Current Situation – On November 4, students are calling for nationwide protests and sit-ins, as well as a boycott of classes. Teachers will participate. A demonstration will be held at the Propylaea in Athens at 11:00 (local time) to denounce a plan proposed by the Ministry of Education on October 25 to expel students who have exceeded the upper limit of their school’s educational capabilities. Media reports suggest that education closures are expected nationwide due to the boycott.

Assessments & Forecast – Based on social media estimates, the demonstration in Athens is likely to see a turnout ranging from the high thousands to low tens of thousands. Protests are also likely in other cities in Greece as well as small sit-ins in schools nationwide. The protest in Athens carries a heightened potential for unrest in the form of clashes between protesters and police. In the event of escalating unrest, authorities are liable to respond with forcible crowd dispersal measures. Severe disruptions to traffic are anticipated in the vicinity of the protest in Athens during the late morning hours.  Disruptions to educational services should be anticipated nationwide.

Recommendations – Those operating or residing in Athens on November 1 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance in the vicinity of the Propylaea due to the heightened risk of unrest at the protest. Allot for travel-related disruptions and disruptions to educational services nationwide. 

Current Situation – Agencia Estatal de Meteorologia – the meteorological agency in Spain – has issued red and orange alerts, the highest and second highest level on a three-tier scale, for heavy rains in southwest Spain, including Alicante, Andalusia, Almeria, Murcia, and Valencia through at least November 3. Authorities have restricted movement in eleven municipalities in Valencia affected by the DANA weather system, limiting volunteer access and private vehicle circulation. In Valencia, locals physically assaulted PM Pedro Sanchez. Rainfall is expected to reach 100 liters per square meter in some areas, with intensifying rain anticipated around 21:00 (local time). Details can be found here  

Assessments & Forecast – Due to the heavy rain forecast in the aforementioned locations, the possibility of further flooding cannot be ruled out over the coming days. As such, the threat to life remains heightened. Moreover, severe disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular movement should be anticipated. Outdoor events are likely to be canceled on short notice in the affected regions. Delays and cancelations of public transport systems and long-distance services are also likely, as already seen in Valencia. Flight delays are also anticipated, including at Valencia Airport (VLC). 

Recommendations – Those operating or residing in Spain on November 3 and in the coming days are advised to remain cognizant of the authorities’ updates regarding weather-related alerts. Allot for disruptions to travel and public utility services. 

Current Situation – On November 1 a joint security defense partnership was signed between the EU and Japan during EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell’s East Asia tour. Brussels and Tokyo agreed to hold regular working-level security and defense dialogue and joint naval exercises. They will also cooperate in cybersecurity defense and nuclear disarmament efforts. The agreement comes a day after North Korea claimed it test-fired a new intercontinental ballistic missile. This is the first security partnership that the EU has signed with an Indo-Pacific country.  

Assessments & Forecast – The agreement highlights growing global security concerns over increasing economic and defense ties between China, North Korea, and Russia – especially given North Korea’s deployment of over 8,000 troops to Russia in late October. This is also evidenced by strengthened coordination between the EU and NATO, as well as NATO enlargement in Europe, since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. In addition to the EU agreement, Japan is also likely to increase defense cooperation with individual European countries, as already seen by joint plans between Japan, the UK, and Italy to develop next-generation fighter jets. 

Current Situation – On November 1, around 19:00 (local time), an individual was physically assaulted and robbed by one assailant in Villejuif, Val-de-Marne, in the southern suburbs of Paris, while leaving the metro. He was subjected to homophobic insults by the assailant. In response, the Creteil prosecutor’s office opened an investigation into a hate crime. The Mayor of Villejuif, Pierre Garzon, condemned the homophobic attack and established a dedicated delegation and a hotline for reporting possible discrimination. 

Assessments & Forecast – The incident underscores the rise in violence against LGBTQ+ individuals in the Paris suburbs, evidenced by an antisemitic and homophobic sexual assault on October 28 in Pantin, northeastern suburbs of Paris. Moreover, crimes against LGBTQ+ people rose by 13 percent in 2023 compared to 2022, including physical and sexual attacks. This incident also highlights the elevated risk of crime on public transportation in France, with the most recent figures from the Interior Ministry indicating that there were 124,570 victims of theft and violence on public transport in 2022. Separately, given media coverage of the assault, there is a potential for protests against hate crimes in Paris in the near term. 

Current Situation – On November 1, at 22:30 (local time) four individuals were stabbed outside the Charlety stadium in Paris. The stabbings occurred during a brawl between supporters of Paris FC following a football match between the club and Rodez AF. Police arrested seven people at the scene, with three taken into custody. The motive remains unconfirmed as of writing. 

Assessments & Forecast – While police have yet to confirm the motive, given the actors involved and the location, the clashes were highly likely linked to football-related violence. This underscores the persistent threat of football hooliganism in France and regionwide, evidenced by violent clashes in Denmark, Germany, Greece, and the Netherlands in October alone. The stabbings are also likely to increase already heightened calls for government action regarding football-related violence, racism, and homophobia. Indeed, following homophobic chants during a football match at Parc de Princes on October 20, Paris-Saint-Germain was ordered to partially close one fan stand as punishment beginning on November 5. However, given the use of weapons on November 1, the government is liable to propose harsher measures, such as banning fans from attending specific matches. 

Current Situation – On November 2, three individuals were seriously injured in an exchange of gunfire in the Hakfort neighborhood of Amsterdam at approximately 20:40 (local time). Police found a firearm and cartridges at the scene, with media reports suggesting this was an automatic firearm. The victims are being treated as suspects, with all three linked to criminal networks in the Netherlands. 

Assessments & Forecast – Considering the victims’ backgrounds, coupled with the use of firearms, this was likely gang-related. The shooting also highlights the lower security landscape in the Biljmermeer district, which has a lower socioeconomic status than other districts of Amsterdam. While crime rates have decreased since the 1990s, Biljmermeer has recorded multiple stabbings and shootings in recent months, with media reports often listing it as a “no-go” zone. While gang-related conflicts in the Netherlands pose a relatively limited threat to bystanders, the fact that the shootings occurred during the evening hours in a highly dense residential area indicates there was a credible threat to bystanders. Given the shootings were likely linked to a rivalry, there is a high probability of retaliatory shootings in the near term. 

Current Situation – According to November 1 reports, Sergei Mironov, the leader of the “A Just Russia – For Truth” party, submitted a bill banning the dissemination of information among children that denies “traditional or spiritual moral values” to the State Duma, the lower house of parliament. The bill proposes to expand the list of types of information deemed harmful to children. Mironov cited the preservation of the “national identity” and “cohesion” of Russian society as justification for the bill. 

Assessments & Forecast – Given that the Duma already passed a bill banning content alleged to promote “childlessness” on October 17, coupled with the ban on all content deemed “LGBTQ+ propaganda” in December 2022, the proposed bill is also likely to pass. The bill increases the scope of individuals and entities deemed critical of the Kremlin, thereby raising the risk of crackdowns and subsequent arrests of alleged dissenters. This is also liable to expand the powers of prosecutors to designate individuals or organizations as “undesirable,” leading to potential legal actions against them. Given precedent, the expansion of the scope of “undesirable” entities is liable to affect organizations operating in Russia. 

Current Situation – Russian airstrikes using unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) targeted Kyiv city during the overnight hours (local time) of November 3. This followed large-scale airstrikes on November 2, which lasted multiple hours. Officials reported that air defense systems destroyed all the UAVs targeting the city. However, debris from intercepted UAVs struck multiple city districts, causing fires and damage to civilian and energy infrastructure. Some injuries were reported.  

Assessments & Forecast – Given the scale and frequency of attacks, this reflects Moscow’s ongoing targeting of civilian areas in the capital city, also seen by airstrikes on Kyiv on October 25, 26, and 29. These barrages are likely aimed at overwhelming air defenses and causing mass panic, as seen on November 2 during the continuous airstrikes. Indeed, the Kyiv City Military Administration indicated that Russian strikes employ new tactics to “confuse” air defense systems, although did not provide further details. Airstrikes are also likely attempts to divert military resources away from the frontlines. As such, given ongoing hostilities in Ukraine’s Donetsk and Russia’s Kursk regions, strikes targeting Kyiv and other major cities will persist in the short to medium term.