Air Strike

25
Jun 2025
13:50 UTC

Ukraine Alert (UPDATE): Hundreds injured, 26 killed in missile attacks on Dnipropetrovsk region, including Dnipro City, on June 24; airstrikes on civilian areas to intensify

Current Situation

  • Russian forces launched a missile attack on the Dnipropetrovsk region in central Ukraine during the afternoon hours (local time) of June 24. The strike impacted Dnipro City, the administrative captial of the region, and the nearby town of Samarske, killing at least 26 and injuring 300 civilians. 
  • In Dnipro City, missile strikes damaged nearly 50 high-rise residential buildings, along with 40 educational facilites and eight medical centers. Public transportation in the city was disrupted following the attack, with tram and bus routes suspended or rerouted due to damage to facilities and power systems.
  • A passenger train traveling from Odesa to Zaporizhzhia in southern Ukraine was also struck during the airstrikes. Several individuals, including children, sustained injuries, but no fatalities were reported. 
  • The attack took place amid Russian air strikes on several Ukrainian regions, including in the eastern Sumy and Donetsk regions, with Moscow launching 97 combat and decoy UAVs between June 23-24. These UAVs were reportedly launched from multiple directions, including from Russia’s Kursk and Oryol cities, Millerovo in Rostov region, Primorsko-Akhtarsk in Krasnodar region, and Cape Chauda in Russian-occupied Crimea.
  • June 25 was declared a Day of Mourning in the Dnipropetrovsk region, with the strike reported as one of the most destructive single attacks on civilian infrastructure since the start of the full-scale Russian invasion in February 2022. 

Source: Pravda

Assessments & Forecast

  1. The timing of these strikes is notable, as they coincide with the NATO summit in The Hague, Netherlands, on June 24-25. Given that alliance members are specifically discussing increasing Ukraine’s air-defense capabilities and providing enhanced funding for UAV and missile production, this points to Moscow attempting to demonstrate its capability to penetrate existing Ukrainian air defenses and signals its intention to challenge NATO’s attempts to bolster Ukraine’s security. 
  2. Furthermore, Russian strikes on Dnipropetrovsk region also indicates a broader Russian effort to disrupt Ukrainian logistics supporting front-line positions in Donetsk, particularly in the Pokrovsk administrative area, given Dnipro City’s position as a logistics hub. This also raises concerns over Russia attempting to advance into Dnipropetrovsk, considering the Russian Ministry of Defense’s June 8 claims that Russian forces had crossed into Dnipropetrovsk to establish a “buffer zone” along the regional border. While there is no indication of an imminent push to seize Dnipropetrovsk outright, these moves likely reflect an operational strategy focused on impeding supply lines and restricting Ukrainian force mobility along the Dnipro–Pokrovsk axis. By doing so, Russia likely aims to weaken Ukrainian defenses in Donetsk to facilitate Russian advances deeper into Ukrainian territory. 
  3. The missile strike on Dnipropetrovsk region also underscores an escalation in Russia’s targeting of civilian infrastructure, with multiple airstrikes targeting cities, including several strikes on Kyiv City, reported since Ukraine’s Operation Spider Web on June 1. The deliberate strikes against densely populated urban areas and critical civilian infrastructure indicate Russia’s intent to maximize civilian impact, degrade emergency response capabilities, and stretch Ukrainian air defenses. 
  4. Russia’s use of decoy UAVs in combination with simultaneous missile and UAV attacks from multiple directions reflects a growing effort to degrade Ukraine’s air defense efficiency. Indeed, the failure to intercept the missile on Dnipropetrovsk may have been due to air defenses being overwhelmed amid the UAV strikes, launched from multiple directions. Reports suggesting decline in interception rates—from roughly 95 percent to 80 percent per Ukrainian officials —further indicates that such tactics are increasing the likelihood that Ukraine’s air defenses will be stretched too thin, allowing more Russian strikes to break through and damage key infrastructure and densely populated civilian areas. 
  5. FORECAST: Considering multiple Russian large-scale UAV and missile attacks in recent weeks, coupled with the reported expansion of UAV production, Russian aerial attacks will likely intensify in both scale and frequency in the immediate term. Cities closer to frontline areas, such as Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, Poltava, and Kremenchuk, remain at especially heightened risk due to their strategic and logistical significance. Attacks on these regions will likely focus on transportation infrastructure, logistical supply nodes, energy facilities, and emergency services hubs, aiming to significantly degrade Ukrainian operational logistics and civilian resilience throughout the ongoing summer offensive.  
  6. FORECAST: Given this, coupled with depleted defense capabilities, Ukraine will likely be forced to reposition its air defense systems to protect civilian infrastructure in cities near the frontline, as attacks on cities like Dnipro, which are logistical and supply hubs, could complicate frontline resupply efforts. Such a move would increase the risk of successful airstrikes on other regions that are less frequently targeted by Russia, including western regions like Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Vinnytsia, and Zhytomyr. 
  7. FORECAST: As NATO finalizes new defense investment plans—such as funding Ukrainian UAV production and boosting air defense procurement—Russia is likely to time large-scale UAV and missile attacks to coincide with key NATO summits, defense funding announcements, or ceasefire talks. These strikes will likely focus on high-visibility targets, including defense-industrial sites, transportation infrastructure, and command-and-control nodes in central and western Ukraine—particularly around Kyiv, Zhytomyr, and Lviv. 

Recommendations

  1. Avoid all travel to Ukraine due to the ongoing hostilities.
  2. Those operating in the East, South, and Center of Ukraine are advised to minimize outdoor travel and avoid inter-city travel due to the elevated threat of artillery fire and airstrikes.
  3. Avoid all travel to Crimea due to the ongoing conflict and the potential for sporadic attacks on civilian and critical infrastructure facilities.
  4. Those continuing to operate in the North and West of Ukraine are advised to adhere to air raid sirens due to the threat of sporadic missile and UAV attacks by Russian forces.
  5. Identify the nearest shelter, which may be a Metro station, and proceed towards it when air sirens are sounded. Prepare emergency kits of food, water, medicine, and clothing in case needed.
  6. Considering the heightened risk of unpredictable power outages, take mitigatory measures, such as confirming that business locations have working generators, sufficient access to fuel for longer periods, and access to several flashlights. Keep necessary electronics constantly charged.
  7. For more information on the security situation and assistance, please contact [email protected] 
COUNTRY RISK LEVEL Extreme
AFFECTED AREA Dnipropetrovsk, Ukraine
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL Extreme
STRENGTH OF SOURCE Credible

Current Situation

  • Russian forces launched a missile attack on the Dnipropetrovsk region in central Ukraine during the afternoon hours (local time) of June 24. The strike impacted Dnipro City, the administrative captial of the region, and the nearby town of Samarske, killing at least 26 and injuring 300 civilians. 
  • In Dnipro City, missile strikes damaged nearly 50 high-rise residential buildings, along with 40 educational facilites and eight medical centers. Public transportation in the city was disrupted following the attack, with tram and bus routes suspended or rerouted due to damage to facilities and power systems.
  • A passenger train traveling from Odesa to Zaporizhzhia in southern Ukraine was also struck during the airstrikes. Several individuals, including children, sustained injuries, but no fatalities were reported. 
  • The attack took place amid Russian air strikes on several Ukrainian regions, including in the eastern Sumy and Donetsk regions, with Moscow launching 97 combat and decoy UAVs between June 23-24. These UAVs were reportedly launched from multiple directions, including from Russia’s Kursk and Oryol cities, Millerovo in Rostov region, Primorsko-Akhtarsk in Krasnodar region, and Cape Chauda in Russian-occupied Crimea.
  • June 25 was declared a Day of Mourning in the Dnipropetrovsk region, with the strike reported as one of the most destructive single attacks on civilian infrastructure since the start of the full-scale Russian invasion in February 2022. 

Source: Pravda

Assessments & Forecast

  1. The timing of these strikes is notable, as they coincide with the NATO summit in The Hague, Netherlands, on June 24-25. Given that alliance members are specifically discussing increasing Ukraine’s air-defense capabilities and providing enhanced funding for UAV and missile production, this points to Moscow attempting to demonstrate its capability to penetrate existing Ukrainian air defenses and signals its intention to challenge NATO’s attempts to bolster Ukraine’s security. 
  2. Furthermore, Russian strikes on Dnipropetrovsk region also indicates a broader Russian effort to disrupt Ukrainian logistics supporting front-line positions in Donetsk, particularly in the Pokrovsk administrative area, given Dnipro City’s position as a logistics hub. This also raises concerns over Russia attempting to advance into Dnipropetrovsk, considering the Russian Ministry of Defense’s June 8 claims that Russian forces had crossed into Dnipropetrovsk to establish a “buffer zone” along the regional border. While there is no indication of an imminent push to seize Dnipropetrovsk outright, these moves likely reflect an operational strategy focused on impeding supply lines and restricting Ukrainian force mobility along the Dnipro–Pokrovsk axis. By doing so, Russia likely aims to weaken Ukrainian defenses in Donetsk to facilitate Russian advances deeper into Ukrainian territory. 
  3. The missile strike on Dnipropetrovsk region also underscores an escalation in Russia’s targeting of civilian infrastructure, with multiple airstrikes targeting cities, including several strikes on Kyiv City, reported since Ukraine’s Operation Spider Web on June 1. The deliberate strikes against densely populated urban areas and critical civilian infrastructure indicate Russia’s intent to maximize civilian impact, degrade emergency response capabilities, and stretch Ukrainian air defenses. 
  4. Russia’s use of decoy UAVs in combination with simultaneous missile and UAV attacks from multiple directions reflects a growing effort to degrade Ukraine’s air defense efficiency. Indeed, the failure to intercept the missile on Dnipropetrovsk may have been due to air defenses being overwhelmed amid the UAV strikes, launched from multiple directions. Reports suggesting decline in interception rates—from roughly 95 percent to 80 percent per Ukrainian officials —further indicates that such tactics are increasing the likelihood that Ukraine’s air defenses will be stretched too thin, allowing more Russian strikes to break through and damage key infrastructure and densely populated civilian areas. 
  5. FORECAST: Considering multiple Russian large-scale UAV and missile attacks in recent weeks, coupled with the reported expansion of UAV production, Russian aerial attacks will likely intensify in both scale and frequency in the immediate term. Cities closer to frontline areas, such as Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, Poltava, and Kremenchuk, remain at especially heightened risk due to their strategic and logistical significance. Attacks on these regions will likely focus on transportation infrastructure, logistical supply nodes, energy facilities, and emergency services hubs, aiming to significantly degrade Ukrainian operational logistics and civilian resilience throughout the ongoing summer offensive.  
  6. FORECAST: Given this, coupled with depleted defense capabilities, Ukraine will likely be forced to reposition its air defense systems to protect civilian infrastructure in cities near the frontline, as attacks on cities like Dnipro, which are logistical and supply hubs, could complicate frontline resupply efforts. Such a move would increase the risk of successful airstrikes on other regions that are less frequently targeted by Russia, including western regions like Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Vinnytsia, and Zhytomyr. 
  7. FORECAST: As NATO finalizes new defense investment plans—such as funding Ukrainian UAV production and boosting air defense procurement—Russia is likely to time large-scale UAV and missile attacks to coincide with key NATO summits, defense funding announcements, or ceasefire talks. These strikes will likely focus on high-visibility targets, including defense-industrial sites, transportation infrastructure, and command-and-control nodes in central and western Ukraine—particularly around Kyiv, Zhytomyr, and Lviv. 

Recommendations

  1. Avoid all travel to Ukraine due to the ongoing hostilities.
  2. Those operating in the East, South, and Center of Ukraine are advised to minimize outdoor travel and avoid inter-city travel due to the elevated threat of artillery fire and airstrikes.
  3. Avoid all travel to Crimea due to the ongoing conflict and the potential for sporadic attacks on civilian and critical infrastructure facilities.
  4. Those continuing to operate in the North and West of Ukraine are advised to adhere to air raid sirens due to the threat of sporadic missile and UAV attacks by Russian forces.
  5. Identify the nearest shelter, which may be a Metro station, and proceed towards it when air sirens are sounded. Prepare emergency kits of food, water, medicine, and clothing in case needed.
  6. Considering the heightened risk of unpredictable power outages, take mitigatory measures, such as confirming that business locations have working generators, sufficient access to fuel for longer periods, and access to several flashlights. Keep necessary electronics constantly charged.
  7. For more information on the security situation and assistance, please contact [email protected] 
COUNTRY RISK LEVEL Extreme
AFFECTED AREA Dnipropetrovsk, Ukraine
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL Extreme
STRENGTH OF SOURCE Credible

Related Reports

Ukraine
  • AIR_STRIKE
    Air Strike
    Ukraine Alert (UPDATE): Over 20 injured in Russian air strikes targeting Kyiv city during overnight hours (local time) on July 3-4; Moscow to intensify air strikes amid Kyiv’s air defense shortages
  • ARMED_CONFLICT
    Armed Conflict
    Ukraine Alert (UPDATE): At least 15 people killed, over 100 injured in combined UAV, missile air strikes on Kyiv city on June 16-17; aligns with Russian strategy to overwhelm air defenses
  • AIR_STRIKE
    Air Strike
    Russia & Ukraine Alert (UPDATE): Ukraine carries out coordinated UAV attacks against multiple airbases in Russia on June 1; large-scale Russian airstrikes expected in Ukraine in coming hours

Related Reports

Ukraine
  • AIR_STRIKE
    Air Strike
    Ukraine Alert (UPDATE): Over 20 injured in Russian air strikes targeting Kyiv city during overnight hours (local time) on July 3-4; Moscow to intensify air strikes amid Kyiv’s air defense shortages
  • ARMED_CONFLICT
    Armed Conflict
    Ukraine Alert (UPDATE): At least 15 people killed, over 100 injured in combined UAV, missile air strikes on Kyiv city on June 16-17; aligns with Russian strategy to overwhelm air defenses
  • AIR_STRIKE
    Air Strike
    Russia & Ukraine Alert (UPDATE): Ukraine carries out coordinated UAV attacks against multiple airbases in Russia on June 1; large-scale Russian airstrikes expected in Ukraine in coming hours