• According to an official statement, the opposition Chadema party informed police authorities of two simultaneous protest marches in Dar es Salaam between 13:00-16:00 (local time) on September 23. 
• The protests will be held along two routes. The first protest route will start from the Magomeni administrative ward, proceed through Morogoro Road, and conclude at the Mnazi Mmoja Park. The second route will start from the Ilala Sokoni administrative ward, proceed along Uhuru Road, and also conclude at the Mnazi Mmoja Park. 
• Reports indicate that police authorities have banned the protest and increased security patrols in Dar es Salaam since September 20, with security forces seen deploying water cannon trucks. The police reportedly added that it would “deal” with anyone who violated the ban.
• The demonstration is being held to demand investigations into alleged killings and abductions of Chadema members in recent weeks.

1. This comes amid an increased crackdown on opposition members following the mass arrests of 520 Chadema supporters nationwide on August 11 ahead of a planned rally and comes after a member of Chadema’s national secretariat was found dead with visible signs of torture on September 8. This significantly heightened domestic and international concerns over the perceived repression of opposition activities ahead of the general elections in 2025, after President Samia Suluhu Hassan strived to restore regional and international credit in recent years by allowing some freedom for the opposition and media to operate. Thus, Chadema’s decision to defy the police ban underscores its deepened grievances over the authorities’ perceived increased resort to authoritarian tactics. The demonstrations also likely aim to capitalize on the increased international attention to further pressure the authorities. Additionally, it is possible that Chadema called for two simultaneous protest marches to stretch the security forces. 
2. FORECAST: The police ban on the scheduled protest may deter some Chadema supporters from attending the marches. However, given Chadema’s known mobilization capabilities and the deep frustrations among party members, a turnout ranging in the mid-to-high hundreds of protesters can be anticipated. Bolstered security deployments can be expected in the vicinity of the Mnazi Mmoja Park and along the marches’ routes. Police forces will likely erect roadblocks and barricades to prevent participants from gathering or marching, and are expected to use forcible measures of dispersal against participants, including tear gas, water cannons, and potentially rubber bullets. This will likely lead protesters to engage in acts of unrest and in scuffles with the police. Traffic disruptions can be expected in the vicinity of the Mnazi Mmoja Park and of the marches’ routes throughout the day.

Those residing or operating in Dar es Salaam on September 23 are advised to avoid nonessential travel in the vicinity of Mnazi Mmoja Park, Magomeni and Ilala Sokoni administrative wards, and along the protest routes due to the planned marches and the potential for security crackdowns and unrest.