22
Mar 2025
11:08 UTC
Israel & Lebanon Alert (UPDATE): IDF conducts strikes in Lebanon following launch of rockets into northern Israel during morning hours of March 22; unlikely to prompt large-scale escalation
Current Situation:
- During the morning hours of March 22 (local time), the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced the interception of three rockets fired from Lebanon towards Israel.
- The rockets triggered Color Red sirens in northern Israel’s Metulla.
- According to Israel’s Army Radio, the launches originated from southern Lebanon’s Arnoun area, six km north of Metulla.
- Following the interception, Lebanese state media reported that Israeli forces were conducting clearing operations with machine guns from southern Lebanon’s al-Hamames mountain, approximately two km northeast of Metulla, with aerial support.
- Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz reportedly reaffirmed Israel’s commitment to securing the Galilee communities, stating that “the fate of Metulla is the same as the fate of Beirut.”
- No group has claimed responsibility for the rocket attack as of the time of writing.
- The IDF stated that Home Front Command guidelines for northern Israel remain unchanged at this time, but that the IDF would respond “severely” to the launches.
- As of the early afternoon hours of March 22, the IDF stated that it had begun striking Hezbollah-linked targets in southern Lebanon.
Source: Israel Defense Forces
Assessments & Forecast:
- The rocket launches mark the first attack on northern Israel from Lebanon since December 2024. The attack follows an increase in attempted rocket attacks against Israel, including from Gaza and Yemen, after Israel resumed military operations in the Gaza Strip on March 17–18. While no actor has claimed responsibility as of the time of writing, it is highly likely that Israel will perceive Hezbollah as responsible, given that the group continues to maintain offensive capabilities despite Israeli military efforts to degrade them.
- FORECAST: Considering that the rocket attacks indicate a continued threat to northern Israel, the IDF is likely to expand its operations in southern Lebanon to contain threats posed by Hezbollah. However, such operations are expected to remain limited to identifying and neutralizing immediate threats and are unlikely to escalate into large-scale operations at this time. Additionally, the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) will likely also seek to conduct operations in the areas that the rockets originated from to project their efforts to maintain the ceasefire and reduce the likelihood of a greater Israeli military response.
- FORECAST: The Israeli defense minister’s statements indicate Israel’s intent to retaliate and reinforce deterrence against Lebanon-based actors, including in Beirut. While the possibility of strikes in Beirut cannot be entirely ruled out, this scenario is less likely given that it would be considered an escalation by both the Lebanese government and Hezbollah with the potential to prompt an increase in hostilities.
Recommendations:
- Continue to closely monitor regional developments and Home Front Command (HFC) guidelines, which may change on short notice. Remain cognizant of the whereabouts of shelters/safe areas at all times.
- Continue to avoid travel to the Israel-Lebanon border area in light of tensions surrounding the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah.
- Those operating or residing within Israel are advised to continuously prepare, update, and review contingency plans due to the volatile security situation
- It is advised to closely monitor statements published by the IDF’s Arabic Language spokesperson, Avichay Adraee, over the coming hours and days as these may include information, such as evacuation orders, which may signal a potential resumption of Israeli strikes in Beirut
- MAX Security has strong on-ground capabilities in Israel, including contingency consultation and planning. Contact us at operations@max-security.com or +44 20-3540-0434.
COUNTRY RISK LEVEL
Medium
AFFECTED AREA
Northern Israel, Southern Lebanon
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL
Extreme
STRENGTH OF SOURCE
Confirmed
Current Situation:
- During the morning hours of March 22 (local time), the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced the interception of three rockets fired from Lebanon towards Israel.
- The rockets triggered Color Red sirens in northern Israel’s Metulla.
- According to Israel’s Army Radio, the launches originated from southern Lebanon’s Arnoun area, six km north of Metulla.
- Following the interception, Lebanese state media reported that Israeli forces were conducting clearing operations with machine guns from southern Lebanon’s al-Hamames mountain, approximately two km northeast of Metulla, with aerial support.
- Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz reportedly reaffirmed Israel’s commitment to securing the Galilee communities, stating that “the fate of Metulla is the same as the fate of Beirut.”
- No group has claimed responsibility for the rocket attack as of the time of writing.
- The IDF stated that Home Front Command guidelines for northern Israel remain unchanged at this time, but that the IDF would respond “severely” to the launches.
- As of the early afternoon hours of March 22, the IDF stated that it had begun striking Hezbollah-linked targets in southern Lebanon.
Source: Israel Defense Forces
Assessments & Forecast:
- The rocket launches mark the first attack on northern Israel from Lebanon since December 2024. The attack follows an increase in attempted rocket attacks against Israel, including from Gaza and Yemen, after Israel resumed military operations in the Gaza Strip on March 17–18. While no actor has claimed responsibility as of the time of writing, it is highly likely that Israel will perceive Hezbollah as responsible, given that the group continues to maintain offensive capabilities despite Israeli military efforts to degrade them.
- FORECAST: Considering that the rocket attacks indicate a continued threat to northern Israel, the IDF is likely to expand its operations in southern Lebanon to contain threats posed by Hezbollah. However, such operations are expected to remain limited to identifying and neutralizing immediate threats and are unlikely to escalate into large-scale operations at this time. Additionally, the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) will likely also seek to conduct operations in the areas that the rockets originated from to project their efforts to maintain the ceasefire and reduce the likelihood of a greater Israeli military response.
- FORECAST: The Israeli defense minister’s statements indicate Israel’s intent to retaliate and reinforce deterrence against Lebanon-based actors, including in Beirut. While the possibility of strikes in Beirut cannot be entirely ruled out, this scenario is less likely given that it would be considered an escalation by both the Lebanese government and Hezbollah with the potential to prompt an increase in hostilities.
Recommendations:
- Continue to closely monitor regional developments and Home Front Command (HFC) guidelines, which may change on short notice. Remain cognizant of the whereabouts of shelters/safe areas at all times.
- Continue to avoid travel to the Israel-Lebanon border area in light of tensions surrounding the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah.
- Those operating or residing within Israel are advised to continuously prepare, update, and review contingency plans due to the volatile security situation
- It is advised to closely monitor statements published by the IDF’s Arabic Language spokesperson, Avichay Adraee, over the coming hours and days as these may include information, such as evacuation orders, which may signal a potential resumption of Israeli strikes in Beirut
- MAX Security has strong on-ground capabilities in Israel, including contingency consultation and planning. Contact us at operations@max-security.com or +44 20-3540-0434.
COUNTRY RISK LEVEL
Medium
AFFECTED AREA
Northern Israel, Southern Lebanon
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL
Extreme
STRENGTH OF SOURCE
Confirmed
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Related Reports
Israel
-
DevelopingIsrael Alert (UPDATE): IDF confirms interception of one missile launched from Yemen on March 30; continue adhering to warning sirens
-
TravelIsrael & Lebanon Alert (UPDATE): IDF issues evacuation orders for location in southern Beirut’s Hadath neighbourhood on March 28; avoid all travel
-
Rocket/MortarIsrael & Lebanon Alert (UPDATE): IDF confirms two launches from Lebanon that triggered Color Red sirens in northern Israel during morning hours of March 28; continue to adhere to warning sirens
-
Rocket/MortarIsrael Alert (UPDATE): IDF confirms interception of missile launched from Yemen during evening hours of March 24; continue adhering to warning sirens