1. The scale of the July 18-19 air strikes underscores Russia’s intent and capability to continuously increase the scale of its air strikes. This is also supported by a statement by Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev, promising that Moscow would escalate its aerial attacks on Ukraine in response to the EU’s latest sanctions package implemented on July 18. The air strikes further highlight Moscow’s strategic shift towards UAV mass-saturation tactics, overwhelming Ukraine’s air defenses through sheer volume. This tactic is also evident in UAV barrages on July 11-12 and July 8-9, which involved the use of 597 and 728 UAVs, respectively.
2. FORECAST: Despite Major General Freuding’s statement, Russia is unlikely to achieve the capacity to launch 2,000 UAVs simultaneously in the coming weeks. However, given a notable increase in Russia’s UAV production capacity, coupled with a steady month-to-month increase in Russian UAV deployments —with Moscow launching a record 5,337 UAVs in June 2025 alone, compared to 4,003 in May and 2,399 in April—this trend suggests that the number of UAVs launched per wave will continue to rise steadily.
3. FORECAST: Furthermore, the fact that central, southern, and western regions were targeted in the July 18–19 air strikes underlines a gradual increase in the frequency of Russian long-range attacks targeting Ukrainian regions away from the front lines. This tactic was previously seen in large-scale air strikes targeting western and central Ukraine on July 8-9 and July 11-12, and smaller-scale strikes on these regions on July 15-16. Russia will likely continue efforts to divert Ukrainian resources from the front lines in order to aid on-ground advances during its summer offensive over the coming months. As such, the risk posed to businesses and civilians in these regions is expected to increase in parallel with the rising frequency and intensity of air strikes in the coming weeks. 
4. FORECAST: In response, Ukraine is likely to ramp up its own UAV strikes on Russian territory, including on Moscow, as seen in the strikes on multiple Russian regions on July 19-20. With Kyiv aiming to degrade the UAV capabilities of Russian forces, such operations will likely continue to focus on associated military infrastructure, defense manufacturers, and logistics networks. Additionally, Ukraine is expected to continue employing targeted cyber and sabotage operations against UAV production facilities, as seen in the July 15 cyberattack on a key Russian UAV manufacturer claimed by Ukrainian intelligence.  

Ukraine 

1. Avoid all travel to Ukraine due to the ongoing hostilities.      
2. Those operating in the East, South, and Center of Ukraine are advised to minimize outdoor travel and avoid inter-city travel due to the increase in artillery fire and air strikes.    
3. Avoid all travel to Crimea due to the ongoing conflict and the potential for sporadic attacks on civilian and critical infrastructure facilities.    
4. Those continuing to operate in the North and West of Ukraine are advised to adhere to air raid sirens over the coming days due to the heightened threat of missile and UAV attacks by Russian forces.   
5. Identify the nearest shelter, which may be a Metro station, and proceed towards it when air sirens are sounded. Prepare emergency kits of food, water, medicine, and clothing in case needed.       
6. Considering the heightened risk of unpredictable power outages, take mitigatory measures, such as confirming that business locations have working generators, sufficient access to fuel for longer periods, and access to several flashlights. Keep necessary electronics constantly charged.   
7. For more information on the security situation and assistance please contact [email protected] 

Russia 

1. Avoid nonessential travel to Russia due to potential instability in the coming days, the underlying threat of military mobilization, arbitrary detention, and increased risk of spillover violence in regions bordering Ukraine.       
2. Remain cognizant of authorities’ updates regarding travel prohibitions on individuals deemed eligible for military conscription.     
3. Foreign companies operating in Russia are advised to remain cognizant of government regulations and decrees that pose risks to business continuity and operations.   
4. It is recommended to have emergency plans in place in case of further deterioration in the security landscape.    
5. Foreign citizens in Moscow and other areas in western Russia are advised to review evacuation plans in case of emergencies.    
6. Avoid all travel in the vicinity of government and military facilities, as well as possible political gatherings or lone picket protests, in the coming days.    
7. Remain cognizant of restrictions enacted at a regional and local level.     
8. Avoid discussions concerning the political, economic, and military situation, even with friends and family.    
9. Avoid meeting strangers, discussing the political situation, or using any anti-Russia rhetoric in public.   
10. Those intending to travel between Russia and its neighboring European countries are advised to remain cognizant of authorities’ updates regarding land border restrictions. Review options for departing Russia, including air, rail, and land routes, with the understanding that certain options may become unavailable with short notice.