Current Situation – The trade unions Nederlandse Vakbondsverbond (FNV) and Christelijk Nationaal Vakverbond (CNV) have called for a nationwide strike by pharmacy workers on November 12. According to the organizer, nearly 10,000 pharmacy workers have been called to participate. However, some pharmacy shops across the country will remain open for urgent medical needs. An associated protest has been announced at Malieveld in The Hague from 10:30 (local time) to 14:30 on November 12. The strike and protest are being organized to demand a new collective labor agreement and an increase in the minimum wage. 

Assessments & Forecast – Based on the mobilizational capabilities of the unions involved, the strike is expected to be widely adhered to, prompting disruptions to pharmacy services nationwide. The slated protest is likely to garner a turnout in the mid to high hundreds. The protest is expected to transpire largely peacefully. A bolstered security presence is likely to be deployed in the vicinity of Malieveld to monitor proceedings. Additionally, there is a potential for pharmacy workers to hold small-scale protests near government offices and pharmacies across the Netherlands, including Amsterdam.  

Recommendations – Those operating or residing in the Netherlands on November 12 are advised to allot for disruptions to pharmacy services due to the slated labor action. Allot for traffic-related disruptions in the vicinity of Malieveld in The Hague due to the associated protest. 

Current Situation – Students associated with Sindicato de Estudiantes, a students’ union, will stage protests nationwide on November 12. The protests are being organized to express solidarity with Valencia flooding victims and to denounce alleged government inaction in the crisis.  In Barcelona, students will stage a protest at Placa Universitat at 12:00 (local time). In Madrid, students will stage a protest at Puerta del Sol at 12:00. Additional protest details are available here (in Spanish). The union has also announced a student strike nationwide. 

Assessments & Forecast – Based on local media estimates, the protests are anticipated to witness varying turnouts, ranging from the low to high hundreds. The demonstrations in Barcelona and Madrid are liable to attract the largest attendance. Given heightened sentiments over the protest issue, the demonstrations hold a potential for unrest in the form of clashes between protesters and police personnel. Demonstrators may also stage school walkouts and block entrances. Authorities are expected to increase security near protest sites and may employ crowd control measures if tensions escalate. Travel disruptions should be anticipated near the aforementioned locations during the slated protest timings. 

Recommendations – Those operating or residing in Spain on November 12 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance in the vicinity of the protest locations due to the potential for unrest. 

Current Situation – On November 9, Industry Minister Marc Ferracci warned that planned manufacturing plant closures in several industries would affect “thousands of jobs” in the coming months. The statement followed the announcement of mass layoffs by two major French companies – a supermarket chain and a tire manufacture. A spokesperson of the Confederation Generale du Travail (CGT) union stated that the development could have a “domino effect” on the subcontractors of “major clients” in all sectors, affecting over 150,000 jobs. 

Assessments & Forecast – The developments are expected to lead a significant increase in labor tensions in the manufacturing sector in France, as evidenced by the statements made by CGT. Considering that industrial production in the country has declined significantly, with factory output falling at its fastest rate in nine months in October, similar plant closures and layoffs in the coming months cannot be ruled out. With that, trade unions and employee associations are expected to organize a series of protests and strikes to denounce the impact on the labor market. Given heightened sentiments, confrontations between workers and law enforcement cannot be ruled out in the protests. 

Current Situation – On November 9, Iris Spranger, Senator of Interior in Berlin, announced that police would be present at all home games of the German-Jewish youth football team TuS Makkabi on games on November 9-10. The measures are in response to an anti-Semitic incident at a TuS Makkabi game in Berlin’s Neukolln neighborhood on November 7. During the game, players from the opposing team and supporters shouted Shoot Jews” and “Free Palestine,” before chasing the Makkabi players with knives and sticks after the match ended.

Assessments & Forecast – The security measures announced reflect the credible threat posed to the players, both in the November 7 match and in future matches. With that, this reiterates the elevated threat of anti-Semitism in Western Europe amid the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict. The targeting of Jewish players combined with the chants of “Free Palestine” demonstrates how anti-Israel sentiment increasingly overlaps with anti-Semitism, raising the threat to Jewish individuals across Europe. Moreover, the incident, against the violent attacks on Israeli football supporters in Amsterdam on November 7, indicates an escalating risk of violent physical attacks on Israelis and Jews regionwide.  

Current Situation – On November 8, an individual climbed the Smolensk Victims’ Monument in Warsaw, carrying ” an object resembling a firearm” and threatening to harm himself. He displayed a Polish flag bearing a social media profile address and the message, “explanation of the Smolensk disaster, what no one will tell you.” The individual was arrested. According to reports, the individual had previously climbed the same monument in October 2023 during which he claimed to be carrying a bomb. No explosives were found.

Assessments & Forecast – Based on available details, including his repetitive targeting of the monument, combined with the messages on the flag, indicate that mental health issues played a role in the incident. The messages indicate that the suspect was motivated by conspiracy-driven beliefs, with various conspiracy theories surrounding the Smolensk incident continuing to circulate on social media. With no confirmation on whether he actually possessed a weapon, coupled with his threats being self-directed, he likely did not pose a credible risk to bystanders. As such, the incident was likely isolated in nature and not reflective of a deterioration in the security landscape of the city. 

Current Situation – According to November 11 reports, US President-elect Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin held a discussion about the Ukraine conflict on November 7. Trump reportedly urged Putin not to escalate hostilities and conveyed an interest in peace talks. While Kyiv initially indicated awareness of the conversation, Ukrainian officials later denied any prior knowledge or approval of such a discussion. Meanwhile, on November 9, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov expressed that Moscow is receptive to Trump’s proposals for peace.

Assessments & Forecast – The reported discussion between Trump and Putin is notable as it marks the first instance of the Kremlin voluntarily discussing a potential end to the conflict with a Western government. This proactiveness from the Kremlin, with top authorities stating that their “openness” to discussions with a Trump-led administration, can be attributed to Moscow’s perception that the USA under Trump would favor Russian interests in potential peace negotiations. Although Ukrainian officials have indicated willingness to work with the new Trump administration, any peace talks are liable to remain protracted, especially amid reports of Trump suggesting that Kyiv should cede some territory to Moscow. 

Current Situation – Per November 11 reports, the regional government of Valencia ruled out resignations despite large scale protests in recent days. On November 9, 130,000 people protested in Valencia city, demanding the government resign and take accountability for the deadly floods that began on October 29 and left over 220 dead. A group of demonstrators clashed with riot police near the city hall, leaving 31 officers injured. In Madrid, violent unrest occurred during a protest by the neo-Nazi Nucleo Nacional near the Partido Socialista Obrero Espanol (PSOE) headquarters. Protesters threw projectiles, set objects alight, and clashed with police.

Assessments & Forecast – With the government ruling out resignations, protests against Valencian President Carlos Mazon and the Partido Popular (PP) party will continue in Valencia. As seen on November 9, these protests are likely to see turnouts in the tens of thousands. Given heightened sentiments, amid stalled relief work, protests carry a heightened potential for unrest, especially in the form of clashes with police. Moreover, as seen in Madrid, radical far-right groups will continue protesting in the near term, with these actions carrying a high risk of violent unrest. 

Current Situation – According to Russian and Ukrainian military bloggers, Russian forces are advancing toward Kurakhove in Donetsk from three directions, as of November 11. This follows reports stating that, on November 9, Russian forces captured Sontsivka village in Donetsk, with this yet to be officially confirmed. Meanwhile, on November 10-11, Russian forces reportedly seized Makarivka and Volchenka villages in Donetsk.

Assessments & Forecast – Reports of Russian forces allegedly approaching Kurakhove from three directions likely reflect attempts to encircle the city. That attacking from the flanks is a common tactic employed by the Russian military in recent captures, adds credence to this. Should Russia succeed in encircling the city, this would involve Ukrainian troops in the vicinity of the city being cut off from the primary logistics route – the N-15 Zaporizhzhia-Donetsk highway – deteriorating Ukraine’s local counterattack and defensive capabilities, including within Kurakhove. Moreover, considering the capture of Kurakhove would aid Russian advances toward Pokrovsk, Moscow is expected to sustain the intensity of operations along this frontline area in the coming weeks. This is especially likely, with Russian forces reportedly stalled in their offensive operation toward Pokrovsk. 

Current Situation – On November 10, around 10:00 (local time), an individual stabbed several people at a street market in Walworth, South London. One person died on-site, while two others sustained injuries. The suspect, a man in his 60s, was apprehended by market traders before police arrived and arrested. Media reports indicate the incident is believed to be mental-health related, and police confirmed it is not being treated as terrorism.

Assessments & Forecast – Reports indicating the assailant’s psychological instability highlight the unpredictable nature of violent incidents perpetrated by such actors. Although police stated the incident is not being treated as terrorism, the modus operandi and the attack location align with tactics and targets observed in previous ideologically motivated attacks, including by Islamist terrorists. This suggests that the possibility of the suspect being influenced by extremist ideologies cannot be ruled out. This is also supported by the July 29 Southport mass stabbing, which was only classed as a terror attack in late October. Moreover, the incident reiterates the continued risk of stabbing attacks, as knives are simple to use, ubiquitously owned, and extremely difficult to ban or detect.