06
Feb 2025
12:08 UTC
Turks and Caicos Islands (UK) Tactical: General elections slated to take place from 07:00-21:00 (local time) on February 7; allot for disruptions
Current Situation
- The Turks and Caicos Islands (TCI) are scheduled to hold general elections from 07:00-21:00 (local time) on February 7.
- Approximately 10,000 voters will elect members of the House of Assembly. The leader of the political party that wins the most seats in the House of Assembly is typically invited by the Governor to become Premier.
- The 2025 election is the first general election following the 2024 electoral reform. In accordance with the new electoral laws, voters will elect 19 members of the House of Assembly, an increase from 15. The four members who were previously appointed by the Governor, Premier, and Opposition will now be elected through a popular vote.
- A total of 43 candidates have been nominated: 19 from the Progressive National Party (PNP) led by the incumbent Premier Charles Washington Misick, 19 from the People’s Democratic Movement Party (PDM) led by opposition leader, Edwin Astwood, and five independent candidates.
- Advance polling will be held on February 6 exclusively for eligible individuals, including senior citizens, persons with disabilities, election officials, essential workers, healthcare professionals, incarcerated voters, and those under medical treatment. Voting stations will be installed in public schools and government offices and will be open from 08:00 to 16:00 on February 6. Further information on the exact location of the polling stations can be found here.
- The Office of the Governor has announced that all public offices will remain closed on February 7 due to Election Day. The elections will be held using voting machines for the first time, replacing paper ballots.
Assessments & Forecast
- The 2025 vote is taking place against the backdrop of growing public concern over the housing crisis and a deteriorating security situation across the islands, particularly in Providenciales. This heightened sense of insecurity follows a record-breaking year in 2024, which saw 48 homicides—the highest number in TCI’s history. About 90 percent of these deaths have been tied to gang activity, with reports pointing to the existence of 19 active criminal groups throughout the islands. Alongside these pressing issues, discussions surrounding healthcare, illegal migration, constitutional reform, and economic growth have also shaped public discourse and influenced political campaigns.
- Both contesting political parties unveiled their manifestos on January 24, offering distinct approaches to the aforementioned voters’ concerns. The PDM’s manifesto, presented by Astwood, emphasizes crime reduction, safe communities, and affordable housing to tackle the escalating cost of living. In contrast, Premier Misick’s pledge to continue the PNP’s focus centers on fostering economic growth, creating jobs, reducing inflation, and ensuring community safety should he be re-elected.
- The PDM has historically struggled in elections, with only a notable win in 2016. Their challenges in previous years may reflect a lack of trust in their governance or a preference for the incumbent PNP. That said, in 2025, the PDM appears focused on social issues like affordable housing and crime reduction, which may resonate with the immediate concerns of the public.
- In contrast, the PNP emphasizes broader economic strategies, suggesting a focus on long-term development and fiscal stability, with Misick projecting a 5.8 percent growth in real GDP in 2025 and emphasizing the government’s commitment to developing new industries beyond tourism to diversify the economy. TCI’s strong GDP recovery since 2021 following a significant contraction in 2020 due to the pandemic, further lends credence to the success of PNP’s economic strategies, with strong macroeconomic indicators likely to maintain the party’s popularity.
- Besides, the PNP-led administration has actively responded to the worsening security landscape, with additional funding allocated to security agencies and security reinforcements made in the past three months, including the Cabinet approving an additional 500,000 USD from the Contingency Fund for specialized tactical police deployments. Additionally, authorities announced plans to enhance law enforcement with the recruitment of 125 foreign officers and 75 new local officers to bolster the police force’s manpower as per February 3 reports. The PNP’s strong economic performance, ongoing development efforts, and commitment to security reinforce its incumbent advantage. This could solidify their position as the preferred choice for many voters, especially those focused on economic prosperity.
- FORECAST: The 2025 election is the first general election held after the 2024 electoral reform, which has received broad bipartisan support as well as significant backing from the public. Given the absence of disputes over the new electoral system from both contesting political parties, along with the restraint shown by both leaders in using inflammatory rhetoric intended to sway public opinion, the likelihood of the election results being contested is minimal, regardless of the election outcome. Given this largely moderated discourse and considering the precedent of the 2021 elections, the upcoming vote is expected to proceed peacefully, without any incidents of politically motivated unrest. Separately, voter participation is also expected to be relatively high, following the 75 percent turnout seen in the 2021 elections.
- FORECAST: Ad hoc protests and small-scale rallies drawing a turnout in the low-to-mid dozens, in support of or against PNP or PDM can be expected, particularly near public offices. However, these are anticipated to transpire peacefully. In addition, a bolstered security presence is expected at polling centers nationwide on February 7. While no immediate security threats are anticipated, the increased security measures could lead to delays or disruptions in pedestrian and vehicular travel around polling stations and key government buildings. Ad hoc road closures and prohibitory orders are likely to be enforced in sensitive areas and around city borders to ensure smooth voting operations.
Recommendations
- Those operating or residing in Turks and Caicos Islands on February 7 are advised to allot for disruptions to travel between 07:00-21:00 near polling stations due to the slated general elections.
- Allot for disruptions to public services and regular business operations on February 7.
COUNTRY RISK LEVEL
Low
AFFECTED AREA
Turks and Caicos Islands
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL
Low
STRENGTH OF SOURCE
Confirmed
Current Situation
- The Turks and Caicos Islands (TCI) are scheduled to hold general elections from 07:00-21:00 (local time) on February 7.
- Approximately 10,000 voters will elect members of the House of Assembly. The leader of the political party that wins the most seats in the House of Assembly is typically invited by the Governor to become Premier.
- The 2025 election is the first general election following the 2024 electoral reform. In accordance with the new electoral laws, voters will elect 19 members of the House of Assembly, an increase from 15. The four members who were previously appointed by the Governor, Premier, and Opposition will now be elected through a popular vote.
- A total of 43 candidates have been nominated: 19 from the Progressive National Party (PNP) led by the incumbent Premier Charles Washington Misick, 19 from the People’s Democratic Movement Party (PDM) led by opposition leader, Edwin Astwood, and five independent candidates.
- Advance polling will be held on February 6 exclusively for eligible individuals, including senior citizens, persons with disabilities, election officials, essential workers, healthcare professionals, incarcerated voters, and those under medical treatment. Voting stations will be installed in public schools and government offices and will be open from 08:00 to 16:00 on February 6. Further information on the exact location of the polling stations can be found here.
- The Office of the Governor has announced that all public offices will remain closed on February 7 due to Election Day. The elections will be held using voting machines for the first time, replacing paper ballots.
Assessments & Forecast
- The 2025 vote is taking place against the backdrop of growing public concern over the housing crisis and a deteriorating security situation across the islands, particularly in Providenciales. This heightened sense of insecurity follows a record-breaking year in 2024, which saw 48 homicides—the highest number in TCI’s history. About 90 percent of these deaths have been tied to gang activity, with reports pointing to the existence of 19 active criminal groups throughout the islands. Alongside these pressing issues, discussions surrounding healthcare, illegal migration, constitutional reform, and economic growth have also shaped public discourse and influenced political campaigns.
- Both contesting political parties unveiled their manifestos on January 24, offering distinct approaches to the aforementioned voters’ concerns. The PDM’s manifesto, presented by Astwood, emphasizes crime reduction, safe communities, and affordable housing to tackle the escalating cost of living. In contrast, Premier Misick’s pledge to continue the PNP’s focus centers on fostering economic growth, creating jobs, reducing inflation, and ensuring community safety should he be re-elected.
- The PDM has historically struggled in elections, with only a notable win in 2016. Their challenges in previous years may reflect a lack of trust in their governance or a preference for the incumbent PNP. That said, in 2025, the PDM appears focused on social issues like affordable housing and crime reduction, which may resonate with the immediate concerns of the public.
- In contrast, the PNP emphasizes broader economic strategies, suggesting a focus on long-term development and fiscal stability, with Misick projecting a 5.8 percent growth in real GDP in 2025 and emphasizing the government’s commitment to developing new industries beyond tourism to diversify the economy. TCI’s strong GDP recovery since 2021 following a significant contraction in 2020 due to the pandemic, further lends credence to the success of PNP’s economic strategies, with strong macroeconomic indicators likely to maintain the party’s popularity.
- Besides, the PNP-led administration has actively responded to the worsening security landscape, with additional funding allocated to security agencies and security reinforcements made in the past three months, including the Cabinet approving an additional 500,000 USD from the Contingency Fund for specialized tactical police deployments. Additionally, authorities announced plans to enhance law enforcement with the recruitment of 125 foreign officers and 75 new local officers to bolster the police force’s manpower as per February 3 reports. The PNP’s strong economic performance, ongoing development efforts, and commitment to security reinforce its incumbent advantage. This could solidify their position as the preferred choice for many voters, especially those focused on economic prosperity.
- FORECAST: The 2025 election is the first general election held after the 2024 electoral reform, which has received broad bipartisan support as well as significant backing from the public. Given the absence of disputes over the new electoral system from both contesting political parties, along with the restraint shown by both leaders in using inflammatory rhetoric intended to sway public opinion, the likelihood of the election results being contested is minimal, regardless of the election outcome. Given this largely moderated discourse and considering the precedent of the 2021 elections, the upcoming vote is expected to proceed peacefully, without any incidents of politically motivated unrest. Separately, voter participation is also expected to be relatively high, following the 75 percent turnout seen in the 2021 elections.
- FORECAST: Ad hoc protests and small-scale rallies drawing a turnout in the low-to-mid dozens, in support of or against PNP or PDM can be expected, particularly near public offices. However, these are anticipated to transpire peacefully. In addition, a bolstered security presence is expected at polling centers nationwide on February 7. While no immediate security threats are anticipated, the increased security measures could lead to delays or disruptions in pedestrian and vehicular travel around polling stations and key government buildings. Ad hoc road closures and prohibitory orders are likely to be enforced in sensitive areas and around city borders to ensure smooth voting operations.
Recommendations
- Those operating or residing in Turks and Caicos Islands on February 7 are advised to allot for disruptions to travel between 07:00-21:00 near polling stations due to the slated general elections.
- Allot for disruptions to public services and regular business operations on February 7.
COUNTRY RISK LEVEL
Low
AFFECTED AREA
Turks and Caicos Islands
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL
Low
STRENGTH OF SOURCE
Confirmed
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Related Reports
UK
-
ProtestUK Tactical: Anti-AfD protest slated to take place in front of German Embassy in London at 18:00 (local time) on February 24; maintain heightened vigilance
-
ProtestEurope Tactical: Pro-Ukrainian protests to take place in multiple cities regionwide on February 22-24; maintain heightened vigilance
-
ProtestUK Tactical: PTI to hold protest at High Commission of Pakistan in London at 14:00 (local time) on February 20; maintain heightened vigilance
-
ProtestUK Tactical: Climate protest ongoing outside office building on 100 Museum Street, London, as of afternoon hours (local time) on February 17; maintain heightened vigilance