Current Situation – In Bahrain, activists from the “Bahraini Society Against Normalization with Zionist Enemy” have called for a sit-in in front of the society’s headquarters in Manama’s Adliya at 15:30 (local time) on January 24. In Morocco, the “National Working Group for Palestine/Morocco” has called for a protest in front of the Parliament in Rabat at 17:00 on January 24. In Tunisia, activists from the “Tunisian Campaign to Boycott and Oppose Normalization with the Zionist Enemy” have called for a protest march in Tunis starting from Helmi Manai Square in Bab al-Khadra at 16:00 and concluding at Habib Bourguiba Street on January 25. 

Recommendations – Those operating or residing in Bahrain, Morocco, and Tunisia on January 24-25, are advised to maintain heightened vigilance and allot for disruptions in the vicinity of pro-Palestinian protests.

Current Situation – Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly has announced an official paid holiday for employees across ministries, government agencies, public bodies, and both public and private sector companies in observance of the dual anniversaries of the January 25 Revolution and National Police Day. A circular issued by the Ministry of Labor indicates that certain private sector employees may be required to work on the holiday, subject to their employer’s discretion. 

Recommendations – Those operating or residing in Egypt on January 25 are advised to allot for disruptions to business continuity on January 25 as a result of complete closures of public offices, government ministries, and private businesses. 

Current Situation – In Tel Aviv, the protests are slated at Kirya Complex’s Begin Gate at 18:00, HaBima Square at 19:00, Menachem Begin Street at 16:00, Hostages’ Square and Begin Gate at 20:00, and at Tel Aviv’s Jaffa Clock Tower and the HaHalacha Bridge at 17:30. A rally will be held in Jerusalem’s Paris Square at 20:00.  

Assessments & Forecast – The demonstrations in Tel Aviv are expected to draw a significant turnout, potentially reaching the high hundreds. Based on previous incidents, protesters may attempt to block key routes such as Kaplan Street and possibly the Ayalon Highway. Due to the central locations of these protests, security forces are likely to increase their presence at protest sites and may deploy riot control measures if necessary. Consequently, localized clashes between protesters and security forces remain a possibility. In Jerusalem, a smaller turnout is expected, with numbers likely reaching the high dozens. Heightened security measures are anticipated around Paris Square. While the demonstration is expected to proceed largely peacefully, localized tensions between protesters and security forces cannot be entirely ruled out. Traffic disruptions are likely in both cities as the protest unfolds.    

Recommendations – Those operating or residing in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem on January 25 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance and allot for disruptions in the vicinity of the protest sites due to the slated protests and associated risk of localized unrest.    

Current Situation – During a telephonic conversation, the Presidents of Egypt and Russia discussed the project to establish a Russian industrial zone in the Suez Canal Economic Zone (SCEZ). The two leaders also discussed the planned construction Egypt’s first nuclear power plant in El Dabba.  

Assessments & Forecast – The recent discussions build upon a 2018 industrial zone agreement between Moscow and Cairo, which was reportedly annulled by Russia in 2023 for unspecified reasons. The renewed dialogue signals a reinvigoration of economic relations between the two nations. The project is likely to enhance trade and investment flows, while also offering favorable conditions for the localization of Russian companies, particularly in Egypt’s infrastructure sectors. This is likely to result in a boost to Egypt’s economy, which faced a challenging year in 2024, including a decline in Suez Canal revenues due to regional conflicts. Moreover, Russia’s development of a nuclear power plant will likely address the country’s escalating energy needs amid a domestic crisis. Overall, the latest talks reflect a commitment to advancing long-term projects with mutual benefits. Further discussions are expected to occur in the coming months. 

Current Situation – A report citing Western security officials states that two Iranian-flagged vessels are transporting over 1,000 tons of sodium perchlorate intended for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). One ship has already departed China’s Daishan while the other is set to leave in February with 22 containers.  

Assessments & Forecast – The reported shipment of sodium perchlorate could yield approximately 960 tons of ammonium perchlorate, a controlled substance critical for solid rocket propellant, sufficient to produce propellant for an estimated 260 medium-range Iranian missiles. Iran and China maintain strategic bilateral relations, driven by mutual interest and their shared adversarial stance toward the US including efforts to circumvent US sanctions. For example, the US has accused Iran of exporting its sanctioned oil to China and has sanctioned several entities based in China for allegedly supporting Iran’s military and defense efforts. While unconfirmed, the latest reports appear plausible and align with Iran’s broader strategy to bolster its military capabilities and strengthen its strategic posture against adversaries such as Israel and the US. Despite expected Western condemnation and the threat of sanctions, similar developments and cooperation between Beijing and Tehran is expected to persist.

Current Situation – In a telephonic conversation with US President Donald Trump, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) announced a commitment to increase investment and trade with the US by 600 billion USD over the next four years, and potentially beyond that. The two leaders also discussed the kingdom’s international economic ambitions and ways to increase the mutual prosperity of the two nations. 

Assessments & Forecast – This marked President Trump’s inaugural phone call with a foreign leader since assuming office, underscoring the strategic importance he places on his relationship with MbS. It likely signals an intent to continue the robust partnership with Riyadh established during his first term, which was characterized by significant military and economic collaboration. From a Saudi perspective, MbS’s statement highlights Saudi Arabia’s commitment to strengthening bilateral ties with the Trump administration, likely driven by its aim to secure a major defense agreement with Washington that includes long-term US security guarantees. Moreover, the kingdom seeks to advance substantial investments to further initiatives aligned with its Vision 2030 objectives. Overall, Washington and Riyadh are likely to pursue bilateral agreements in the coming months. 

Current Situation – The fire at a ski resort hotel in Bolu province’s Seben and reportedly also wounded 51 others. The blaze is believed to have originated in the restaurant area of the hotel. Turkey’s Justice Minister announced the detention of 11 individuals, including the hotel owner, as part of the ongoing investigation. 

Assessments & Forecast – The recent fire incident is notable due to the large number of casualties and is likely to intensify concerns about inadequate safety standards in large commercial establishments. This is because reports indicate deficiencies in the hotel’s fire safety systems, with many survivors citing the absence of fire alarms, fire exits, and fire extinguishers. Local authorities have also revealed that the hotel’s fire systems had not been properly inspected, and the fire department had allegedly not issued a favorable report since 2007. This scrutiny is likely to prompt authorities to take stringent action against those responsible to demonstrate accountability. As the investigation progresses, further detentions may also occur. Additionally, the potential for public protests against lax enforcement cannot be ruled out in the coming days and weeks. 

Current Situation – The Houthis allegedly carried out a drone strike targeting Southern Transitional Council (STC) positions on the Tharra front, located between al-Bayda and Abyan, accompanied by heavy mortar shelling. Meanwhile, the Taiz Axis Media Center reported that their forces had shot down a Houthi reconnaissance drone near Taiz city. Armed clashes were also reported between STC and Houthi forces in Marib, Hajjah, Taiz, and al-Bayda governorates. 

Assessments & Forecast – Intermittent skirmishes between Houthi forces and anti-Houthi factions have been reported at the Tharra front in recent months. For instance, Houthi forces targeted and clashed with Presidential Command Council (PCC)-aligned forces using drones at the Tharra front, resulting in the injury of one PCC soldier. The recent attacks in Lawdar and other frontlines appear to be part of the Houthis’ broader strategy to demonstrate their ability to challenge and inflict losses on STC-affiliated forces. This is likely to prompt the STC to deploy additional security forces along the Tharra front, where similar Houthi attacks are likely to be reported in the coming days. However, at the current juncture, they are expected to remain small-scale.