• Activists associated with left-leaning organization Bagong Alyansang Makabayan (BAYAN) are slated to hold a protest at Kalaw Avenue in Metro Manila from 09:30 (local time) on July 4. 
• The slated demonstration will be held to denounce alleged US military presence in the country and reject Manila’s formal signing of the Pax Silica declaration on April 16. 

1. The turnout at the slated demonstration is anticipated to range from the high hundreds to the low thousands, given that approximately 2,500 individuals participated in the June 12 protest over the same issue. The participation is further likely to increase should other like-minded organizations, such as Anakbayan, decide to join the demonstration. In anticipation, the authorities are expected to maintain an elevated security posture near the site, given Kalaw Avenue’s proximity to the US Embassy (approximately one km). These measures are likely to include the deployment of additional police personnel and the installation of barricades to monitor and control the crowd. Security measures are expected to be particularly pronounced around the US Embassy, as participants reportedly attempted to demonstrate outside the mission during the June 12 protest. 
2. There remains a latent risk of scuffles between protesters and the security personnel should demonstrators engage in perceived disruptive behaviors including vandalism or attempting to breach security cordons. In such cases, the authorities are likely to respond with forcible crowd-control measures, including the temporary detention and removal of protesters from the site. Significant travel disruptions are anticipated along Kalaw Avenue and surrounding roads during the protest hours on July 4. 

Those operating or residing in Metro Manila on July 4 are advised to maintain vigilance in the vicinity of Kalaw Avenue due to the slated protest and associated risk of scuffles, while allotting for travel disruptions.