Current Situation – On March 3-4, education sector workers associated with the “FSU SNUipp 31” union will hold a departmental strike along with associated protests across Haute-Garonne, Occitanie. The strike is being organized to denounce the closure of 180 classes in the region, job cuts, and shortages of teachers. On March 3, an associated protest will be held in front of Maison des solidarites in Saint-Gaudens from 17:00 (local time). Additionally, on March 4, a gathering will take place at Toulouse Rectorate in Toulouse at 12:30. 

Assessments & Forecast – Based on the mobilization capabilities of the organizing group, the strike is expected to be widely adhered to. With that, disruptions to education-related services can be expected throughout the strike period in Haute-Garonne. Given precedent, the protests are expected to witness turnouts in the mid to high dozens each. Although the demonstrations are expected to transpire peacefully, a bolstered security presence is expected to be deployed at the protest locations to monitor proceedings. Disruptions to vehicular and pedestrian travel are anticipated in the vicinity of the protest locations during the slated timings. 

Recommendations – Those operating or residing in Haute-Garonne on March 3-4 are advised to allot for disruptions to education services due to the slated labor action. Allot for travel-related disruptions in the vicinity of the protest locations in Toulouse and Saint-Gaudens during the slated hours. 

Current Situation – Authorities have announced that tram operations on Line 6, which runs between Pikrodafni  and Syntagma, in Athens will run on an alternative schedule from March 4 to June 15. During this period, the tram line will operate only between Pikrodafni and Fix stations, with no service to Vouliagmenis Avenue, Zappeio, and Syntagma stations. Passengers can check the status of tram services here. Alternative transportation options, including metro and bus services, will remain operational between Fix and Syntagma stations. The change in schedule was announced due to ongoing construction work on Vassilissis Olgas Avenue in central Athens. 

Recommendations – Those operating or residing in Athens between March 4 and June 15 are advised to allot for disruptions to tram services on line 6 due to construction work. 

Current Situation – On March 4, several events and a protest are scheduled to take place in Rome. A carnival parade will take place starting at Largo Leonardo da Vinci, from 09:30 (local time). Another carnival parade will depart from Via Santa Croce at 16:30. Additionally, a demonstration will take place outside the Ministero delle Imprese e del Made in Italy (MIMIT) building from 14:30. Further details can be found here. 

Assessments & Forecast – Based on official estimates, the carnivals and the protest will likely witness turnouts ranging from low to mid hundreds each. Additionally, security is expected to be heavily bolstered near parades due to heightened concerns over the risk of Islamist attacks targeting major events. Similar measures were implemented in countries like Germany and Austria after an Islamic State (IS) linked outlet published calls for attacks in Europe, including on carnivals. Separately, while the protest on Via Molise is likely to transpire peacefully, given the proximity to a government building, a bolstered police presence is also likely to be deployed as a precautionary measure. Disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular movement are anticipated near the aforementioned locations. 

Recommendations – Those operating or residing in Rome on March 4 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance near the slated carnivals due to the general threat of potential Islamist activities. Allot for travel-related disruptions near the aforementioned locations. 

Current Situation – On March 4, the farmers’ group “Save British Farming” will hold a protest march from Whitehall in Westminster, London from 11:00 (local time). Protesters will march via Trafalgar Square, Northumberland Avenue, Embankment, Westminster Bridge Road, and Parliament Street. The final rally will take place at Whitehall at 13:30. The Metropolitan Police have indicated that the use of tractors or other vehicles in the rally will be banned, citing significant traffic disruptions during previous protests. 

Assessments & Forecast – Based on the organizer’s mobilizational capabilities, the slated protest is likely to attract a turnout in the mid-to-high thousands. Given precedent, protesters may defy the ban on the use of tractors during the protest. This is likely to increase the risk of unrest in the form of clashes between protesters and police. As such, a bolstered security presence can be expected along the march route to monitor proceedings. If protesters do not comply with police instructions, officers are liable to use forcible dispersal measures, including conducting arrests. Significant disruptions to vehicular and pedestrian travel are anticipated in the vicinity of Whitehall from the late morning hours. 

Recommendations – Those operating or residing in London on March 4 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance along the protest route and in the vicinity of Whitehall due to the latent risk of unrest. Allot for disruptions to travel in the vicinity of the slated protest route. 

Current Situation – On March 2, UK PM Keir Starmer hosted a summit of European leaders in London. Starmer claimed that Kyiv’s European allies have agreed to work on a “peace plan” for the Russia-Ukraine conflict that would be presented to the USA. He also announced a four-point plan, which calls for the continued delivery of military aid to Ukraine, among other objectives.  

Assessments & Forecast – The developments are indicative of efforts by European leaders to project unity and solidarity with Ukraine, following the contentious talks between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and US President Donald Trump on February 28. It is also reflective of attempts by Europe to lead efforts to provide military aid to Ukraine, especially amid reports suggesting that Trump may consider a cessation of aid to Kyiv on March 3.  As such, European countries are expected to continue announcing new aid packages for Kyiv in the near term. However, they are likely to face difficulties in filling the gap left by a potential withdrawal of US aid, as they would have to nearly double the current levels of assistance they provide to Kyiv. 

Current Situation – On March 2, around 1700 anti-fascist and left-wing activists clashed with the police during an anti-far-right protest in Lorient, Brittany. Some protesters threw stones and incendiary devices at security forces. They also engaged in acts of vandalism, with the office of the center-left Socialist Party (PS) sustaining damage. Additionally, demonstrators damaged the windows of nearby establishments, including ATMs and employment agencies. Police responded with tear gas and batons. They also arrested three individuals. 

Assessments & Forecasts – The development reiterates the elevated threat of violence during anti-far-right protests, especially in Brittany. This is supported by similar violent protests being reported during an anti-far-right protest in Rennes, Brittany in June 2024. Given reports indicate that far-right parties, such as Rassemblement National (RN), have sought to increase their support in Brittany, similar anti-far-right protests are likely to recur in the region. Such protests will carry an elevated risk of vandal attacks targeting public property and businesses, evidenced by the damage caused to employment agencies and ATMs in the latest case. Further, such protests pose a credible risk to bystanders, given the use of stones and incendiary devices by protesters. 

Current Situation – Unidentified individuals fired shots at a private medical company’s office on Kleijnstraat, Rotterdam at 01:40 (local hours) on March 2. One person was inside the premises during the incident but was not harmed. This follows an attempted arson attack at the same building at 04:50 on March 1. 

Assessments & Forecast – That both incidents took place overnight when business offices are usually closed indicates that the attacks are aimed at intimidation. This falls in line with the tactics used by criminal groups in extortion, with reports indicating that nearly ten percent of all businesses in Netherlands face extortion. While such incidents are usually not aimed at causing physical injuries, that the shooting took place while an individual was inside indicates that it posed a credible threat to the employee. Alternatively, it is also possible that the attacks are related to a personal dispute. Regardless, the escalation from arson to a shooting suggests an increase in the willingness of the attackers to engage in violence, with the threat of further such violence in the area thereby remaining high. 

Current Situation – On March 2, four security guards were injured in a shooting in a shopping center in the city of Mytishchi, Moscow region. The assailant had engaged in an altercation with security staff at the mall earlier in the day after he was denied entry to the building. Following this, he sprayed a “gas canister” containing an unidentified substance at the staff. He later returned to carry out the shooting. According to media reports, the shooter was a lieutenant with the Federal Protective Service (FSO). Police have not confirmed this claim.  

Assessments & Forecast – Based on available information, the assailant was likely driven by emotional distress and personal resentment against the security guards following his altercation with the staff. Video evidence of the assailant seemingly only targeting the staff, rather than shoppers at random, adds credence to this. As such, an extremist motive is unlikely. Regardless, that the shooting took place inside a crowded shopping center indicates that he posed a high security risk to the public. As such, the incident is liable to raise public demands for increased security at high-footfall locations, including shopping centers. 

Current Situation – On March 1, the Russian Defense Ministry claimed its air defense systems intercepted three unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) targeting a compressor station in the Krasnodar Region, which services the TurkStream gas pipeline. The ministry attributed the incident to an attempted Ukrainian sabotage operation. Meanwhile, on March 3, authorities reported a fire at the Ufa Oil Refinery in the Bashkortostan region. Local residents claimed that two explosions were heard near the refinery, along with the sound of a UAV. 

Assessments & Forecast – The developments reiterate Kyiv’s efforts to target Moscow’s energy infrastructure, with the likely intention of diminishing Russian revenue from energy exports. This is further supported by the January 13 claims made by Russia’s Defense Ministry that Ukraine had previously attempted to attack the same compressor station with nine UAVs. As such, similar Ukrainian attacks targeting oil refineries and gas pipelines within mainland Russia are expected to continue, especially given the stalled negotiations on a potential ceasefire. Meanwhile, Moscow is expected to retaliate with airstrikes targeting Ukraine’s energy grid, including in the northern and western regions of Ukraine, prompting associated power outages. 

Current Situation – On March 3, Sweden’s security service, Sakerhetspolisen (Sapo), confirmed it was investigating an attempted sabotage incident on Gotland, an island in the Baltic Sea. The incident was discovered during the evening (local time) of March 2, with police reporting that the power supply to the island’s water pump system was tampered with. Authorities said that had the incident gone undetected, it could have left the island without water. 

Assessments & Forecast – While investigations are ongoing, that the power supply was tampered with strongly suggests this was deliberate. If confirmed, the involvement of Russia is highly likely, given multiple incidents of suspected Russian sabotage on critical infrastructure since 2022. As such, while unsuccessful, an attack on critical on-ground infrastructure, such as the water supply, underscores the broader threat to both onshore and offshore assets. Further, the incident, which follows suspected sabotage of an underwater cable off the coast of Gotland in late February, will raise concerns over increased targeting of the island. This is especially so given Gotland’s strategic importance in the Baltic Sea, with NATO exercises taking place in June 2024 and May 2023.