Current Situation – Multiple climate groups will stage protests as part of the Global Climate Strike in cities regionwide, including Brussels, Belgium; Helsinki, Finland; Berlin and Frankfurt, Germany; Oslo, Norway; and Madrid, Spain on April 11. Further details can be found here.  

Assessments & Forecast – Based on precedent, coupled with the mobilization capabilities of the organizing groups, protests are likely to witness turnouts ranging from the low hundreds to the high hundreds. Berlin and Frankfurt are likely to garner the largest turnouts. Protests are also expected to take place in other major cities across Europe on April 11. Given precedent, coupled with the potential involvement of groups like XR and Letzte Generation (LG), the protests carry a latent potential for unrest in the form of localized clashes between protesters and police officials, especially in the event that protesters engage in disruptive tactics. As such, a bolstered security presence is expected near the slated protest locations to monitor proceedings. In the case of escalating unrest, police are liable to use forcible dispersal methods, including conducting mass arrests. Disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular movement are anticipated.  

Recommendations— Those operating or residing in the abovementioned cities in Europe on April 11 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance due to the latent potential for unrest due to slated protests. Allot for travel-related disruptions in the vicinity of the protest locations during the slated timings.   

Current Situation – The Societe Nationale des Chemins de fer Français (SNCF) has announced that a local strike will significantly disrupt Transport Express Regional (TER) services in the Nouvelle-Aquitaine region on April 11, with details available here. Additionally, a local railway strike has been announced by SNCF for April 11, affecting TER traffic in the Hauts-de-France region, particularly on the Nord–Pas-de-Calais lines and the Paris–Saint-Quentin route. Some service disruptions are also anticipated in the morning hours (local time) of April 12. Details are available here 

Assessments & Forecast – With the strike anticipated to be widely adhered to, significant disruptions to railway services, including delays and cancelations, are anticipated in Hauts-de-France and Nouvelle-Aquitaine regions. The potential for residual disruptions to persist beyond April 11-12 due to associated backlogs also remains. With that, overcrowding is expected on other available public transport services, including buses. The use of private vehicles and taxis is also expected to increase. The striking workers are also liable to hold small-scale protests and pickets outside prominent railway stations and government buildings in major cities, including Bordeaux. Any such protests are expected to transpire peacefully.

Recommendations – Those operating or residing in in Hauts-de-France and Nouvelle-Aquitaine regions on April 11 are advised to reconfirm itineraries and allot for disruptions to railway services due to the scheduled strike.

Current Situation – Reports indicate that activists associated with climate group Fridays for Future (FFF) are slated to hold protests in Hanover, Munich, and Stuttgart on April 11. Details of which are given here.

Assessments & Forecast – Based on precedent, coupled with the mobilization capabilities of the group, the slated protests are likely to draw turnouts ranging in the high dozens to mid-hundreds each, with the protest in Munich likely to attract the largest participation. Protests are also expected to take place in other major cities across Germany on April 11. Given precedent, the protests carry a latent potential for unrest in the form of localized clashes between protesters and police officials, especially in the event that protesters engage in disruptive tactics such as sit-ins, or blocking roads. As such, a bolstered security presence is expected near the slated protest locations to monitor proceedings. In the case of escalating unrest, police are liable to use forcible dispersal methods, including conducting mass arrests. Disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular movement are anticipated near the protest locations during the slated timings.

Recommendations – Those operating or residing in the abovementioned cities in Germany on April 11 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance due to the latent potential for unrest due to slated protests. Allot for travel-related disruptions near the protest locations during the slated timings.

Current Situation – Activists associated with the civil society group Azadi Berlin will hold a protest at Pariser Platz in Berlin at 18:00 (local time) on April 11. The gathering is being held to commemorate Jamshid Sharmahd, a US-German activist who was held hostage for over four years and allegedly executed by the Iranian government. Furthermore, protesters will denounce the perceived inaction of the German government in Sharmahd’s case. 

Assessments & Forecast – Based on precedent, the protest is likely to gather turnouts ranging in the high dozens to low hundreds. Given the precedent and the nature of the protest issue, the protest is expected to transpire largely peacefully and without instances of major unrest. Regardless, a bolstered police presence can be expected in the vicinity of the Pariser Platz to monitor proceedings. Disruptions to pedestrian and vehicle movement can be anticipated near Pariser Platz during the evening hours. 

Recommendations – Those operating or residing in Berlin on April 11 are advised to allot for disruptions to travel in the vicinity of Pariser Platz due to the slated protest during evening hours. 

Current Situation – Students associated with the “Rebel University” will hold a protest at Trg Republike in Belgrade from 19:00 (local time) on April 10. The demonstration is being held to denounce the government’s decision to expel foreign citizens supporting the ongoing student protests for social issues, including the November 2024 Novi Sad railway station roof collapse. 

Assessments & Forecast – Based on precedent the protest is likely to witness a turnout ranging in the mid to high hundreds. Given prevailing anti-government sentiments, the protest carries a heightened potential for unrest in the form of clashes between protesters and police officials. The potential for violent incidents is expected to remain elevated should pro-government supporters seek to infiltrate the protest. Additionally, anti-government protests carry a high risk of attacks by pro-government actors or disgruntled commuters, including in the form of vehicle ramming. A bolstered security presence can be expected in the vicinity of Trg Republike to monitor proceedings. Should unrest escalate, officials are likely to deploy forcible crowd dispersal measures. Significant disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular movement should be anticipated near the slated protest location during the evening hours. 

Recommendations – Those operating or residing in Belgrade on April 10 are advised to avoid nonessential travel in the vicinity of Trg Republike due to the elevated potential for unrest at the slated anti-government protest. 

Current Situation – An individual claimed to have been kidnapped by two armed individuals in Miramas, near Marseille around 01:00 (local time) of April 7. The assailants blocked the victim’s vehicle with their car and locked him in their car’s trunk. Later, they let him go after setting his vehicle on fire and beating him up. Identifying themselves as members of the Marseille-based organized gang “DZ Mafia,” the perpetrators claimed that Miramas was “theirs” and instructed the victim to relay the message to his “hierarchy”.  

Assessments & Forecast – The incident highlights the threat of violence from DZ Mafia, in and around Marseille, mainly targeting rival gang members, as purported above. This is evidenced by a similar assault of an individual in Marseille on March 4. The perpetrators’ message suggests that the incident is likely linked to DZ Mafia’s ongoing efforts to expand their area of operation in the Provence-Alpes-Cote d’Azur region. This is supported by February 13 reports indicating the expansion of DZ Mafia’s operations into Nice. This expansion is likely to increase the risk of clashes between DZ Mafia and already established groups in the region. 

Current Situation – On April 7, unknown assailants fatally shot a 19-year-old outside a primary school in Vaulx-en-Velin, in the eastern suburbs of Lyon, during the afternoon hours (local time) while classes were ongoing. Authorities have confirmed that the incident is linked to an ongoing “gang war” related to drug trafficking in the Mas de Taureau neighborhood. Residents of Vaulx-en-Velin have described a well-established drug trafficking ring run by teenagers in the neighborhood.  

Assessments & Forecast – The incident reiterates the heightened risk of gang-related violent crimes and the increasing involvement of youth in such activities. The fact that between January and March of 2025, clashes between rival gangs increased by 8 percent across France compared to the same period last year, with 80 percent of such cases having been provoked by minors, further supports the assessment. Furthermore, that the shooting took place outside a primary school during operational hours reflects the heightened risk of spillover violence affecting bystanders during gang-related confrontations. In Lyon, neighborhoods such as Vaulx-en-Velin, Venissieux, Bron, La Duchere, Rillieux-la-Pape, and Saint-Fons remain especially vulnerable to drug trafficking, youth gang activity, and recurring violence. 

Current Situation – On April 7, a Syrian national stabbed a German national outside a supermarket on Ernst-Schneller-Strasse in Heidenau, Saxony, at approximately 18:50 (local time). According to local media, the stabbing followed an argument between the suspect and another Syrian individual. Police arrested the perpetrator at the scene. In response, the far-right extremist micro-party Freie Sachsen organized a protest on April 8, drawing around 300 participants. A left-wing counterdemonstration was held separately in Heidenau. 

Assessment & Forecast – The incident underscores continued efforts by far-right groups to exploit violent crimes involving individuals of Middle Eastern or North African origin to advance their political agenda. This pattern mirrors reactions observed after the Magdeburg Christmas Market attack in December 2024, which also triggered far-right mobilization. Given this, it is highly likely that future violent crimes involving migrants or foreign nationals will be used by far-right actors to incite anti-immigrant sentiment and stage further demonstrations. Such events carry a heightened risk of unrest, particularly in the presence of left-wing counterdemonstrations. States like Saxony, where the far-right have strong support, are especially susceptible to far-right protests and subsequent confrontations with left-wing counterdemonstrators.  

Current Situation – The railway lines between Nuremberg in Bavaria and Erfurt in Thuringia were closed due to a suspected arson attack from 15:00-18:00 (local time) on April 9. As per Deutsche Bahn, the national rail company, the attack targeted the control and safety system, causing all signals to turn red. Thousands of passengers were affected due to the train delays, reroutes, and cancellations. Several long-distance trains were delayed by 90 minutes. Several Intercity Express (ICE) routes, including Munich-Berlin, Munich-Hamburg, and Vienna-Berlin-Hamburg, were canceled. Train cancellations were also reported at Munich Central Station. 

Assessments & Forecast – The incident highlights the persistent threat of arson attacks targeting the country’s railway infrastructure. Based on similar incidents in the past, including in September 2023 when far-left activists claimed responsibility for sabotaging railway power lines near Hamburg, the likelihood of involvement of far-left activists in the above incident remains. Far-left activists frequently target such infrastructure due to the high potential of creating disruptions and thereby attracting high media attention to their cause. Similar attacks are liable to recur, primarily manifesting as arson, explosive attacks, vandalism, or severing of cables. 

Current Situation- According to April 9 reports, a 17-year-old carried out a knife attack at a traffic police station in Achkhoy-Martan, Chechnya. The suspect was killed after the police fired at him. Additionally, one officer was killed and another was injured. Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov claimed that the assailant was a Ukrainian citizen and acted under the direction of a group of Ukrainian and Turkish nationals. However, no evidence was provided to support this allegation. 

Assessments & Forecast – Despite Kadyrov’s statements, the potential for the assailant to be motivated by Islamist ideologies is high, with multiple such incidents of Islamist extremists carrying out attacks on police recorded in the North Caucasus before. This includes the June 2024 Islamist attack on a traffic police post in Dagestan. Kadyrov’s claims are likely attempts to divert public attention away from regional security issues and fuel further anti-Ukrainian sentiments. Kadyrov had similarly attributed a series of Islamist stabbing attacks in Chechnya in 2019 to western “enemies”. The threat of further attacks on police stations, amongst other civilian targets, will remain high in Russia, especially in the Muslim-majority region of North Caucasus. 

Current Situation – On April 8, Federal Security Service (FSB) Director Alexander Bortnikov reported that 47 terrorist plots, mostly involving teenagers influenced by extremist ideologies, have been thwarted since the beginning of 2025. He also reported that over 2,500 youths detained since 2022 for ties to Ukrainian neo-Nazis and multiple terrorist organizations. 

Assessments & Forecast –  This data, coupled with security services foiling around 190 plots in 2024, reiterates the continued heightened threat of militancy in Russia. Indeed, the heightened threat stems from the entrenched presence of domestic jihadist cells in the Muslim-majority North Caucasus region as well as the activities of Ukrainian-backed partisan groups. Given precedent, the jihadist attacks remain more lethal, with domestic cells often providing logistical support, including weapons and training, to transnational jihadist groups, as evidenced by the March 2024 attack on Crocus City Hall in Moscow, killing around 145. Whereas, while Ukrainian-backed and right-wing plots are generally aimed at sabotage, authorities’ greater emphasis on threats stemming from these elements reflects the government’s sustained efforts to shape public perception and reinforce its narrative to justify its continued aggression against Kyiv. 

Current Situation – On April 8, the Russian Defense Ministry claimed that its forces had taken control of the village of Guyevo, located near the border of the Ukrainian Sumy region, and south of Sudzha in the Russian Kursk region. According to the ministry, it was the last village in Kursk still held by Ukrainian forces.

Assessments & Forecast – The Russian Defense Ministry’s claims that its forces have taken control of the village of Guyevo reflect Russia’s continued, albeit marginal, advances near the Sumy-Kursk border area. With the Ukrainian salient in Kursk having mostly collapsed, Russian forces may attempt an offensive toward Sumy city, as Russian advances in Sumy would allow the Kremlin to gain additional leverage in ceasefire negotiations and potentially demand that Kyiv cede part of Sumy to Russia under any settlement. However, such an offensive would require Moscow to supplement its troops in Kursk with significant reinforcements to engage in combat. Alternatively, Russia may seek to create a “buffer zone” along this border, with Putin reportedly previously asking military officials to consider “creating a security zone” in the area. 

Current Situation – On April 9, a driver rammed his vehicle into a protester during a demonstration supporting students at the corner of Ruzveltova Street and Kraljice Marije Street in Belgrade, during the evening hours (local time). The victim sustained minor injuries. According to witness reports, the driver made a U-turn before crashing into the protesters. 

Assessments & Forecast – Based on witness reports and videos of the incident, which show the car being blocked by protesters before speeding through the crowd abruptly, the incident was intentional, likely carried out by a disgruntled commuter. This underscores the ongoing risks faced by protesters in Serbia, with over 70 attacks on protesters, both by disgruntled commuters and pro-government actors, recorded since the student-led protests over the Novi Sad roof collapse began in November 2024. This is in part due to the major road blockades implemented by protesters, which disrupt daily commuting and often escalate tensions between protesters and commuters. Moving forward, violence targeting protesters, including car rammings and assaults using weapons, will persist, risking injuries or fatalities among the protesters and individuals in the vicinity of the protests.