Current Situation – Reports indicate that supporters of dismissed mayor and opposition Samm Sa Kaddu coalition member Barthelemy Dias will hold a protest march in Dakar, with participants slated to gather at the Poste Medine at 15:00 (local time) and walk to the Rond Point Sandaga by 19:00. The protest is organized to denounce Dias’s removal as Mayor of Dakar and deputy from the National Assembly, while also opposing the increased security presence around the Dakar City Hall.

Assessments & Forecast – This protest comes amid heightened tensions following Dias’s removal from the mayoral office and National Assembly over his 2023 conviction for homicide. The protests are likely organized to express grievances reflecting support for Dias. In this context, the protest is expected to attract participation in the low-to-mid hundreds. Bolstered security deployments can be expected in the vicinity of the Poste Medine and the Rond Point Sandaga, with traffic disruptions anticipated in these two locations. Security forces are also liable to erect roadblocks and use forceful means of dispersal including tear gas. This may trigger scuffles between protesters and security forces.

Recommendations – Those operating or residing in Dakar on December 27 are advised to avoid nonessential travel in the vicinity of Poste Medine and Rond-point Sandaga during the afternoon and evening hours due to the planned protest and associated risks of unrest. 

Current Situation – Reports indicate that during the army’s clashes with government-allied Wazalendo self-defense militiamen in Rukorwe, seven civilians were killed and four injured. The clashes were reportedly prompted by misunderstandings between soldiers and Wazalendo fighters. The authorities have opened investigations into the incident. The civil society organization Struggle for Change (LUCHA) called the Wazalendo an uncontrolled, indisciplined, and untrained group. 

Assessments & Forecast – This comes amid sporadically recurring army-Wazalendo clashes despite their collaboration against the March 23 Movement (M23) rebels in North Kivu. Such instances highlight that despite their alliance, differences and misunderstandings can prompt violence, often impacting civilians. It also showcases the lack of discipline among the army as well as Wazalendo members. Similar misunderstandings are often due to largely localized matters such as disagreements between local leaders and disputes over control of resources or tax revenues. While the military will likely isolate the incident to showcase continued control over the situation, the precedent suggests that similar localized disputes, and associated violence, will likely recur sporadically. However, such instances are unlikely to impact the continuity of the army and Wazalendo’s wider cooperation against M23.

Current Situation – Reports indicate that the army denounced the March 23 Movement (M23) rebels’ use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV). The army accused M23 of using civilians as “cannon fodder” and occupying churches and hospitals during ongoing clashes in Mambasa and Alimbongo, Lubero Territory. Separately, the military conducted airstrikes on M23 positions in Bitagata, Masisi Territory with clashes also reported in Mpeti, Walikale Territory.

Assessments & Forecast – This comes amid continued intensified fighting near Alimbongo in the Lubero Territory. M23’s reported use of UAVs aligns with previous such instances, with the rebels known to improvise explosive dropping devices using commercial UAVs and small ammunition. The army’s shooting down of the UAVs over Mambasa, which the army recaptured on December 21, suggests M23’s attempts at supporting their offensives on the ground with new tactics to weaken the army.  The army’s accusations over M23’s abuses against civilians are likely intended to discredit the rebels. Meanwhile, the military’s airstrikes in Bitagata highlight their continued capitalization on aerial capabilities to support their operations. M23-army clashes are expected to persist in Lubero Territory amid a continued fight for territory.

Current Situation – Reports indicate that Liyu Police, an elite paramilitary force from Somali Region, backed by Yo’ale militia, attacked Dacawalay in Harshin District, culminating in armed clashes with Isaaq community. Over 100 casualties are suspected among Liyu Police and civilians. Some Isaaq elders sent from Somaliland to mediate were detained by Liyu Police, while others fled. Somaliland condemned the attack as a massacre. Unconfirmed sources suggested that Somali regional authorities orchestrated the attack. Ethiopia closed its border with Somaliland.

Assessments & Forecast – The incident underscores deep ethnic and political tensions in Ethiopia’s Somali Region, driven by clan rivalries and resource competition, particularly between Isaaq and Ogaden clans which result in sporadic violence. The Liyu Police, loyal to Ogaden-affiliated Somali Region’s leader Cagjar, likely acted to assert control over Isaaq areas, protect Ogaden interests, and suppress any opposition to the administration. Somaliland’s condemnation highlights its concerns over the detention of elders and its vested interest in safeguarding the Isaaq community, many of whom live in Somaliland. With unresolved ethnic disputes and political manipulation, tensions are expected to persist, with similar ethnically motivated clashes likely to recur.

Current Situation – According to an official statement, the Independent Policing Oversight Authority (IPOA) launched investigations into the alleged abductions of at least four individuals by the police across Embu, Nairobi, and Kajiado counties in December. The IPOA raised concerns over these incidents and stated that police officials found guilty will be prosecuted. In a statement, the police denied involvement in the abductions. Reports indicate that the abductions were allegedly linked to Artificial Intelligence (AI) misinformation. Separately, opposition leader Raila Odinga called for an end to the abductions. 

Assessments & Forecast – Two of the alleged abductees allegedly published images generated by AI a few days earlier, showing President William Ruto in a coffin. This comes amid heightened criticism of the police over intimidation and follows a series of violent security responses against protesters in June-July, highly condemned by domestic and international actors. In light of this, IPOA’s investigation is likely intended to demonstrate government accountability and attempt to alleviate some of the public’s distrust in the authorities. However, public concerns are liable to persist as similar abductions of anti-government individuals may recur in the near term. 

Current situation – Reports indicate that the opposition Firaisankina coalition filed multiple petitions to contest the Independent National Electoral Commission’s (CENI) provisional results indicating that the “All Together With Andry Rajoelina” (IRMAR) coalition won in five major cities, including the capital Antananarivo. The opposition won in Antsiranana, Diana Region. The opposition denounced the electoral process, which was full of alleged irregularities and elections marred by fraud. 

Assessments & Forecast – This comes amid heightened post-electoral tensions following the municipal elections that were marred by delays and opposition claims of irregularities, with the opposition’s allegations aligned with its previous claims of fraud. Tensions further increased when the CENI claimed that its website was hacked after it uploaded conflicting results showing that the opposition Tiako i Madagasikara (TIM) had secured Antananarivo, and subsequently deleted them. In this context, IRMAR’s victory in Madagascar’s main cities has likely increased opposition perceptions of fraud. Considering that the final results are expected to be published shortly, disagreements surrounding the results are likely to remain high. Heightened tensions may also manifest in demonstrations by the opposition as legal proceedings continue in the coming days.

Current Situation – According to an official statement, presidential candidate Venancio Mondlane affirmed protests were against the Constitutional Council (CC), electoral bodies, and the ruling Frelimo party and protesters must stop targeting locals and businesses. Mondlane claimed that the security forces’ failure to intervene during looting proved the government’s plans to declare a state of emergency. Separately, government officials provided contradictory explanations for the escape of over 1,500 inmates in Maputo, stating that protesters were responsible and inmates launched an internal rebellion.

Assessments & Forecast – This comes amid a persisting post-electoral crisis, marked by recurring nationwide opposition demonstrations denouncing the allegedly fraudulent October 9 general elections. Tensions escalated following the CC’s December 23 validation of Frelimo’s victory, leading to heightened violent unrest. This likely led Mondlane to issue his statement, which aligns with claims he made over the government’s alleged plans to finally halt demonstrations by declaring a state of emergency. While Mondlane’s address may temporarily calm the unrest, heightened tensions and demonstrations are expected to persist, especially as the authorities attempt to shift the blame for the prison break onto the protesters may increase frustrations. 

Current situation – Reports indicate that during the overnight hours of December 22-23, gunmen attacked Gidan Ado, Riyom Local Government Area (LGA). The victims were primarily ethnic Irigwe farmers, who are the majority of Gidan Ado’s population. Irigwe community leaders and Plateau State officials confirmed the attack, calling on security forces to apprehend the perpetrators. As of writing, security forces have not commented on the attack as investigations are ongoing. 

Assessments & Forecast – This comes amid persistent insecurity across Nigeria’s middle-belt states, including Plateau, due to entrenched criminality, recurrent intercommunal violence between farming communities and Fulani herders, and increased presence of bandits. The fact that the victims were almost exclusively ethnic Irigwe suggests it was likely an ethnic-motivated attack, although the involvement of bandits or local criminals cannot be excluded. This attack comes despite bolstered security deployments ahead of the holidays to five of Plateau’s LGAs, including Riyom. To that end, the attack illustrates the ineffectiveness of security measures given deep-rooted weaknesses in addition to the challenge of a requirement for increased security presence across a large geographical area. Similar attacks will likely recur despite expected security operations.

Current Situation – Reports indicate that the Constitutional Council (CC) declared itself incompetent in ruling on the appeal submitted by opposition Takku Wallu Senegal (TWS) coalition member Barthelemy Dias over his dismissal from the National Assembly. According to lawyers, there is no other judicial recourse to invalidate Dias’s removal. 

Assessments & Forecast – This follows Dias’ removal from the mayoral position and National Assembly on December 13, citing his December 2023 conviction for homicide, and after he filed two separate appeals to contest the decision. This also comes after the CC declared itself incompetent to rule over a TWS appeal contesting National Assembly appointments, perceived to benefit the ruling African Patriots of Senegal for Work, Ethics, and Fraternity (PASTEF) on December 18. Therefore, Dias will likely portray this latest development as PASTEF-orchestrated to silence the opposition. This leaves Dias with no other recourse to invalidate the procedure in order to recover his seat as a deputy, which is set to deepen Dias supporters’ grievances against the authorities. Tensions will persist ahead of a final ruling over Dias’ removal from the mayoral position expected on December 31.

Current Situation – Reports indicate that Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF)-aligned Darfuri armed groups claimed to have killed 200 Rapid Support Forces (RSF) fighters in El-Fasher. Meanwhile, RSF shelling reportedly destroyed the Saudi Hospital in the city. In an official statement, SAF claimed that its allied Darfuri armed groups “liberated” the North Darfur State’s al-Siyah and al-Malha areas from RSF. Meanwhile, clashes persisted in Khartoum North, with SAF allegedly calling on civilians to evacuate the Shambat neighborhood.

Assessments & Forecast – This comes amid continued fighting in El-Fasher, the last SAF-controlled Darfuri state capital. Despite the intensified fighting, the claims of hundreds of RSF casualties are likely exaggerated and intended to portray SAF’s continued dominance in El-Fasher. RSF’s targeting of the Saudi Hospital, reported to be the last remaining functioning health center in El-Fasher is likely intended to amplify pressure by exacerbating humanitarian difficulties. The continued fighting suggests that the current stalemate for control over the city is poised to persist. Meanwhile, clashes are also expected to persist near Khartoum North’s Shambat neighborhood as SAF continues with efforts to progress towards the area, alongside other conflict hotspots nationwide.