Current Situation: The transportation unions Federacion de Transporte Urbano Chuquiago Marka de La Paz and Transporte Libre have announced a 24-hour strike accompanied by road blockades in La Paz city from 05:00 (local time) on October 23. Road blockades are planned in 50 points across La Paz, including on roads connecting El Alto municipality to La Paz municipality. The protest actions and associated blockades are being held to demand a guarantee of fuel supply for transport workers.  

Assessments & Forecast: Given the unions’ strict adherence to previous labor actions and the confirmed participation of Transporte Libre’s 17 urban transport affiliates, the upcoming strike is likely to be widely observed. Moreover, roadblocks are expected to see turnouts in the low to mid hundreds at each location. Considering the heightened sentiments over the issue, all blockades and potential demonstrations carry the latent potential to escalate into localized clashes between protesters and security forces. The blockades are likely to cause significant travel disruptions throughout the city and on major thoroughfares connecting La Paz and El Alto. All public transport services are also expected to face major disruptions. 

Recommendations: Those operating or residing in La Paz on October 23 are advised to avoid nonessential to the vicinity of protest locations due to the likelihood of travel disruptions and maintain heightened vigilance in the vicinity of road blockades due to the potential for unrest. 

Current Situation: Unionized Education workers, including the Confederacao Nacional dos Trabalhadores em Educacao (CNTE), Central Unica dos Trabalhadores (CUT), and Sindicato das Professoras e Funcionarias de Escola do RS (CPERS), have called for a protest outside the Anexo Dos da Camara dos Deputados in Brasilia at 14:30 (local time) on October 24. The protest has been announced to denounce pension reforms and extended deadlines for refinancing municipalities’ social security debts proposed in Amendment No. 66/2023 (PEC 66), approved by the Senate on August 21.

Assessments & Forecast: Based on elevated sentiments regarding PEC 66 and mobilization capabilities of the participating unions, the upcoming demonstration is likely to draw a turnout in the low thousands. Despite the sentiments, the demonstration is likely to transpire peacefully, based on previous protests held by the organizing unions on separate issues. Regardless, given that the protest is planned outside a key government building, a higher-than-normal security deployment can be expected near Camara dos Deputados to monitor proceedings and divert traffic. Localized disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular traffic can be expected near Camara dos Deputados during the afternoon hours.

Recommendations: Those operating or residing in Brasilia on October 24 are advised to allot for travel disruptions due to slated protest near Anexo Dos da Camara dos Deputados during the afternoon hours.

Current Situation: Power cuts announced by the Corporacion Nacional de Electricidad (CNEL EP) for the cities of Daule, Duran, Guayaquil, Quito, and Samborondon and the provinces of Azuay, Bolivar, Canar, Chimborazo, Cotopaxi, El Oro, Esmeraldas, Imbabura, Los Rios, Loja, Manabi, Morona-Santiago, Napo, Pastaza, Pichincha, Santo Domingo, Sucumbios, Tungurahua, between October 21-27, are currently ongoing. In Quito, power cuts are slated in four-hour time slots from 00:01 (local time) to 04:00, 04:00 to 08:00, 08:00 to 12:00, 12:00 to 16:00, 16:00 to 20:00, and 20:00 to 24:00 until October 26. On October 27, power cuts will be two hours long in the early morning and morning hours, and four hours long in the evening and night hours. Additional information regarding affected areas in Quito can be accessed here. Details regarding the timings and locations of power outages in Guayaquil can be found here, while details for Daule, Duran and Samborondon can be found here. While power cuts lasted for approximately 10 hours between October 3-20, President Daniel Noboa announced that the duration of power cuts will be reduced by two hours every seven days.

Recommendations: Those operating or residing in the aforementioned province and cities in Ecuador from October 23-27 are advised to allot for service disruptions due to the slated power outages.

Current Situation: The Ejercito Zapatista de Liberacion Nacional (EZLN) indigenous militant group (also known as Zapatistas) and other civil society groups, like the indigenous rights group Congreso Nacional Indigena (CNI), have called for a protest march from Antimonumento +43 to the Zocalo in Mexico City from 16:00 (local time) on October 24. The protest aims to denounce attacks on Zapatista families by armed militants—whose affiliations were not specified— in the village of 6 de Octubre, Ocosingo municipality, Chiapas.

Assessments & Forecast: Based on a previous protest march from Angel de la Independencia to Zocalo by Zapatistas on June 8, 2023, which denounced attacks by paramilitary groups and armed forces on Zapatista communities, the upcoming march is likely to witness a turnout in the high hundreds to low thousands. The precedent further indicates the march is also likely to transpire peacefully, without any major instances of unrest. Nevertheless, bolstered security can be expected along the march route and near Zocalo to monitor proceedings and divert traffic. Disruptions to vehicular and pedestrian traffic can also be anticipated along the slated march route.

Recommendations: Those operating or residing in Mexico City on October 24 are advised to allot for disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular travel along the slated march route and near the protest locations from 16:00 onwards.

Current Situation: According to the Servicio Meteorologico Nacional (SMN), Hurricane Kristy, a Category 1 Hurricane on the five-tier Saffir-Simpson scale, is currently situated 755 kilometers southwest of Playa Perula, Jalisco, and 780 kilometers southwest of Manzanillo, Colima. Kristy is currently moving westward from the west Mexican coast with maximum sustained winds of up to 130 kmph (80 mph) and is forecast to bring very heavy rains between 50 to 75 millimeters in Nayarit and Jalisco on October 23. Moreover, heavy rains between 25 to 50 millimeters are forecast for Colima and Michoacan.

Recommendations: Those residing or operating in the aforementioned states in Mexico are advised to remain cognizant of authorities’ updates regarding weather-related risks.

Current Situation: Presidential spokesman Manuel Adorni announced on October 21 that the tax office Agencia Federal de Ingresos Publicos (AFIP) will be replaced by the Agencia de Recaudacion y Control Aduanero (ARCA). Adorni said that ARCA will have a “simplified” structure, which will mean public annual savings of ARS 6.4 billion (6,509,088 USD). Approximately 3,100 AFIP employees who joined during former President Alberto Fernandez’s tenure (2019-2023) will be relocated in the government structure.

Assessments & Forecast: The development is in line with the President Javier Milei-led government’s effort to downsize the state’s structure and drastically reduce the fiscal deficit, also evidenced by the 2025 budget bill which seeks to allocate expenditures based on public revenues. The reduction of approximately 34 percent of AFIP staff is likely to provoke a significant backlash from public workers’ unions, potentially leading to protests and work stoppages nationwide in the coming days. This is further underlined by the fact that, despite Adorni’s promise to maintain the aforementioned AFIP positions, the uncertainty about potential lay-offs and timeline of retentions will persist.

Current Situation: Police arrested a suspect who allegedly shot Jose Aprigio da Silva, a mayoral candidate for re-election in Taboao da Serra, Sao Paulo (SP) on October 18 during a campaign visit in Vila Santa Luzia. Additionally, Farid Madi, a candidate in Guaruja, reportedly wore a bulletproof vest during an October 21 debate.

Assessments & Forecast: The incidents underscore the increased trend of attacks targeting municipal election candidates amid the October electoral period, with over 373 cases of political violence reported from August 16-October 6. The surge in violence is likely primarily driven by organized criminal groups and militias seeking control over local territories, reinforced by the changing of 53 polling stations in ten municipalities in September to prevent voter coercion. The risk is particularly higher in Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro states, which reportedly recorded 58 and 47 cases of violence, respectively, targeting political leaders or family members from July-September, the highest nationwide. With the runoffs slated for October 27, the risk of shootings targeting political candidates will remain high, with campaign events or private residences and vehicles liable to be potential targets.

Current Situation: Reports indicate that, at approximately 02:00 (local time), unidentified individuals shot at a vehicle belonging to Centro Democratico presidential candidate Jimmy Jairala at Rio Guayas, in Guayaquil. The vehicle was carrying Jairala’s son with two other people. The driver, who also serves as a bodyguard, was shot four times.  

Assessments & Forecast: This incident reiterates the significantly elevated risk of violence against presidential candidates in view of the upcoming February 9, 2025, elections, following the killing of the presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio in August 2023 before the previous elections. This is a security concern noted by the Consejo Nacional Electoral (CNE, the National Electoral Council), which had advised candidates to use only armored vehicles ahead of the elections. The modus operandi suggests that the attack was targeted, and possibly intimidatory in nature, by specifically shooting at the driver. Attacks in the form of shootings and explosive detonations against high profile candidates may occur with the overall security landscape likely to be a key aspect of the elections as seen with Jairala stating that “security” would be his priority if he were to win. 

Current Situation: Authorities arrested a suspect based in Philadelphia, PA for sending text messages on September 6 threatening to kill a political party’s representative who was recruiting volunteers to serve as poll watchers.

Assessments & Forecast: The incident aligns with the latent threat of violence against electoral workers ahead of the November 5 election, supported by a May 1 survey indicating that 38 percent of local election officials report experiencing threats or harassment. To this end, the arrest shows increased security preparedness following the precedent of election-related conspiracies and violence during the 2020 electoral cycle. With the presidential race between VP Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump closely contested, especially in swing states, and Trump continuing to be vocal about voter fraud allegations in 2020 elections, rhetoric over the same will likely elicit threats against local elections officials before November 5 or after results. This is particularly likely if Trump loses with a small margin, which can potentially increase the intensity of voter fraud allegations. Threats can manifest as lone-actor verbal or physical assaults, including shootings, against election workers at polling or ballot-counting centers.

Current Situation: On October 21, the Justice Department (DoJ) proposed new rules to restrict access to federal government and sensitive personal data by “countries of concern.”  The regulations target transactions involving six categories- personal data, geolocation data, biometric identifiers, human genomic data, health, and financial information.

Assessments & Forecast: The proposals aim to solve the persistent issue of reviewing data transactions with adversarial countries, by establishing a stricter regulatory framework. Previously, this relied on case-by-case reviews by inter-agency bodies like the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) and Committee for the Assessment of Foreign Participation in US Telecommunications Services. On that note, the rules are an attempt by Washington to streamline the mitigation of national security risks posed by perceived adversaries accessing sensitive data. This was also seen when President Joe Biden signed a law on April 24 threatening to ban a popular Chinese-owned social media platform unless it was sold off from its Chinese parent company. Similar executive branch actions to monitor, restrict, and regulate the transfer of sensitive data remain likely, especially amid heightened Washington-Beijing competition over trade and technology.