Armed Conflict

27
Mar 2026
12:38 UTC

MENA Alert (UPDATE): Iran threatens to attack hotels hosting US military personnel in MENA region on March 27; take precautions

Current Situation:

  • On March 27, Iran’s state-affiliated media reported that Tehran issued a warning to hotels across the region, particularly in Bahrain and the UAE, advising them not to accommodate US military personnel.
  • The warning stated that any such facilities would be deemed legitimate military targets and added to Iran’s target list.
  • The report referenced other reports suggesting that, due to damage Iran inflicted on US bases in the region, these sites have been evacuated, with US military personnel operating from hotels and other remote places.
  • Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also referenced such reports during the morning of March 27.
  • The report also extended more explicit threats against hotels in Syria, namely the Four Seasons and Sheraton Hotels in Damascus, claiming that they host US, Israeli, and British personnel.
  • During the morning hours of March 27, the Australian Government’s Foreign Ministry reported an unspecified ongoing threat in the vicinity of Dubai’s Le Meridien Dubai Hotel (near Dubai Airport) and later deleted the post.

Source: Fars News

Assessments & Forecast:

  1. Iran has issued multiple calls for the evacuation of whole cities, as well as specific areas and venues throughout the Middle East, as part of its current war effort, some of which are part of psychological warfare campaigns.
  2. That being said, Iran (and some of its proxies) has already targeted hotels in the region, with the most prominent flashpoints for such action being Bahrain and northern Iraq, with claims that such venues hosted US military personnel.
  3. Given the persistent conflict between Iran and the US, despite ongoing mediation efforts between the parties, Iran continues to try to exert influence and leverage over the US as part of the war effort. In the current context, the Iranian threat likely wishes to capitalize upon the circulation of reports, particularly one American report citing US officials that indicated that due to damage to US bases in the region, many US military personnel were forced to “relocate to hotels and office spaces throughout the region.” It thus seeks to create an additional pressure point against the US by pressuring businesses, especially hotels, to expel US personnel from their venues.
  4. Despite the degradation of Iran’s attack capabilities overall, Tehran’s threat is likely credible both from the perspective of capabilities, particularly those involving the use of UAVs, and from the perspective of intent. This is because even limited Iranian attacks on a prominent hotel or a few hotels in the region, which would be a more likely scenario currently, would convey a deterrent message and help Iran manifest the influence it is aiming to achieve with the current campaign.
  5. If this were to manifest in kinetic Iranian attacks, countries like the UAE and Bahrain, as well as northern Iraq, would likely be chosen, as also indicated in the initial threat. Nevertheless, the threat would still extend to other countries in the region.
  6. Therefore, both prominent venues and businesses, as well as travelers relying on hotels in the region, should take precautionary measures.

Recommendations:

  1. Continue to broadly implement a shelter-in-place procedure in the region.
  2. Refresh security protocols in accommodation venues and take precautions to minimize risks as much as possible.
  3. As a general precaution, refrain from staying above the sixth floor in high-rise buildings, in consideration of firefighting constraints above this level.
  4. Conduct arena-specific and timely risk assessments.
  5. Remain cognizant of and adhere to authorities’ instructions, especially with regard to responses to sirens and aerial attacks.
AFFECTED AREA UAE, Bahrain, MENA Region
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL Extreme
STRENGTH OF SOURCE Confirmed

Current Situation:

  • On March 27, Iran’s state-affiliated media reported that Tehran issued a warning to hotels across the region, particularly in Bahrain and the UAE, advising them not to accommodate US military personnel.
  • The warning stated that any such facilities would be deemed legitimate military targets and added to Iran’s target list.
  • The report referenced other reports suggesting that, due to damage Iran inflicted on US bases in the region, these sites have been evacuated, with US military personnel operating from hotels and other remote places.
  • Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also referenced such reports during the morning of March 27.
  • The report also extended more explicit threats against hotels in Syria, namely the Four Seasons and Sheraton Hotels in Damascus, claiming that they host US, Israeli, and British personnel.
  • During the morning hours of March 27, the Australian Government’s Foreign Ministry reported an unspecified ongoing threat in the vicinity of Dubai’s Le Meridien Dubai Hotel (near Dubai Airport) and later deleted the post.

Source: Fars News

Assessments & Forecast:

  1. Iran has issued multiple calls for the evacuation of whole cities, as well as specific areas and venues throughout the Middle East, as part of its current war effort, some of which are part of psychological warfare campaigns.
  2. That being said, Iran (and some of its proxies) has already targeted hotels in the region, with the most prominent flashpoints for such action being Bahrain and northern Iraq, with claims that such venues hosted US military personnel.
  3. Given the persistent conflict between Iran and the US, despite ongoing mediation efforts between the parties, Iran continues to try to exert influence and leverage over the US as part of the war effort. In the current context, the Iranian threat likely wishes to capitalize upon the circulation of reports, particularly one American report citing US officials that indicated that due to damage to US bases in the region, many US military personnel were forced to “relocate to hotels and office spaces throughout the region.” It thus seeks to create an additional pressure point against the US by pressuring businesses, especially hotels, to expel US personnel from their venues.
  4. Despite the degradation of Iran’s attack capabilities overall, Tehran’s threat is likely credible both from the perspective of capabilities, particularly those involving the use of UAVs, and from the perspective of intent. This is because even limited Iranian attacks on a prominent hotel or a few hotels in the region, which would be a more likely scenario currently, would convey a deterrent message and help Iran manifest the influence it is aiming to achieve with the current campaign.
  5. If this were to manifest in kinetic Iranian attacks, countries like the UAE and Bahrain, as well as northern Iraq, would likely be chosen, as also indicated in the initial threat. Nevertheless, the threat would still extend to other countries in the region.
  6. Therefore, both prominent venues and businesses, as well as travelers relying on hotels in the region, should take precautionary measures.

Recommendations:

  1. Continue to broadly implement a shelter-in-place procedure in the region.
  2. Refresh security protocols in accommodation venues and take precautions to minimize risks as much as possible.
  3. As a general precaution, refrain from staying above the sixth floor in high-rise buildings, in consideration of firefighting constraints above this level.
  4. Conduct arena-specific and timely risk assessments.
  5. Remain cognizant of and adhere to authorities’ instructions, especially with regard to responses to sirens and aerial attacks.
AFFECTED AREA UAE, Bahrain, MENA Region
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL Extreme
STRENGTH OF SOURCE Confirmed

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