Protest

27
Dec 2024
7:04 UTC

Pakistan Tactical: Shiite group slated to hold nationwide protests to condemn Parachinar violence on December 27; maintain vigilance

Current Situation:

  • The Shia Ulema Council is slated to hold nationwide protests during the late afternoon hours (local time) following Friday prayers on December 27.
  • In Islamabad, a protest march is scheduled to be held from Markazi Imambargah to the Press Club at 16:00 (local time) on December 27.
  • In Karachi, demonstrations are planned at multiple locations, including Abbas Town, Band-E-Khan, Gulistan-E-Johar, Gulshan-E-Hadeed, Gulshan-E-Maymar, Korangi, Malir 15 Flyover along National Highway 5, North Karachi (Surjani Town), Rizvia Chowrangi (Nazimabad), Shahrah-E-Faisal (StarGate), and Shahrah-E-Pakistan (Ancholi) on December 27.
  • In Lahore, unconfirmed sources suggest a potential protest outside the Press Club on December 27.
  • The gatherings will be held to demand justice for the alleged violence against the Shiite population in Parachinar City of Kurram District in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

Assessments & Forecast:

  1. The participation in the slated protests is expected to vary across cities. The turnout in Karachi and Lahore is projected to reach the mid-to-high hundreds, driven by the substantial Shiite populations in these cities and the significant participation observed during a similar protest held on December 26 in Karachi. In contrast, participation in Islamabad is likely to be restricted to the mid-to-high dozens, given precedent. Participation is likely to increase if additional Shiite groups, such as the Majlis Wahdat-e-Muslimeen (MWM), join the demonstrations.
  2. The authorities are expected to bolster security measures in the vicinity of the aforementioned protest locations to oversee the proceedings. These measures will include deploying security personnel and setting up barricades. Such measures are also likely to be extended outside government buildings, especially in Islamabad, Karachi, and Lahore.
  3. There is a latent risk of localized scuffles between protesters and authorities, particularly if protesters become unruly, attempt to breach security measures, or block nearby roads. In such cases, the authorities are likely to resort to baton charges and the use of tear gas to maintain law and order and also enforce roadblocks near press clubs and along the protest route in Islamabad. Should the potential unrest escalate, stricter measures may be implemented, reflecting the authorities’ low tolerance for such activities. Significant disruptions to vehicular traffic are anticipated in the aforementioned locations due to the slated nationwide protests on December 27.

Recommendations:

Those operating or residing in Pakistan on December 27 are advised to maintain vigilance in the aforementioned locations due to the slated nationwide protests and related risk of unrest.

COUNTRY RISK LEVEL High
AFFECTED AREA Pakistan
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL Medium
STRENGTH OF SOURCE Credible

Current Situation:

  • The Shia Ulema Council is slated to hold nationwide protests during the late afternoon hours (local time) following Friday prayers on December 27.
  • In Islamabad, a protest march is scheduled to be held from Markazi Imambargah to the Press Club at 16:00 (local time) on December 27.
  • In Karachi, demonstrations are planned at multiple locations, including Abbas Town, Band-E-Khan, Gulistan-E-Johar, Gulshan-E-Hadeed, Gulshan-E-Maymar, Korangi, Malir 15 Flyover along National Highway 5, North Karachi (Surjani Town), Rizvia Chowrangi (Nazimabad), Shahrah-E-Faisal (StarGate), and Shahrah-E-Pakistan (Ancholi) on December 27.
  • In Lahore, unconfirmed sources suggest a potential protest outside the Press Club on December 27.
  • The gatherings will be held to demand justice for the alleged violence against the Shiite population in Parachinar City of Kurram District in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

Assessments & Forecast:

  1. The participation in the slated protests is expected to vary across cities. The turnout in Karachi and Lahore is projected to reach the mid-to-high hundreds, driven by the substantial Shiite populations in these cities and the significant participation observed during a similar protest held on December 26 in Karachi. In contrast, participation in Islamabad is likely to be restricted to the mid-to-high dozens, given precedent. Participation is likely to increase if additional Shiite groups, such as the Majlis Wahdat-e-Muslimeen (MWM), join the demonstrations.
  2. The authorities are expected to bolster security measures in the vicinity of the aforementioned protest locations to oversee the proceedings. These measures will include deploying security personnel and setting up barricades. Such measures are also likely to be extended outside government buildings, especially in Islamabad, Karachi, and Lahore.
  3. There is a latent risk of localized scuffles between protesters and authorities, particularly if protesters become unruly, attempt to breach security measures, or block nearby roads. In such cases, the authorities are likely to resort to baton charges and the use of tear gas to maintain law and order and also enforce roadblocks near press clubs and along the protest route in Islamabad. Should the potential unrest escalate, stricter measures may be implemented, reflecting the authorities’ low tolerance for such activities. Significant disruptions to vehicular traffic are anticipated in the aforementioned locations due to the slated nationwide protests on December 27.

Recommendations:

Those operating or residing in Pakistan on December 27 are advised to maintain vigilance in the aforementioned locations due to the slated nationwide protests and related risk of unrest.

COUNTRY RISK LEVEL High
AFFECTED AREA Pakistan
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL Medium
STRENGTH OF SOURCE Credible