Current Situation – Israel’s public broadcaster reported that the Rafah Border Crossing, situated at the border between Egypt and the Gaza Strip, is set to reopen on January 31, ahead of the originally scheduled date of February 2. The report further indicated that the European Union Border Assistance Mission (EUBAM) to Rafah would oversee operations at the crossing, which will be used by Palestinians from Gaza who are not affiliated with Hamas and are identified under the Palestinian Authority (PA). Under the terms of the agreement, operatives within Hamas’ military wing will be permitted to utilize the crossing for medical treatment abroad, subject to Shin Bet approval. 

Recommendations – Those operating or residing in Egypt, Israel and the Palestinian Territories and intending to transit via the Rafah Border Crossing on January 31 and over the coming days are advised to remain cognizant of authorities’ updates regarding the resumption of operations at the crossing.  

Current Situation – The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) reported conducting airstrikes on several Hezbollah-linked sites in Lebanon’s Bekaa governorate overnight between January 30-31, citing threats to both Israeli territory and IDF personnel. One strike reportedly targeted a military facility in Yanta, near the Lebanon-Syria border, allegedly used for underground weapons manufacturing and arms smuggling. Additionally, on January 30, the IDF carried out strikes in southern Lebanon, including Kfarkela, Aitaroun, Taybeh, and Marjaayoun. 

Assessments & Forecast – The IDF operations on the night of January 30-31 followed the interception of a UAV launched from Lebanese territory on January 30, which the IDF described as a ceasefire violation. The strikes in Bekaa were likely intended as retaliation and to signal Israel’s intolerance for Hezbollah’s actions while also aiming to disrupt the group’s operational capabilities. These events reflect persistent mistrust, with the IDF aiming to disrupt Hezbollah’s operations and Hezbollah seeking to reassert its presence. Reports of civilian casualties in Bekaa could trigger a response from Hezbollah in the coming hours. However, a broader escalation remains unlikely, given both sides’ interest in avoiding a full-scale confrontation. 

Recommendations – Those operating or residing in Lebanon or Israel on January 31 and over the coming days are advised to avoid travel to the Israel-Lebanon border area and monitor regional developments. Those operating or residing Israel are advised remain cognizant of authorities’ updates and any changes to the Home Front Command (HFC) guidelines.  

Current Situation – Activists from the “National Working Group for Palestine/Morocco” have scheduled a protest stand in front of the Moroccan Parliament building in Rabat at 17:00 (local time) on January 31. The protest is being held in solidarity with the slain Hamas leaders, following Hamas’ confirmation of the death of Mohammed al-Deif and other leaders on January 30. 

Recommendations – Those operating or residing in Rabat during the early evening hours of January 31 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance and allot for disruptions to travel due to the slated protest in front of the Moroccan Parliament. 

Current Situation – According to reports, the drilling was conducted by an Emirati oil company in partnership with Egypt’s Gulf of Suez Petroleum Company (GUPCO). Preliminary tests on the 16-foot-thick Hawar layer indicated a daily production potential exceeding 2000 barrels. GUPCO is set to drill two more wells to increase output to 5,000 barrels. 

Assessments & Forecast – This follows a similar large-scale discovery by a US-based energy company in early January at the North Marakia block off Egypt’s northern coast. Cairo has reportedly announced plans to increase crude oil production by nine percent in 2024-25 through foreign direct investment (FDI). Egypt consumes approximately 12 million tons of diesel and 6.7 million tons of gasoline annually, with a significant share imported, underscoring the need for new discoveries to reduce import costs. Although the discovery is significant, it is unlikely to immediately impact Egypt’s energy security due to the extended timelines required for developing extraction infrastructure. However, continued success in exploration will likely encourage Egypt to pursue further discoveries, particularly in collaboration with foreign partners. Given these strategic priorities, similar drilling operations are likely in the coming months. 

Current Situation – Protests were reported in Giza, Cairo, Kafr el-Sheikh, Ismailia, Port Said, Menoufia, Mahalla al-Kubra, Beheira, Gharbia, and Sharqia, with demonstrators boarding buses toward North Sinai’s Rafah. Meanwhile, groups such as the Nation’s Future Party and the National Salvation Front reported organized pro-government gatherings across the country. 

Assessments & Forecast – This follows US President Donald Trump’s statement suggesting that Egypt and Jordan should accept more Palestinian refugees, potentially relocating enough of the population to “clean out” the Gaza Strip. In response, Egyptian President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi reportedly reaffirmed Egypt’s stance against the deportation or displacement of Palestinians and reiterated Cairo’s support for the “Palestinian cause.” Although protests are banned in Egypt, authorities likely permitted these large-scale gatherings as they reaffirm support for the Egyptian government’s stance. These protests also highlight the sensitivity around accepting additional refugees into Egypt, particularly given the country’s ongoing socioeconomic challenges. Furthermore, such a transfer would be perceived as undermining the Palestinian cause, which would have a significant demoralizing effect in the Arab world. While further protests are unlikely given the low probability of Egypt accepting Trump’s proposal, they cannot be completely ruled out. 

Current Situation – The Israel Police stated that they conducted an operation in Aqabat Jabr, approximately 22 km east of Jerusalem, to prevent an imminent attack, detaining one suspect. In a separate statement, the police reported killing a “wanted” individual in Nablus who was allegedly involved in planning attacks on Israeli targets. Meanwhile, on January 29, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) carried out an airstrike in Tamun, northern West Bank, killing ten individuals. Images from the funeral procession show nine of the deceased wrapped in the flags of the Islamic State, Hamas, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. 

Assessments & Forecast – The latest developments occur amid the ongoing IDF operations in militant strongholds such as Jenin and Tamun, where casualties from the latest airstrike underscores the entrenched presence of multiple terrorist groups. These events further highlight the elevated risk of militancy in the West Bank, likely amplified by prisoner released under the Israel-Hamas truce. The release of hundreds of prisoners has likely facilitated the reintegration of former operatives into terrorist organizations and plausibly strengthened recruitment efforts by boosting morale. Israeli counter-militancy operations are likely to continue in the coming days.  

Current Situation – According to the EU’s statement, this agreement is backed by a financial package for 2025-27 worth three billion EUR, which includes 1.4 billion EUR in investments in Jordan. The partnership is structured around five main pillars, including political, security, and trade cooperation.   

Assessments & Forecast – This partnership marks a deepening of Jordan-EU cooperation, building on their already strong socioeconomic and political ties. The EU is likely increasing its support to Jordan due to its relative stability in a volatile region, particularly amid developments in Syria, Lebanon, and Israel. This assistance also aims to strengthen Jordan’s financial position as it hosts approximately 730,000 refugees. As part of the stated security objectives, Jordan is likely expected to take measures to prevent its territory from being used for illegal immigration, narcotics trafficking, and organized crime into Europe. For Jordan, the partnership reinforces its role as a key Western ally, enhancing its geopolitical influence and regional standing. Additionally, EU macro-financial support and investments will likely improve economic fundamentals and accelerate growth, mitigating the impact of recent conflicts to its economy. Within this framework, further agreements between Jordan and the EU are likely. 

Current Situation – Residents reportedly attacked the Green Mountain Security Directorate office and police patrols, demanding the reinstatement of the Shahat Security Directorate, which had been merged into the Green Mountain Directorate. Protesters condemned the alleged ill-treatment and marginalization under the new directorate, with some accusing officials of extortion and harassment. In response, the Interior Ministry of the Government of National Stability (GNS) formed an investigative committee and called for restraint to avoid further escalation. 

Assessments & Forecast – Grievances against security forces are common in Libya, largely due to corruption and lack of accountability. Although rare, attacks on authorities, particularly in Libyan National Army-controlled eastern regions, are not unprecedented. For instance, protests in Derna in 2023 and Tobruk in 2022 led to the vandalism of government buildings. Despite this, the attack on security forces in Shahat remains notable, as it may indicate growing public frustration with the authorities, even in areas traditionally seen as politically stable under LNA control. While further such instances cannot be ruled out, the potential for widespread unrest in eastern-Libya is likely to remain limited. 

Current Situation – The Ankara Declaration was signed during a trilateral meeting in Ankara, focusing on strengthening trade, investment, logistics, and infrastructure development. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan hailed “the Middle Corridor” [referring to the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR)] as “the most reliable, swift, and cost-effective trade route connecting Asia and Europe.”
Assessments & Forecast – The Ankara Declaration underscores Turkey’s efforts to position itself as a leader among Turkic states by leveraging ethnic, cultural, and linguistic ties. By promoting the Middle Corridor, Ankara likely aims to attract more international investment and stimulate trade along this route, positioning it as a viable alternative to the Suez Canal and Russian-controlled routes. This in turn will accord Turkey with significant economic benefits including transit fees, job creation, and infrastructural development. The declaration’s stated intent to invest in Azerbaijan’s Karabakh and East Zangezur regions is likely intended to give Turkey opportunities to expand its economic influence in the south Caucasus and improve bilateral ties with Azerbaijan. Overall, further agreements and infrastructure initiatives related to strengthening Turkey’s position as a transit hub can be expected in the coming months. 

Current Situation – Turkey announced the resumption of rail passenger transportation between Tehran and Van starting from February. According to Turkey’s Minister of Transport, both countries agreed to find practical solutions for their commercial relations. Iran’s Minister of Road and Urban Planning added that the issue regarding Iran’s suspension of fuel supplies to Turkey “was resolved”.  

Assessments & Forecast – The Tehran-Van train service was initially launched in July 2019, but its operations were reportedly suspended after a short period for unspecified reasons. The resumption of the passenger train service is likely aimed at boosting revenues from the tourism industry in both countries. These latest agreements also come shortly after Turkey’s reported decision in December 2024 to revoke fuel tax exemptions for Iranian vehicles. This move was allegedly in response to Iran’s regulation requiring foreign trucks transiting through the country to pay a fuel surcharge for using Iran’s subsidized diesel, which prompted Iran to stop fuel supplies to Turkish-registered vehicles. While details on what constitutes a resolution remains unclear, the latest developments are intended to ease tensions and strengthen trade relations between the two nations. Overall, the countries will continue to collaborate on mutually beneficial initiatives.