23
Oct 2025
11:25 UTC
Netherlands Tactical: Tweede Kamer elections to take place nationwide on October 29; maintain heightened vigilance near associated protests
Current Situation
- Elections for the Tweede Kamer, the House of Representatives, will take place nationwide on October 29. Polling stations will be open from 07:30 to 21:00 (local time).
- The elections are being held following the collapse of the governing coalition on June 6, after the right-wing Partij voor de Vrijheid (PVV), led by Geert Wilders, withdrew from the coalition over disagreements on migration policy. Prime Minister Dick Schoof’s cabinet continues to serve in a caretaker capacity until a new government is formed.
- Voters will elect the 150 members of the Tweede Kamer under a proportional representation system, in which seats are distributed according to each party’s national vote share. Eligible voters include all Dutch citizens aged 18 or older.
- As of writing, no extraordinary security measures have been announced by the Dutch National Police.
Source: Tweede Kramer
Assessments & Forecast
- Authorities are likely to deploy a reinforced security presence around polling stations, public squares, and government offices to ensure orderly voting and prevent potential election-related disturbances.
- Localized travel disruptions are expected nationwide due to increased movement around polling stations, road closures, and campaign activities. Public transport networks, including NS Rail and municipal tram and bus services, may experience delays or rerouting in major cities.
- Political gatherings and spontaneous demonstrations are expected on October 29 and in the days preceding and immediately following the vote, particularly near government buildings in major cities such as The Hague, Amsterdam, and Rotterdam. This is especially so given heightened tensions among segments of the public over contentious issues, including immigration policy, the Israel-Hamas conflict, and climate activism.
- FORECAST: In the context of the elections, several groups are expected to increase visibility in the coming days in an attempt to exert political pressure. Given recent escalations in migration-related protests nationwide, anti-immigration and pro-asylum demonstrations are likely near asylum centers and municipal offices in the coming days. These protests will continue to carry a high risk for unrest, especially protests organized by anti-immigration and far-right groups. Unrest will likely manifest as clashes between opposing groups and the police, as well as property damage – including vandalism and even arson.
- FORECAST: Separately, climate activist groups, particularly Extinction Rebellion (XR), are expected to intensify leading up to the election, with a protest already announced for October 28. Indeed, XR has publicly announced plans to “increase pressure ahead of the vote” through disruptive but typically nonviolent methods, including road blockades and sit-ins near government buildings and major thoroughfares. While these protests are organized as non-violent civil disobedience, given that road blockades of motorways are illegal, they have previously led to clashes with police dispersing demonstrators, with police known to use water cannons.
- FORECAST: Pro-Palestinian protests are also expected to continue in the coming days, amid allegations of ceasefire violations between Hamas and Israel. These protests are expected to call on politicians to cease ties with Israel, including through divestment and establishing arms embargos. These protests carry an elevated risk of unrest due to heightened tensions, with previous pro-Palestinian protests recording clashes with police – including on October 3 in Amsterdam, where police arrested 205 protesters following clashes.
- FORECAST: Security agencies are also likely to maintain an elevated security detail due to recent political violence threats. Earlier in October, Geert Wilders was reportedly among the intended targets of a foiled UAV-based terror plot in Belgium. Additionally, Dutch police detained a suspect on October 22 over online threats directed at Wilders, prompting a tightening of personal security measures and the cancellation of several PVV campaign appearances. While no imminent attack threat has been confirmed, authorities are expected to maintain heightened vigilance around high-profile political figures, campaign sites, and polling centers through election day.
Recommendations
- Those operating or residing in the Netherlands in the days leading up to and following October 29 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance in the vicinity of any protest due to the heightened risk for unrest.
- Those operating or residing in the Netherlands on October 29 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance in the vicinity of all polling stations as a precaution.
- Allot for disruptions to travel nationwide on October 29 due to the elections.
COUNTRY RISK LEVEL
Low
AFFECTED AREA
Netherlands
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL
Medium
STRENGTH OF SOURCE
Confirmed
Current Situation
- Elections for the Tweede Kamer, the House of Representatives, will take place nationwide on October 29. Polling stations will be open from 07:30 to 21:00 (local time).
- The elections are being held following the collapse of the governing coalition on June 6, after the right-wing Partij voor de Vrijheid (PVV), led by Geert Wilders, withdrew from the coalition over disagreements on migration policy. Prime Minister Dick Schoof’s cabinet continues to serve in a caretaker capacity until a new government is formed.
- Voters will elect the 150 members of the Tweede Kamer under a proportional representation system, in which seats are distributed according to each party’s national vote share. Eligible voters include all Dutch citizens aged 18 or older.
- As of writing, no extraordinary security measures have been announced by the Dutch National Police.
Source: Tweede Kramer
Assessments & Forecast
- Authorities are likely to deploy a reinforced security presence around polling stations, public squares, and government offices to ensure orderly voting and prevent potential election-related disturbances.
- Localized travel disruptions are expected nationwide due to increased movement around polling stations, road closures, and campaign activities. Public transport networks, including NS Rail and municipal tram and bus services, may experience delays or rerouting in major cities.
- Political gatherings and spontaneous demonstrations are expected on October 29 and in the days preceding and immediately following the vote, particularly near government buildings in major cities such as The Hague, Amsterdam, and Rotterdam. This is especially so given heightened tensions among segments of the public over contentious issues, including immigration policy, the Israel-Hamas conflict, and climate activism.
- FORECAST: In the context of the elections, several groups are expected to increase visibility in the coming days in an attempt to exert political pressure. Given recent escalations in migration-related protests nationwide, anti-immigration and pro-asylum demonstrations are likely near asylum centers and municipal offices in the coming days. These protests will continue to carry a high risk for unrest, especially protests organized by anti-immigration and far-right groups. Unrest will likely manifest as clashes between opposing groups and the police, as well as property damage – including vandalism and even arson.
- FORECAST: Separately, climate activist groups, particularly Extinction Rebellion (XR), are expected to intensify leading up to the election, with a protest already announced for October 28. Indeed, XR has publicly announced plans to “increase pressure ahead of the vote” through disruptive but typically nonviolent methods, including road blockades and sit-ins near government buildings and major thoroughfares. While these protests are organized as non-violent civil disobedience, given that road blockades of motorways are illegal, they have previously led to clashes with police dispersing demonstrators, with police known to use water cannons.
- FORECAST: Pro-Palestinian protests are also expected to continue in the coming days, amid allegations of ceasefire violations between Hamas and Israel. These protests are expected to call on politicians to cease ties with Israel, including through divestment and establishing arms embargos. These protests carry an elevated risk of unrest due to heightened tensions, with previous pro-Palestinian protests recording clashes with police – including on October 3 in Amsterdam, where police arrested 205 protesters following clashes.
- FORECAST: Security agencies are also likely to maintain an elevated security detail due to recent political violence threats. Earlier in October, Geert Wilders was reportedly among the intended targets of a foiled UAV-based terror plot in Belgium. Additionally, Dutch police detained a suspect on October 22 over online threats directed at Wilders, prompting a tightening of personal security measures and the cancellation of several PVV campaign appearances. While no imminent attack threat has been confirmed, authorities are expected to maintain heightened vigilance around high-profile political figures, campaign sites, and polling centers through election day.
Recommendations
- Those operating or residing in the Netherlands in the days leading up to and following October 29 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance in the vicinity of any protest due to the heightened risk for unrest.
- Those operating or residing in the Netherlands on October 29 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance in the vicinity of all polling stations as a precaution.
- Allot for disruptions to travel nationwide on October 29 due to the elections.
COUNTRY RISK LEVEL
Low
AFFECTED AREA
Netherlands
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL
Medium
STRENGTH OF SOURCE
Confirmed
Related Reports
Netherlands
-
TravelNetherlands Tactical: Railway disruptions ongoing between Amsterdam Central, AMS Airport due to signal failure as of afternoon hours (local time) on November 1; allot for disruptions -
TravelNetherlands Tactical: Firefighting operations ongoing near Kajuitweg in Amsterdam as of afternoon hours (local time) on October 31; maintain heightened vigilance -
ProtestNetherlands Tactical: Police designate Utrecht city center as security risk areas due to far-right protest, counter-protest on October 26; avoid nonessential travel -
ProtestNetherlands Tactical: Climate march slated at Malieveld in The Hague at 13:00 (local time) on October 26; maintain heightened vigilance
Related Reports
Netherlands
-
TravelNetherlands Tactical: Railway disruptions ongoing between Amsterdam Central, AMS Airport due to signal failure as of afternoon hours (local time) on November 1; allot for disruptions
-
TravelNetherlands Tactical: Firefighting operations ongoing near Kajuitweg in Amsterdam as of afternoon hours (local time) on October 31; maintain heightened vigilance
-
ProtestNetherlands Tactical: Police designate Utrecht city center as security risk areas due to far-right protest, counter-protest on October 26; avoid nonessential travel
-
ProtestNetherlands Tactical: Climate march slated at Malieveld in The Hague at 13:00 (local time) on October 26; maintain heightened vigilance