Air Strike

22
Oct 2025
13:23 UTC

Ukraine Alert (UPDATE): Six killed in Kyiv region following nationwide air strikes on October 21-22; precision strikes targeting civilian, energy infrastructure to increase

Current Situation

  • On October 21-22, Russia launched 422 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and 28 missiles in nationwide air strikes. The attacks began at 19:00 (local time) and continued through the morning hours of October 22. Energy and residential infrastructure were hit in the Kyiv, Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad, Odesa, Poltava, Sumy, Vinnytsia, and Zaporizhzhia regions, leading to power outages across most of the country. 
  • Of the 28 missiles and 422 UAVs, the Ukrainian Air Force stated that 12 missiles and 55 UAVs directly hit targets in 26 locations, while debris from UAVs was recorded in 19 locations nationwide.  
  • The Ukrainian Air Force also stated that the attack was concentrated in the Kyiv region. Two people were killed and 25 were injured in Kyiv city, and four more deaths were recorded in the wider Kyiv region, including in the city’s suburb of Brovary. Moreover, 13 injuries were recorded in the Zaporizhzhia region. 
  • The attack on Kyiv city began in the early morning hours of October 22, a few hours after Ukraine claimed to have successfully used British-made Storm Shadow long-range missiles on Russia’s Bryansk Chemical Plant. Kyiv has described the plant as vital to Moscow’s military efforts. 

Source: Pravda 

Assessments & Forecast

  1. With the attack following a similar September 27-28 attack on Kyiv and the nearby city of Bila Tserkva, it reflects Russia’s continued focus on Kyiv city, likely due to its symbolic significance as the capital city, and the aim to lower public morale. Although exact details are unclear, the recent attack mirrors the September 27-28 attack pattern of initially attacking several regions to fragment Ukrainian air defenses before concentrating on Kyiv over several hours to maximize effectiveness, as evidenced by the number of successful hits. Moreover, considering that the strikes on Kyiv followed a Ukrainian attack on a strategic Russian military site, the attack was likely in retaliation for that, with major air strikes on Kyiv in June attributed to a Russian response to Ukraine’s Operation Spiderweb, which damaged its bomber fleet.  
  2. FORECAST: With recent reports indicating that Russia has increased the use of missiles and precision-capable UAVs to avoid interception, including during nationwide strikes on October 16, similar large-scale air strikes in the near term are more likely to bypass Ukrainian air defenses. This is supported by the fact that the rate of missile interception fell from 37 percent in August to six percent in September. This will also increase the risk posed to civilian infrastructure, from both deliberate hits as well as debris from shot down devices, as seen on October 21-22. While areas near the frontline are more likely to face frequent air strikes, Kyiv and other major cities in central, southern, and western Ukraine remain at an elevated risk. This is considering that Moscow likely aims to create a sense of insecurity in areas away from the frontline to increase anti-conflict sentiments there, as well as to maximize casualties and disruptions through such attacks, as evidenced by the October 21-22 strikes. 
  3. Meanwhile, the attack also highlights Russia’s continued targeting of Ukrainian energy infrastructure ahead of the winter months. Indeed, Ukraine’s energy facilities have been attacked at least 31 times in September, and around 60 per cent of the country’s gas production has been destroyed as of early October. FORECAST: As such, energy and associated electricity generation infrastructure, including heating plants, natural gas mines, pipelines, power stations, and underground reservoirs, are expected to remain the primary target of aerial attacks. This is especially expected in response to Kyiv also maintaining an aerial campaign against Russian energy facilities. 
  4. FORECAST: Further, given decreasing Ukrainian interception rates amid Russian precision strikes, the strain on domestic energy supply is liable to worsen in the coming weeks. In addition to blackouts, attacks on energy infrastructure are expected to result in secondary consequences on public utilities. These include disruptions to cell and internet services, heating, transportation, including railway and metro services, and water supplies. Additionally, fuel prices are likely to rise. Already, 80 percent of respondents to a September survey by a Norwegian NGO, in Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, and Kherson regions have reported shortages in access to electricity, heating, or fuel.  

Recommendations

  1. Avoid all travel to Ukraine due to the ongoing hostilities.      
  2. Those operating in the East, South, and Center of Ukraine are advised to minimize outdoor travel and avoid inter-city travel due to the increase in artillery fire and airstrikes.    
  3. Avoid all travel to Crimea due to the ongoing conflict and the potential for sporadic attacks on civilian and critical infrastructure facilities.    
  4. Those continuing to operate in the North and West of Ukraine are advised to adhere to air raid sirens over the coming days due to the heightened threat of missile and UAV attacks by Russian forces.   
  5. Identify the nearest shelter, which may be a Metro station, and proceed towards it when air sirens are sounded. Prepare emergency kits of food, water, medicine, and clothing in case needed.       
COUNTRY RISK LEVEL Extreme
AFFECTED AREA Ukraine
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL Extreme
STRENGTH OF SOURCE Confirmed

Current Situation

  • On October 21-22, Russia launched 422 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and 28 missiles in nationwide air strikes. The attacks began at 19:00 (local time) and continued through the morning hours of October 22. Energy and residential infrastructure were hit in the Kyiv, Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad, Odesa, Poltava, Sumy, Vinnytsia, and Zaporizhzhia regions, leading to power outages across most of the country. 
  • Of the 28 missiles and 422 UAVs, the Ukrainian Air Force stated that 12 missiles and 55 UAVs directly hit targets in 26 locations, while debris from UAVs was recorded in 19 locations nationwide.  
  • The Ukrainian Air Force also stated that the attack was concentrated in the Kyiv region. Two people were killed and 25 were injured in Kyiv city, and four more deaths were recorded in the wider Kyiv region, including in the city’s suburb of Brovary. Moreover, 13 injuries were recorded in the Zaporizhzhia region. 
  • The attack on Kyiv city began in the early morning hours of October 22, a few hours after Ukraine claimed to have successfully used British-made Storm Shadow long-range missiles on Russia’s Bryansk Chemical Plant. Kyiv has described the plant as vital to Moscow’s military efforts. 

Source: Pravda 

Assessments & Forecast

  1. With the attack following a similar September 27-28 attack on Kyiv and the nearby city of Bila Tserkva, it reflects Russia’s continued focus on Kyiv city, likely due to its symbolic significance as the capital city, and the aim to lower public morale. Although exact details are unclear, the recent attack mirrors the September 27-28 attack pattern of initially attacking several regions to fragment Ukrainian air defenses before concentrating on Kyiv over several hours to maximize effectiveness, as evidenced by the number of successful hits. Moreover, considering that the strikes on Kyiv followed a Ukrainian attack on a strategic Russian military site, the attack was likely in retaliation for that, with major air strikes on Kyiv in June attributed to a Russian response to Ukraine’s Operation Spiderweb, which damaged its bomber fleet.  
  2. FORECAST: With recent reports indicating that Russia has increased the use of missiles and precision-capable UAVs to avoid interception, including during nationwide strikes on October 16, similar large-scale air strikes in the near term are more likely to bypass Ukrainian air defenses. This is supported by the fact that the rate of missile interception fell from 37 percent in August to six percent in September. This will also increase the risk posed to civilian infrastructure, from both deliberate hits as well as debris from shot down devices, as seen on October 21-22. While areas near the frontline are more likely to face frequent air strikes, Kyiv and other major cities in central, southern, and western Ukraine remain at an elevated risk. This is considering that Moscow likely aims to create a sense of insecurity in areas away from the frontline to increase anti-conflict sentiments there, as well as to maximize casualties and disruptions through such attacks, as evidenced by the October 21-22 strikes. 
  3. Meanwhile, the attack also highlights Russia’s continued targeting of Ukrainian energy infrastructure ahead of the winter months. Indeed, Ukraine’s energy facilities have been attacked at least 31 times in September, and around 60 per cent of the country’s gas production has been destroyed as of early October. FORECAST: As such, energy and associated electricity generation infrastructure, including heating plants, natural gas mines, pipelines, power stations, and underground reservoirs, are expected to remain the primary target of aerial attacks. This is especially expected in response to Kyiv also maintaining an aerial campaign against Russian energy facilities. 
  4. FORECAST: Further, given decreasing Ukrainian interception rates amid Russian precision strikes, the strain on domestic energy supply is liable to worsen in the coming weeks. In addition to blackouts, attacks on energy infrastructure are expected to result in secondary consequences on public utilities. These include disruptions to cell and internet services, heating, transportation, including railway and metro services, and water supplies. Additionally, fuel prices are likely to rise. Already, 80 percent of respondents to a September survey by a Norwegian NGO, in Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, and Kherson regions have reported shortages in access to electricity, heating, or fuel.  

Recommendations

  1. Avoid all travel to Ukraine due to the ongoing hostilities.      
  2. Those operating in the East, South, and Center of Ukraine are advised to minimize outdoor travel and avoid inter-city travel due to the increase in artillery fire and airstrikes.    
  3. Avoid all travel to Crimea due to the ongoing conflict and the potential for sporadic attacks on civilian and critical infrastructure facilities.    
  4. Those continuing to operate in the North and West of Ukraine are advised to adhere to air raid sirens over the coming days due to the heightened threat of missile and UAV attacks by Russian forces.   
  5. Identify the nearest shelter, which may be a Metro station, and proceed towards it when air sirens are sounded. Prepare emergency kits of food, water, medicine, and clothing in case needed.       
COUNTRY RISK LEVEL Extreme
AFFECTED AREA Ukraine
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL Extreme
STRENGTH OF SOURCE Confirmed

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