Current Situation – On September 15, an anti-Taliban demonstration is slated to take place at the police detention center on Hernalser Gurtel in Vienna at 16:00 (local time). The protest is being called to denounce alleged government cooperation with the Taliban in Afghanistan. The protesters are particularly critical of Austria’s Ministry of the Interior hosting a delegation from the Taliban in Vienna to discuss the deportation of Afghan nationals on September 11. 

Assessments & Forecast – Based on social media traction, the demonstration is likely to garner a turnout in the mid dozens. Given precedent, the protest is expected to transpire largely peacefully and without instances of unrest. Regardless, a bolstered security presence is expected to be deployed in the vicinity of Hernalser Gurtel as a precautionary measure. Localized disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular movement should also be anticipated near the protest during the afternoon hours. 

Recommendations – Those operating or residing in Vienna on September 15 are advised to allot for disruptions to travel near Hernalser Gurtel from afternoon hours onwards due to the slated protest. 

Current Situation – On September 13, a fire in a fuse box in Lehrte, Lower Saxony, caused disruptions, including traffic stoppages, on the rail line between Hannover and Berlin. Deutsche Bahn (DB) cited “vandalism” by a third party as the cause of the fire, though police have not confirmed this. Disruptions will persist through September 15. Official updates can be found here (in German).  

Assessments & Forecast – The modus operandi of the fire, set in a fuse box, aligns with that of far-left groups engaging in transport sabotage, as seen in the deliberate fires in signal and cable infrastructure between Duisburg and Dusseldorf set by far-left groups in August 2025. Given this, the involvement of such groups in the incident is likely. However, the potential involvement of other criminal elements or state-backed actors also cannot be ruled out. With disruptions expected to persist in the coming days, demand for alternate methods of transport, including buses and taxis, is likely to increase. An associated increase in traffic congestion on main roads between Hannover and Berlin is also likely as commuters resort to using private vehicles.  

Recommendations – Those intending to travel via DB between Berlin and Hanover on September 14 and in the coming days are advised to remain cognizant of the authorities’ updates regarding rail disruptions. 

Current Situation – On September 15, Serbian farmers’ associations will stage a 24-hour tractor protest in front of the Government Building on 11 Nemanjina street in Belgrade from 12:00 (local time). An additional protest will be held in Novi Sad, in front of the Assembly of Vojvodina government building at the same time. The protests are supported by student anti-government organizations.  

Assessments & Forecast – Considering precedent, and support by student protesters, the protests are expected to attract turnouts ranging from the high hundreds to low thousands. Given heightened anti-government sentiments, they carry an elevated risk of unrest in the form of clashes between protesters and the police. Despite organizers’ claims, given that both farmers and student groups have erected ad hoc blockades during demonstrations, the risk of such cannot be completely ruled out. If this occurs, it will raise the risk of confrontation with police as they attempt to disperse the protests. As such, a bolstered security presence is likely, with authorities expected to deploy forcible crowd dispersal measures should unrest escalate. Significant disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular movement are likely in the vicinity of the protests. 

Recommendations – Those operating or residing in Belgrade and Novi Sad on September 15 are advised to avoid nonessential travel near the slated protest locations due to the elevated potential for unrest during the farmers’ protests. Allot for disruptions to travel near the protest locations. 

Current Situation – On September 11, a police officer was attacked by a group of youths in Tourcoing’s Pont de Neuville district during a scooter-theft intervention. Video footage shows the officer being punched and kicked while on the ground. He sustained facial injuries, including multiple broken teeth, and remains hospitalized. Authorities arrested three minors in connection with the assault, while two additional suspects are still being sought. 

Assessments & Forecast – The incident highlights the sustained threat of violence against police, particularly when routine interventions are seen as opportunities for confrontation. While the suspects were unknown to police, the severity of the attack reflects a heightened hostility toward law enforcement. This is reinforced by 2024 data showing 10,000 injuries to French gendarmes, with 5,300 occurring while on active duty and the rest while commuting to work or during training exercises, demonstrating the persistent dangers officers face during interventions. With videos circulating on social media, the risk of copycat incidents remains. Although such attacks will primarily be targeted at police, they also pose a latent risk to bystanders when carried out in public spaces. 

Current Situation – On September 12, owners of at least 26 vehicles, predominantly SUVs, reported that their tires had been deflated in Berlin’s Moabit district. Notes left on the affected cars, signed by a group calling itself a “resistance collective,” claimed the actions were a protest against SUVs, citing risks to cyclists and pedestrians and contributions to air pollution. Authorities are investigating the incidents as politically motivated property damage. 

Assessments & Forecast — The development reiterates the sustained threat posed by climate activists targeting SUVs and high-end vehicles perceived to be environmentally harmful in Germany, with such incidents recorded in recent months, including in Viersen, North-Rhine-Westphalia on April 23 and in Berlin-Charlottenburg on April 9. Although the name of the collective was not mentioned in the notes, the involvement of the environmentalist group Tyre Extinquishers (TX), which previously claimed responsibility for similar tire-deflation campaigns in multiple countries in recent months, cannot be ruled out. Given the decentralized nature of the group, which makes copycat incidents easy to carry out, similar incidents are expected to recur in Berlin, primarily targeting high-end vehicles in residential areas during the overnight hours. 

Current Situation – On September 13, clashes between two Israeli nationals and three Palestinian men occurred during a pro-Palestinian protest at Syntagma Square in Athens. One Israeli was injured. Authorities confiscated plastic poles from the Palestinian men, two of which had Palestinian flags attached. All five individuals were taken to a police station, but it remains unclear whether any arrests were made. 

Assessments & Forecast – Given the nationalities of those involved, it is highly likely that the clashes stemmed from ongoing geopolitical tensions related to the Israel-Hamas conflict. Furthermore, the incident reflects heightened anti-Israeli sentiment in Greece, as shown by recent pro-Palestinian actions, including port blockades opposing Israeli tourists in Crete, Syros, and Rhodes, and the National Day of Action on August 10 targeting Israeli visitors. Given that the incident occurred during a pro-Palestinian protest, it further underscores the risk of physical confrontations between protesters and Israelis present in their vicinity. As such, individuals visibly displaying Israeli or Jewish symbols, or speaking Hebrew, are at heightened risk of assaults by anti-Israeli elements. 

Current Situation – On September 11, the minority center-right government led by Partido Social Democrata (PSD) initiated a labor reform amending over 100 articles of the labor code. The reform allows small and medium enterprises to dismiss employees without presenting evidence, removes limits on outsourcing, and allows up to two additional working hours per day. The far-right Chega and center-left Partido Socialista (PS) stated they will support the bill when it is submitted to parliament in mid-September. 

Assessments & Forecast – Although the government only holds 91 of 230 seats, Chega and PS hold 118 seats together. As such, their support will ensure the bill receives the 116 votes needed to pass. While the reform may facilitate operational efficiency, it also raises significant concerns regarding workers’ rights and protections. Given that the main labor unions in Portugal have already condemned the reform and warned of strikes, these are likely to occur nationwide in the immediate term. Such labor actions are expected to be carried out by workers in the aviation, transportation, education, and supply chain sectors, causing significant disruptions to travel and business operations.  

Current Situation – During the overnight hours (local time) of September 13–14, Ukraine launched UAV strikes on multiple oil facilities. In the Bashkortostan region, debris from two UAVs caused a fire at a major oil facility near Ufa. In the Leningrad region, the Kirishi refinery was hit, causing a fire and operational disruptions, with no reported casualties. In Perm Krai, an industrial facility in Perm, over 1,500 kilometers from the Ukrainian border, was also struck, though details remain unknown. 

Assessments & Forecast – The Ukrainian airstrikes on oil infrastructure critical to the Russian economy reflect Kyiv’s strategy to reduce Moscow’s war-fighting capacity and constrain its financial resources. By the end of August, these operations had disabled approximately 17 percent of Russia’s oil refining capacity, highlighting the cumulative impact on the energy sector and associated revenue and logistics. Further, the strike in Perm, conducted over 1,500 kilometers from the border, demonstrates Ukraine’s operational reach. Based on precedent, Russia is expected to respond with retaliatory strikes targeting infrastructure and civilians in Ukraine’s eastern regions, including Donetsk and Kharkiv, as well as in central and western regions like Kyiv and Lviv. 

Current Situation – On September 13, between 100,000 and 150,00 people participated in the “Unite the Kingdom” protest march, organized by far-right activist Tommy Robinson, in Whitehall, London. The Metropolitan Police reported “significant aggression” from parts of the crowd, noting that bottles, flares, and other projectiles were thrown at officers, with 26 police officers injured. 5,000 counter-protesters attended a protest by Stand Up To Racism at Trafalgar Square, largely contained from the main march route. However, isolated clashes between opposing groups were reported.  

Assessments & Forecast – The scale of the protest is highly notable, as initial reports estimated a turnout in the high thousands. The turnout was likely a response to online amplification of free speech issues following the September 10 assassination of US conservative commentator Charlie Kirk, which heightened sentiments and served as a rallying point for right-wing groups in the UK. Consequently, the unrest was likely exacerbated by inadequate policing resulting from underestimating crowd size, leaving officers overstretched and less able to prevent clashes or maintain order. In the immediate term, right-wing groups are likely to capitalize on the protest to organize further demonstrations. 

Current Situation – The Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI) arrested two suspects as part of an ongoing investigation into a series of arsons targeting 5G mobile phone masts in west Belfast, Northern Ireland (NI). One suspect was arrested on September 12 and charged with two counts of arson. The other was arrested on September 7 after a 5G mast was set on fire off of Whiterock Road.  

Assessments & Forecast – Despite the arrests, the potential for further arson targeting 5G masts remains high in west Belfast. Since 2023, 23 arson incidents targeting 5G masts in Belfast have been reported, with nine reported between June and September 2025. The risk for attacks primarily stems from conspiracy theories linking 5G to health risks disseminated online. One group, which calls itself “Anarchy 61,” claimed responsibility for several incidents in July, warning that “all masts will come down” unless independent research into 5G safety is conducted. These incidents not only result in significant disruptions for residents and businesses in west Belfast, but also raise the risk of network companies decreasing operations in Belfast due to financial losses and inadequate police action.