Niamey. The respective authorities will likely bolster security across the capitals, particularly at the scheduled gathering venues These demonstrations and activities are likely to transpire peacefully given its pro-government agenda. However, considering the public’s frustrations against ECOWAS and other external actors’ interference in the AES’s internal affairs, there is a potential for any anti-ECOWAS or other similar demonstrations to record limited-scale incidents of violence and unrest. Under such circumstances, the security forces could intervene and forcibly disperse the participants and may devolve into clashes. Significant traffic disruptions are also likely in Ouagadougou, Bamako, and Niamey throughout the day on January 28. 

Those operating or residing in Ouagadougou, Bamako, and Niamey on January 28 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance in the vicinity of all political gatherings and celebratory events throughout the day due to the planned pro-AES activities and the distant potential for unrest.