Current Situation – Protests denouncing the alleged killing of Alawite civilians and other minority groups during clashes between security forces and alleged al-Assad loyalists in Syria are slated to take place in Europe on 11-13. In Brussels, Belgium, a protest is slated to take place at Place du Luxembourg at 18:00 (local time) on March 13. In Berlin, Germany, a protest is slated to take place at Brandenburg Gate at 18:00 on March 11. In London, UK, a protest march will take place at 10 Downing Street at 14:00 on March 12.  

Assessments & Forecast – Based on recent protests held over the issue, the protests are likely to attract a turnout in the low to mid hundreds each. Considering heightened sentiments surrounding the protest issue, any planned or spontaneous demonstrations carry a latent potential for unrest in the form of localized clashes between protesters and police. Given this, a reinforced security presence is expected near protest locations. In the case of escalating unrest, police are liable to use forcible dispersal methods, including conducting mass arrests. Disruptions to traffic should be anticipated near the protest locations.  

Recommendations – Those operating or residing in Europe on March 11-13 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance near protests related Syria due to the latent potential for unrest. Allot for travel-related disruptions in the vicinity of the protest locations. 

Current Situation – The Labor Center of Lavrio and Eastern Attica has called for union members and workers in Eastern Attica to participate in a protest outside the Court of Appeal Building on Loukareos Street in Athens at 09:00 (local time) on March 12. The protest is held to commemorate the victims of the July 2018 Mati fire, which left 104 people dead, and denounce alleged government policies that led to the tragedy. The organizers have related the Mati fire to the 2023 Tempi collision.  

Assessments & Forecast – Given precedent, coupled with the protest group alleging government policies as the cause for the 2018 and 2023 incidents, the protest is likely to attract a turnout ranging from the low thousands. Considering heightened anti-government sentiments, especially over the Tempi train collision, the protest carries an elevated risk of unrest. Incidents of unrest are likely to manifest as clashes between protesters and the police. Given this, a bolstered security presence is expected to be deployed near the protest location as a precautionary measure. Disruptions to vehicular and pedestrian movement are anticipated near the Court of Appeal during the morning hours. 

Recommendations – Those operating or residing in Athens on March 12 are advised to avoid nonessential travel near the Court of Appeal due to the risk of sudden violent escalation. Allot for associated travel disruptions near the protest in the morning hours. 

Current Situation – On March 12, activists associated with Obywatele RP, Ogolnopolski Strajk Kobiet, and Akcja Demokracja will stage a protest in front of the Sejm from 10:30 (local time). The protest has been organized against a bill that would allow authorities to arbitrarily deny the right to apply for international protection in Poland. 

Assessments & Forecast – Based on the mobilizational capabilities of the groups and social media estimates, the protest is expected to attract a turnout ranging from the high dozens to the low hundreds. Although previous protests have transpired largely peacefully, given heightened sentiments over the protest issue, the slated demonstration carries a latent potential for localized clashes between protesters and the police. As such, a bolstered security presence is expected to be deployed near the Sejm as a precautionary measure. In case of escalating unrest, authorities are liable to use forcible crowd dispersal measures, including conducting arrests. Localized disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular movement are anticipated near the Sejm from the morning hours onwards. 

Recommendations – Those operating or residing in Warsaw on March 12 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance in the vicinity of Sejm due to the latent potential for unrest at the slated protest. Allot for travel-related disruptions during the morning hours. 

Current Situation – On March 12, medical workers associated with Confederation Estatal de Sindicatos Medicos (CESM) and Sindicato Medico Andaluz (SMA) will stage nationwide protests from 11:00 (local time). CESM and SMA have not announced the exact protest locations as of writing, however, they stated that the protests will take place in front of health centers and government offices across the country. The protests have been organized to demand modification to the legislative draft of the Framework Statute law introduced by the Ministry of Health that allows doctors to negotiate their working conditions. 

Assessments & Forecast – The nationwide protests organized by CESM and SMA are expected to garner turnouts between mid-dozens to low hundreds each. with the gatherings in Barcelona, Madrid, and major urban centers likely attracting larger turnouts. Given precedent, these demonstrations are likely to transpire largely peacefully. Regardless, a bolstered police presence is expected to be deployed in the vicinity of the health centers and relevant government offices to monitor the proceedings. Disruptions to traffic can be anticipated in the vicinity of the slated protests from the late morning hours onwards. 

Recommendations – Those operating or residing in Spain on March 12 are advised to allot for disruptions in the vicinity of the health centers and government offices due to nationwide protests by medical workers from the morning hours onwards. 

Current Situation – Activists associated with a Christian activist group called “Disciples of Christ” are slated to hold a protest outside the BBC’s headquarters, Broadcasting House at Portland Place in London, at 18:00 (local time) on March 12. The protest is called to denounce the BBC’s alleged refusal to speak about the persecution of Christians worldwide, including Syria and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). 

Assessments & Forecast – Based on social media estimates, coupled with precedent, the protest is likely to attract a turnout in the high dozens to low hundreds. Given past protests held by the group, the demonstration is likely to transpire peacefully. Regardless, a bolstered police presence is expected to be deployed near Portland Place to monitor proceedings. Disruptions to pedestrian movement should also be anticipated in the vicinity of Portland Place during the evening hours. 

Recommendations – Those operating or residing in London on March 12 are advised to allot for disruptions to travel near Portland Place due to the slated protest during the evening hours. 

Current Situation – As per March 8 reports, a 21-year-old Syrian national was arrested in Limassol for promoting terrorism on social media platforms. His posts included death threats alongside images of firearms, bladed weapons, and Islamic State (IS) flags. Investigators also identified the involvement of the suspect’s brother, who left Cyprus two months ago, and another associate based in Syria.  

Assessments & Forecast – The above, against the backdrop of the arrest of eight Syrian nationals in Limassol and Paphos on suspicion of financing IS-linked terror groups in October 2024, underscores the elevated Islamist threat in Cyprus. Although Cyprus has not recorded major terrorist attacks in recent years, the overall increase in online Islamist radicalization and its geographical proximity to countries with high Islamist activity, such as Lebanon, Turkey, and Syria, increases its vulnerability to Islamist activities. Given Cyprus’s status as a popular destination for Israeli travelers, Jewish and Israeli establishments, including hotels favored by Israeli visitors, are particularly at risk of such attacks. The fact that Cypriot authorities have foiled multiple attack plots targeting Israeli and Jewish entities in 2023-24 further supports the assessment. 

Current Situation – On March 8, in Berlin, Germany, three Jewish Forum journalists were attacked by pro-Palestinian activists involved in feminist protests at a cafe near Kottbusser Tor. One was called a “Zionist” and an “enemy of Islam” before being struck, while the other was assaulted while filming a speech. In France, the Jewish feminist group Nous Vivrons faced threats and intimidation, forcing members to avoid several International Women’s marches nationwide after feminist organizations opposed their participation, labeling them “Zionists.” 

Assessments & Forecast – These incidents highlight how pro-Palestinian groups, particularly radical left-wing ones, use major protest days, such as March 8 and Labor Day, to forward their agenda. This was exemplified by the March 7 “Radical Feminist Night March,” organized by Samidoun and Urgence Palestine, both linked to the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (FPLP) – a designated terrorist organization. Moreover, the labeling of Jewish individuals as “Zionists” further reflects the anti-Semitic nature of their agenda. Furthermore, the incidents in Berlin underscore the threat to journalists covering these protests. This is evidenced by 100 attacks against journalists during anti-Israel demonstrations in Germany alone in 2024. 

Current Situation – On March 8, a group of six to seven young individuals attacked a refugee shelter in Stahnsdorf, Brandenburg, at around 00:45 (local time). The shelter’s security guard was injured and was hospitalized. Witnesses reported that the attackers had previously marched through the streets chanting neo-Nazi slogans, including “Heil Hitler.” They attempted to break in through a fire door and smashed windows. Police arrested three suspects nearby and found a knife on one of them. 

Assessments & Forecast – This attack, coupled with the February 13 foiled explosive attack on an asylum shelter in Senftenberg, highlights the heightened threat of far-right violence against refugee shelters in Germany. So far in 2024, 218 such attacks have been recorded, up from 179 in 2023 and 120 in 2022. This also reflects a broader rise in far-right crimes in Germany, with preliminary 2024 data showing 41,406 right-wing extremist offenses, including 1,443 violent crimes. This is a sharp increase from 25,660 offenses, including 1,148 violent crimes, in 2023 and 20,967 offenses, with 1,016 violent crimes, in 2022. Consequently, given Germany’s polarized political climate, similar attacks are likely to continue. 

Current Situation – According to Russia’s Defense Ministry, air defenses shot down 337 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) over 10 regions, including Moscow, on March 11. Moscow Mayor, Sergei Sobyanin, stated that 70 UAVs targeted the city while 126 UAVs were intercepted over the Kursk region. In Moscow, three people have been reported dead and 18 others injured while residential buildings recorded damage. Flight operations were suspended at multiple airports, including in Moscow. 

Assessments & Forecast – The scale of the attack is reflective of Kyiv’s growing willingness to target prominent Russian cities, particularly Moscow, amid lopsided peace negotiations that appear unfavorable for Ukraine. That several airports were shut is reflective of associated threats posed to aviation. Meanwhile, considering the timing of the attack, given that Ukrainian officials will meet US officials in Saudi Arabia on March 11, Russia is liable to leverage the attack to portray Ukraine as opposing peace negotiations and increasingly justify its demands regarding security guarantees. Additionally, Russia is likely to launch retaliatory UAV and missile attacks targeting critical Ukrainian infrastructure in the near term. 

Current Situation– On March 10, Moscow announced the expulsion of two British diplomats from the UK Embassy in Moscow over alleged espionage activities. According to Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB), the diplomats provided false personal information while seeking entry into Russia and were allegedly involved in intelligence-gathering and subversive activities that threatened national security. However, media reports indicate that the Kremlin did not provide any evidence for its accusations. Meanwhile, the UK has dismissed the allegations. 

Assessments & Forecast– The recent expulsion is likely a politically motivated tit-for-tat response from Moscow following the UK government’s decision on February 6 to revoke the accreditation of a Russian diplomat, similarly in retaliation for Russia’s expulsion of a British official in November 2024. Given this, it is likely that London will also respond with similar measures, including the expulsion of Russian officials from the UK, as well as increasing sanctions on Moscow, especially as the UK increases aid to Ukraine in response to the USA’s decrease in support for Kyiv. With that, consular services between the two countries will continue to be severely affected in the medium term. 

Current Situation – On March 9, in Terrasa, Catalonia, unknown assailants in a car fatally shot a man outside a nightclub during the early morning hours (local time). A second shooting occurred hours later outside a barbershop in Terrassa, with one person seriously injured. Mossos d’Esquadra, Catalonia’s police force, is investigating links between the shootings. Separately, in L’Hospitalet de Llobregat, Barcelona metropolitan area, an individual’s hand was severed with a machete during a brawl in a bar.  

Assessments & Forecast – The incidents underscore the growing threat of violent crime in Catalonia, with an 18 percent rise in attempted homicides and a 27 percent rise in kidnappings from January to December 2024. The increase in violent crime is likely linked to organized criminal groups operating in Catalonia, which remains a transit and destination hub for drug trafficking. Indeed, the Terrassa shootings specifically are likely linked to criminal groups, given the modus operandi in the attacks. This is also supported by authorities linking shootings in Terrassa and Badalona in late February to organized crime. Given this, public calls for stronger security measures will increase, including police patrols in nightlife districts. 

Current Situation – On March 10, the US-flagged tanker Stena Immaculate, was hit at anchor by the Portuguese-flagged cargo ship Solong, in the North Sea, off the coast of East Yorkshire and Lincolnshire, UK. The tanker was reportedly carrying 35 million liters of jet fuel, some of which spilled into the sea. The cargo ship was carrying 15 containers of the toxic chemical sodium cyanide. Both vessels remain aflame since the collision, with firefighting and emergency operations ongoing on March 11.  

Assessments & Forecast – That the Solong hit the Stena Immaculate, which was anchored, raises concerns over technical failures in maritime monitoring. As of writing, foul play cannot be ruled out, especially given multiple instances of sabotage in the North and Baltic Seas. With fires reportedly ongoing, there remains a high risk of chemicals and fuel further spilling into the North Sea. As such, the potential for severe associated environmental impact is high, with environmental organizations already voicing concern over the same. While officials are likely to attempt to expedite cleanup operations to avoid further spillage, supply chain disruptions are expected as shipping and fishing operations are impacted.