06
Nov 2025
12:31 UTC
Lebanon Tactical: Cabinet session on Hezbollah disarmament, election reform, slated for 15:00 on November 6 at Baabda Palace; avoid nonessential travel, vicinity of protests
Current Situation:
- A cabinet meeting is slated for 15:00 (local time) on November 6 at the Baabda Presidential Palace, located approximately five kilometers southeast of Beirut.
- The cabinet will reportedly discuss the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) report on the status of the disarmament of Hezbollah, as well as a proposed draft amendment to Lebanon’s electoral law.
- On November 6, Hezbollah issued a statement affirming its “legitimate right” to armed resistance and rejecting any negotiations between Israel and Lebanon.
Source: NNA
Assessment & Forecast:
- The cabinet discussion comes amid increasing pressure on the Lebanese government, including by US officials and through intensified Israeli airstrikes, to take active steps to disarm Hezbollah, especially ahead of the late-November deadline reportedly set by US envoy Tom Barack. While the LAF report will likely seek to project progress, recent reports indicate that the Lebanese armed group has intensified its efforts to reconstitute its military capabilities. In addition, Hezbollah’s statement signals its continued defiance of disarmament demands.
- Meanwhile, among the electoral law amendments proposed ahead of the 2026 elections, one would expand voting rights for expatriates from six assigned seats to all 128 Members of Parliament. This continues to be opposed by the Hezbollah-Amal Movement duo, reflecting their concerns that greater diaspora participation could undermine their parliamentary influence by favoring rival parties.
- FORECAST: The Cabinet session is liable to heighten domestic political polarization, including by increasing friction between Hezbollah supporters and other factions backing the group’s disarmament and electoral reforms. Government efforts to demonstrate greater compliance with disarmament efforts will prompt the opposition of Hezbollah representatives and supporters.
- FORECAST: Protests may materialize near the Presidential Palace, LAF sites, and in Hezbollah strongholds such as southern Beirut’s Dahiyeh, located two km northeast of the airport. A bolstered security presence can be anticipated near government institutions. Discussions on the electoral law may also prompt demonstrations by Christian and Sunni factions, increasing the risk of inter-sectarian friction in mixed or contested localities. Localized unrest and traffic disruptions near protest locations cannot be ruled out.
Recommendations:
- Those operating or residing in Beirut on November 6 are advised to avoid nonessential travel to the Baabda Presidential Palace due to the slated Cabinet session.
- Avoid all travel to Hezbollah’s stronghold in the Dahiyeh suburb and remain cognizant of the potential for pro-Hezbollah protests in other areas of Beirut. Avoid the vicinity of such gatherings, should they materialize, due to the potential for associated unrest.
- Those intending to travel to Beirut’s Rafic Hariri International Airport during the afternoon and evening hours on November 6 are advised to allot additional time for travel due to the potential for traffic delays on thoroughfares in the area.
- Refrain from engaging in politically oriented conversations surrounding Hezbollah’s disarmament, Israel, the US, Iran, and the overall political situation in Lebanon.
COUNTRY RISK LEVEL
High
AFFECTED AREA
Baabda, Mount Lebanon; Lebanon
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL
High
STRENGTH OF SOURCE
Confirmed
Current Situation:
- A cabinet meeting is slated for 15:00 (local time) on November 6 at the Baabda Presidential Palace, located approximately five kilometers southeast of Beirut.
- The cabinet will reportedly discuss the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) report on the status of the disarmament of Hezbollah, as well as a proposed draft amendment to Lebanon’s electoral law.
- On November 6, Hezbollah issued a statement affirming its “legitimate right” to armed resistance and rejecting any negotiations between Israel and Lebanon.
Source: NNA
Assessment & Forecast:
- The cabinet discussion comes amid increasing pressure on the Lebanese government, including by US officials and through intensified Israeli airstrikes, to take active steps to disarm Hezbollah, especially ahead of the late-November deadline reportedly set by US envoy Tom Barack. While the LAF report will likely seek to project progress, recent reports indicate that the Lebanese armed group has intensified its efforts to reconstitute its military capabilities. In addition, Hezbollah’s statement signals its continued defiance of disarmament demands.
- Meanwhile, among the electoral law amendments proposed ahead of the 2026 elections, one would expand voting rights for expatriates from six assigned seats to all 128 Members of Parliament. This continues to be opposed by the Hezbollah-Amal Movement duo, reflecting their concerns that greater diaspora participation could undermine their parliamentary influence by favoring rival parties.
- FORECAST: The Cabinet session is liable to heighten domestic political polarization, including by increasing friction between Hezbollah supporters and other factions backing the group’s disarmament and electoral reforms. Government efforts to demonstrate greater compliance with disarmament efforts will prompt the opposition of Hezbollah representatives and supporters.
- FORECAST: Protests may materialize near the Presidential Palace, LAF sites, and in Hezbollah strongholds such as southern Beirut’s Dahiyeh, located two km northeast of the airport. A bolstered security presence can be anticipated near government institutions. Discussions on the electoral law may also prompt demonstrations by Christian and Sunni factions, increasing the risk of inter-sectarian friction in mixed or contested localities. Localized unrest and traffic disruptions near protest locations cannot be ruled out.
Recommendations:
- Those operating or residing in Beirut on November 6 are advised to avoid nonessential travel to the Baabda Presidential Palace due to the slated Cabinet session.
- Avoid all travel to Hezbollah’s stronghold in the Dahiyeh suburb and remain cognizant of the potential for pro-Hezbollah protests in other areas of Beirut. Avoid the vicinity of such gatherings, should they materialize, due to the potential for associated unrest.
- Those intending to travel to Beirut’s Rafic Hariri International Airport during the afternoon and evening hours on November 6 are advised to allot additional time for travel due to the potential for traffic delays on thoroughfares in the area.
- Refrain from engaging in politically oriented conversations surrounding Hezbollah’s disarmament, Israel, the US, Iran, and the overall political situation in Lebanon.
COUNTRY RISK LEVEL
High
AFFECTED AREA
Baabda, Mount Lebanon; Lebanon
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL
High
STRENGTH OF SOURCE
Confirmed
Related Reports
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ProtestLebanon Tactical: Public contract teachers’ protest slated in Beirut at 10:30 on November 27; maintain heightened vigilance -
TravelLebanon Tactical: Funeral procession for Hezbollah’s Chief of Staff slated in Beirut’s Dahiyeh at 14:00 on November 24; avoid nonessential travel
Related Reports
Lebanon
-
TravelLebanon Tactical: Hezbollah to hold commemorative ceremony for slain Chief of Staff in Beirut on November 28; maintain heightened vigilance
-
TravelLebanon Tactical: Authorities announce traffic restrictions on airport tunnels in Beirut-Khaldeh route from evening hours of November 26; allot for disruptions
-
ProtestLebanon Tactical: Public contract teachers’ protest slated in Beirut at 10:30 on November 27; maintain heightened vigilance
-
TravelLebanon Tactical: Funeral procession for Hezbollah’s Chief of Staff slated in Beirut’s Dahiyeh at 14:00 on November 24; avoid nonessential travel