Armed Conflict

06
Jan 2025
7:29 UTC

Korean Peninsula SITUATION UPDATE: North Korea fires IRBM into East Sea on January 6; aims to project strength ahead of Trump inauguration

Current Situation:

  • South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) confirmed that North Korea launched a suspected intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) from the vicinity of Pyongyang towards the East Sea on January 6.  
  • According to the JCS, the ballistic missiles flew for approximately 1,100 km before landing in open waters. Further details on the missile type and flight altitude remain undisclosed, as of writing. 
  • The JCS denounced the launch as a “clear provocation.” 
  • Pyongyang’s previous missile test was conducted on November 5, 2024, which included at least seven short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs). 
  • The US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken met with South Korea’s acting President Choi Sang-mok in Seoul on January 6 to discuss bilateral security cooperation and strategies to address North Korea’s provocations. 

Source: Yonhap, NHK, Reuters, APNews 

Assessments & Forecast:

  1. The coinciding missile launch with Blinken’s Seoul visit reiterates Pyongyang’s anti-US posturing stemming from the alleged establishment of a “military bloc for aggression” with Washington’s deepening defense cooperation with South Korea and Japan. The choice of an IRBM amid the recently routine tests of SRBMs also highlights Kim Jong Un’s pledge in December 2024 to adopt the “toughest” counteraction strategy toward the US. Further, the missile launch also aligns with North Korea’s tendency for posturing tactics around major US political events, such as President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20.  
  2. While further details of the missile remain undisclosed, as of writing, it is suspected to have similar characteristics to Pyongyang’s previous IRBMs launched in January and April 2024. The previous IRBMs were reported to be hypersonic glide missiles featuring a new solid-fuel design, capable of evading missile defense systems. Should such details be confirmed, this will mark North Korea’s longest ever flight of a hypersonic IRBM; the missile launched in April covered approximately 600 km. These apparently increased capabilities indicate Pyongyang’s sustained focus on technological upgrades. The gap of two months since the last missile test in November 2024 was also likely informed by such undertakings.  
  3. FORECAST: North Korea’s aggressive posturing through missile launches is expected to continue over the coming weeks, ahead of President-elect Trump’s inauguration. This will potentially include another IRBM launch to test the apparent technological upgrades. While the risk of direct conflict remains low, particularly given North Korea’s engagement in the Ukraine conflict, heightened vigilance along the inter-Korean Military Demarcation Line (MDL) is expected over the coming period. Additionally, the US is likely to deploy aircraft carriers or submarines for South Korea visits as a deterrence strategy. This strategy may also likely include joint military drills in the region. 

Recommendations:

  1. We advise against nonessential travel to North Korea on January 6 and over the coming days due to the uncertain security situation.  
  2. While there is a lingering risk of conflict with North Korea, travel to Seoul may continue at this time while adhering to standard security protocols.    
  3. During periods of armed escalation between North and South Korea, we advise against all nonessential travel to the vicinity of the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ).    
  4. In the event of a projectile landing closer to the South Korean mainland, remain cognizant of authorities’ alerts regarding taking shelter. 
COUNTRY RISK LEVEL High
AFFECTED AREA Korean Peninsula
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL High
STRENGTH OF SOURCE Credible

Current Situation:

  • South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) confirmed that North Korea launched a suspected intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) from the vicinity of Pyongyang towards the East Sea on January 6.  
  • According to the JCS, the ballistic missiles flew for approximately 1,100 km before landing in open waters. Further details on the missile type and flight altitude remain undisclosed, as of writing. 
  • The JCS denounced the launch as a “clear provocation.” 
  • Pyongyang’s previous missile test was conducted on November 5, 2024, which included at least seven short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs). 
  • The US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken met with South Korea’s acting President Choi Sang-mok in Seoul on January 6 to discuss bilateral security cooperation and strategies to address North Korea’s provocations. 

Source: Yonhap, NHK, Reuters, APNews 

Assessments & Forecast:

  1. The coinciding missile launch with Blinken’s Seoul visit reiterates Pyongyang’s anti-US posturing stemming from the alleged establishment of a “military bloc for aggression” with Washington’s deepening defense cooperation with South Korea and Japan. The choice of an IRBM amid the recently routine tests of SRBMs also highlights Kim Jong Un’s pledge in December 2024 to adopt the “toughest” counteraction strategy toward the US. Further, the missile launch also aligns with North Korea’s tendency for posturing tactics around major US political events, such as President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20.  
  2. While further details of the missile remain undisclosed, as of writing, it is suspected to have similar characteristics to Pyongyang’s previous IRBMs launched in January and April 2024. The previous IRBMs were reported to be hypersonic glide missiles featuring a new solid-fuel design, capable of evading missile defense systems. Should such details be confirmed, this will mark North Korea’s longest ever flight of a hypersonic IRBM; the missile launched in April covered approximately 600 km. These apparently increased capabilities indicate Pyongyang’s sustained focus on technological upgrades. The gap of two months since the last missile test in November 2024 was also likely informed by such undertakings.  
  3. FORECAST: North Korea’s aggressive posturing through missile launches is expected to continue over the coming weeks, ahead of President-elect Trump’s inauguration. This will potentially include another IRBM launch to test the apparent technological upgrades. While the risk of direct conflict remains low, particularly given North Korea’s engagement in the Ukraine conflict, heightened vigilance along the inter-Korean Military Demarcation Line (MDL) is expected over the coming period. Additionally, the US is likely to deploy aircraft carriers or submarines for South Korea visits as a deterrence strategy. This strategy may also likely include joint military drills in the region. 

Recommendations:

  1. We advise against nonessential travel to North Korea on January 6 and over the coming days due to the uncertain security situation.  
  2. While there is a lingering risk of conflict with North Korea, travel to Seoul may continue at this time while adhering to standard security protocols.    
  3. During periods of armed escalation between North and South Korea, we advise against all nonessential travel to the vicinity of the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ).    
  4. In the event of a projectile landing closer to the South Korean mainland, remain cognizant of authorities’ alerts regarding taking shelter. 
COUNTRY RISK LEVEL High
AFFECTED AREA Korean Peninsula
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL High
STRENGTH OF SOURCE Credible

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