Current Situation – According to the official website, the annual Pretoria Marathon is slated to begin at 05:45 (local time) in Lynnwood, Pretoria on February 23. The marathon features four different categories, with both the start and finish taking place at the PHSOB Club in Lynnwood. The specified route and further details about the schedules for each category for the slated event can be found on the race’s official website. The authorities are expected to implement road closures in line with the same for the smooth conduct of the marathon.

Recommendations – Those operating or residing in Pretoria on February 23 are advised to allot for travel disruptions due to the planned marathon and expected road closures along the route.

Current Situation – Reports indicate that a Burkinabe firm, which is expanding from banking and insurance into the energy sector, initiated processes to acquire the assets of the prominent multinational French energy company withdrawing from Burkina Faso, including 170 service stations. The finalization of the sale of assets remains subject to regulatory procedures regarding mergers and acquisitions.

Assessments & Forecast – The French company’s withdrawal from Burkina Faso follows a similar departure from Mali, where the company sold its assets to a Beninese firm. While the reasons are unclear, this aligns with the company’s reorganization of its operations in West Africa, especially amid rising anti-French public sentiments and precarious security conditions. The military juntas in these countries are also intensifying efforts to enhance their economic sovereignty, particularly in managing national resources and renegotiating ties with Western firms. Thus, the local Burkinabe company’s acquisition of assets signals a potential push for domestic firms to gain more influence and control over the key energy industry. This transition could pose challenges related to infrastructure and expertise, given the Burkinabe firm’s relative inexperience, potentially affecting operational stability in the energy sector.

Current Situation – Reports indicate that the Imbonerakure, the ruling National Council for the Defense of Democracy-Forces for the Defense of Democracy (CNDD-FDD) party’s youth league, have been intensifying patrols in Cibitoke Province since February 14. Local security officials denied the alleged distribution of weapons. Imbonerakure fighters were also allegedly patrolling areas in Bujumbura. Separately, a large number of Rwandans were arrested in Bujumbura. The US Embassy in Bujumbura authorized the departure of non-emergency embassy staff and family members on February 21 while confirming the embassy’s continued functioning.

Assessments & Forecast – These developments come in the context of the ongoing armed conflict in DRC involving March 23 Movement (M23) rebels, allegedly backed by Rwanda, with rebels advancing toward Uvira and Mwenge territories in South Kivu Province near the Burundian border. The alleged arming and mobilization of the Imbonerakure align with Gitega’s threat perception of the conflict expanding into wider regional hostilities, especially amid Burundian troops’ participation in the conflict against the M23. The situation along the Burundi-DRC border will likely remain tense, with the authorities remaining on high alert, with the regional security landscape remaining volatile.

Current Situation – In an official communique, the UN Security Council (UNSC) condemned Rwanda for supporting the March 23 Movement (M23) and urged M23 to cease hostilities. The EU summoned Rwanda’s ambassador over the intensified offensive. Meanwhile, the Twirwaneho militia, an ally of M23, reportedly seized control of Minembwe, Fizi Territory, South Kivu Province, including an airstrip, after repelling an offensive by the army on February 21.

Assessments & Forecast – This is the first time the UN has directly accused Rwanda of participating in the M23 offensive in eastern DRC. This, along with the EU’s recalling of the Rwandan ambassador, signals some increase in international pressure on Kigali, particularly from Western actors as M23 continues to advance in both South Kivu and North Kivu. However, this is not expected to have immediate effect. Meanwhile, the Twirwaneho’s capture of Minembwe signals the possible eventuality of them linking up with the M23, as also indicated by the rebels’ recent push southward, closer to the Burundian border. This could further facilitate M23’s advances and heighten concerns for Burundi, as both Tutsi-dominated groups are opposed to the Burundian government.

Current Situation – Reports indicate that the Ivorian and French authorities held a symbolic ceremony to mark France’s return of the Port-Bouet base in Abidjan to the Ivorian troops. The authorities also unveiled the camp’s new name, Thomas d’Aquin Ouattara military camp, in honor of the first Chief of Staff of the Ivorian army and raised the Ivorian flag. Abidjan and Paris reiterated continued bilateral ties while emphasizing the presence of at least 80 French soldiers in the Ivory Coast to support the Ivorian army’s training and operational needs.

Assessments & Forecast – This is a significant development marking the handover of the final French military base in West Africa following France’s decades-long presence. This is largely symbolic and in line with the previously reached agreement, with Abidjan seeking to diversify its international partners and France aiming to scale down its African operations. The renaming of the camp is likely an attempt by the government to portray nationalism and appease the population ahead of the October general elections amid growing anti-French regional sentiments. Abidjan-Paris ties are likely to remain amicable amid continued bilateral engagement in the near term.

Current Situation – Reports indicate that Jubaland State President Ahmed Madobe accused the federal government of politicizing aid to consolidate federal authority. Madobe urged the international community to bypass Mogadishu and directly engage with Jubaland authorities for humanitarian assistance and development aid. Madobe further denounced Mogadishu’s misuse of external economic support intended for member states and reiterated the severance of ties. Separately, Kenya announced that it would initiate mediation efforts between Jubaland and the federal government.

Assessments & Forecast – Tensions between the federal government and Jubaland particularly heightened after the federal government’s adoption of a unified voting system, prompting Jubaland to sever ties with Mogadishu in November 2024 and also resulting in sporadic military clashes. Madobe’s latest allegation against Mogadishu highlights the persistent issues between the federal and state authorities, stemming from power struggle and entrenched mistrust. Jubaland likely intends to undermine the federal government and establish a direct international partnership by highlighting Mogadishu’s alleged misuse of aid. The federal authorities will likely reject such allegations. However, mutual accusations and tensions are liable to persist, with any potential mediation efforts unlikely to record any notable success immediately.

Current Situation – Reports indicate that Kenyan President William Ruto suspended the peace talks between the South Sudan government and the 2018 peace agreement’s holdout opposition groups. Ruto explained that the suspension was made at the request of the South Sudanese government delegation to allow for additional consultations. Separately, the Troika (Norway, the UK, and the US) condemned the alleged lack of commitment by the signatories of the 2018 agreement to conclude the transitional period while the government officially extended the transition to 2027.

Assessments & Forecast – The Tumaini initiative, launched in May 2024, has been suspended multiple times, including in December 2024, due to ongoing differences between the South Sudanese government and holdout opposition groups. Despite agreements in November 2024 to resolve outstanding issues, the opposition will likely denounce the continued delays as deliberate attempts by the government to stall progress and retain power. The suspension reflects deep-rooted mistrust between the parties, while the Troika’s condemnation highlights international frustration over the perceived lack of political will or urgency in fulfilling the agreement’s terms. With unresolved issues and minimal progress, the deadlock is likely to persist when the peace talks potentially resume in March.

Current Situation – The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) reportedly extended control over Al-Sidira, Gezira State and conducted airstrikes in Khan Jadeed, North Darfur State. The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) reportedly inflicted casualties when shelling El Fasher, North Darfur and El Obeid, North Kordofan on February 21. African Union-mediated peace talks in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia ended without agreements, and the Nairobi, Kenya conference postponed the signing of a political charter for a parallel government in Sudan.

Assessments & Forecast – This is a continuation of the SAF’s push to capture the palace in Khartoum after taking the nearby al-Hurriya thoroughfare in recent days, with fighting in central Khartoum to persist. The SAF’s control over the eastern and western sectors of Al-Sidira adds to their successive territorial gains in Gezira State. The RSF’s activity in North Darfur and North Kordofan are likely aimed at putting pressure on civilian areas as the SAF attempts to advance. The diplomatic impasses in Addis Ababa and Nairobi highlight the lack of trust among Sudanese factions and international backers. The political deadlock is expected to continue without any significant results in the near term.

Current Situation – Reports indicate that a magistrates’ court charged detained opposition leader Kizza Besigye with treason, rejecting his lawyer’s pleas that he be transferred to a hospital due to poor health condition amid Besigye’s hunger strike which ended on February 21. Besigye and ally Obeid Lutale Kamulegeya appeared before the High Court on February 19 after filing a habeas corpus application citing severe health deterioration. The High Court Judge announced that the ruling would be delivered by February 25.

Assessments & Forecast – The transfer of Besigye’s case to civilian courts represents a step back from the government’s previous refusal to do so. This is likely due to growing pressures amid recurring protests towards Besigye’s deteriorating health amid a hunger strike to protest his unfair arrest and military trial. The refusal to unconditionally release Besigye and the severe judicial charges against him despite his poor health will heighten frustration among his supporters over the perceived violation of his basic rights, especially given President Yoweri Museveni’s previous claims asserting that Besigye will stand trial irrespective of his health. Tensions and demonstrations over Besigye’s continued detention will likely persist.