27
Jan 2025
8:24 UTC
Israel & Palestinian Territories Alert (UPDATE): Mediation efforts succeed on January 26-27 following previous discrepancy in hostage release; reiterates parties’ desire to see through first phase of truce
Current Situation:
- During the overnight hours of January 26-27, the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) announced a successful resolution of the crisis over Hamas’ failure to release the Israeli hostage, Arbel Yehud.
- The PMO indicated that Hamas has backtracked and will be releasing an additional group of Israeli hostages on Thursday (January 30) including Yehud.
- This is in addition to the expected release of another batch of three Israeli hostages, as per the original truce agreement, which is set to occur on February 1.
- Furthermore, the PMO stated that Hamas also delivered a list detailing the health status of all the Israeli hostages who will be released during Phase One of the truce (first 42 days).
- With this matter having been resolved, Israel has allowed the return of Gazans back into the northern part of the Gaza Strip (crossing the Netzarim Corridor) starting from the morning hours of January 27.
- Since 07:00 on January 27, return by foot through the al-Rashid (coastal) road was allowed, following the opening of the Salah al-Din Road to the movement of cars (after security screening).
- The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) stated that transferring weapons to the northern Gaza Strip would be considered a violation of the truce.
Source: PMO
Assessments & Forecast:
- Arbel Yehud was held by the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) in joint custody with another jihadist faction in Gaza. This faction classified Yehud as a soldier rather than a civilian, contradicting her formal designation as a civilian in the truce agreement. Yehud was expected to be released in the January 25 batch and her absence created a discrepancy that the Israeli government was quick to highlight. Israel’s determination to hold Hamas accountable for this discrepancy, and to block the return of tens of thousands of Gazans to the northern Gaza Strip more than a year after their evacuation, underscores its resolve to enforce the agreement’s terms. This is likely important from an Israeli standpoint, as allowing any deviations from the agreement could be perceived by Palestinian militant groups as a sign of weakness, potentially inviting further discrepancies and manipulation of the truce by Palestinian militant factions. At the same time, Israel exercised its leverage without disrupting the release of Palestinian prisoners under the agreement, signaling its intent to avoid jeopardizing the truce while ensuring the release of the 33 hostages outlined in the first phase. This approach reflects a balance between maintaining pressure on Hamas and upholding key aspects of the ceasefire.
- Hamas’ agreement to Israel’s demands and the mediators’ efforts, despite the fact that Yehud was held by different factions, demonstrates Hamas’s interest in maintaining the truce, at least during the first phase. It also reflects the level of influence and coordination Hamas retains with other militant factions in Gaza, particularly the PIJ, whose members were involved in the January 25 release of four Israeli individuals. A key factor motivating Hamas’s decision was likely Israel’s partial redeployment from the Netzarim Corridor and the movement of civilians back to the northern Gaza Strip. As reported footage indicates, the IDF is not conducting screenings of the population traveling north along al-Rashid Road. This could present a security concern, potentially allowing Hamas to reorganize and strengthen its presence in northern Gaza ahead of a possible resumption of hostilities after Phase One of the truce. However, the return of tens of thousands of Gazans to the northern Gaza Strip will likely face major challenges, as much of the housing in the area has been destroyed. This return is therefore unlikely to alleviate the broader humanitarian crisis in Gaza.
Recommendations:
- Those operating or residing in the MENA region are advised to continue following developments related to the first phase of the truce.
- Those operating or residing in Israel are advised to continue to adhere to all Home Front Command (HFC) guidelines.
- Avoid all travel to within ten km (six miles) of the Gaza Strip due to the potential for ceasefire violations to occur.
- Remain cognizant of the potential for spontaneous gatherings and protests across Israel over the coming weeks amid heightened political tensions in light of the ceasefire.
- MAX Security has strong on-ground capabilities in Israel, including contingency consultation and planning. Contact us at operations@max-security.com or +44 20-3540-0434.
Militancy
For travelers/residents/expats
- Those operating or residing in Israel are advised to remain extra vigilant due to the potential for additional attempted attacks materializing.
- Remain vigilant in crowded commercial areas or public transport hubs, as these locations have been targeted by militants in the past. Be vigilant of and alert authorities to any unattended packages or suspicious individuals in these areas.
- In outdoor leisure activities at night, favor sitting in restaurants and bars’ inner area rather than the open-air section, which are more vulnerable to attacks. Refrain from large gatherings outside major nightlife venues.
- If an attack unfolds within your vicinity, immediately seek cover, and try to safely disengage from the area as quickly as possible. This is given the risk of secondary attacks and shooting towards assailants by security forces and armed civilians, which could cause collateral damage.
For security managers
- Consider providing situational awareness training for employees, providing them with best practices and procedures relevant for periods of elevated militancy threats.
- Please contact us for further information and support.
AFFECTED AREA
Israel, Palestinian Territories; MENA
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL
Medium
STRENGTH OF SOURCE
Confirmed
Current Situation:
- During the overnight hours of January 26-27, the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) announced a successful resolution of the crisis over Hamas’ failure to release the Israeli hostage, Arbel Yehud.
- The PMO indicated that Hamas has backtracked and will be releasing an additional group of Israeli hostages on Thursday (January 30) including Yehud.
- This is in addition to the expected release of another batch of three Israeli hostages, as per the original truce agreement, which is set to occur on February 1.
- Furthermore, the PMO stated that Hamas also delivered a list detailing the health status of all the Israeli hostages who will be released during Phase One of the truce (first 42 days).
- With this matter having been resolved, Israel has allowed the return of Gazans back into the northern part of the Gaza Strip (crossing the Netzarim Corridor) starting from the morning hours of January 27.
- Since 07:00 on January 27, return by foot through the al-Rashid (coastal) road was allowed, following the opening of the Salah al-Din Road to the movement of cars (after security screening).
- The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) stated that transferring weapons to the northern Gaza Strip would be considered a violation of the truce.
Source: PMO
Assessments & Forecast:
- Arbel Yehud was held by the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) in joint custody with another jihadist faction in Gaza. This faction classified Yehud as a soldier rather than a civilian, contradicting her formal designation as a civilian in the truce agreement. Yehud was expected to be released in the January 25 batch and her absence created a discrepancy that the Israeli government was quick to highlight. Israel’s determination to hold Hamas accountable for this discrepancy, and to block the return of tens of thousands of Gazans to the northern Gaza Strip more than a year after their evacuation, underscores its resolve to enforce the agreement’s terms. This is likely important from an Israeli standpoint, as allowing any deviations from the agreement could be perceived by Palestinian militant groups as a sign of weakness, potentially inviting further discrepancies and manipulation of the truce by Palestinian militant factions. At the same time, Israel exercised its leverage without disrupting the release of Palestinian prisoners under the agreement, signaling its intent to avoid jeopardizing the truce while ensuring the release of the 33 hostages outlined in the first phase. This approach reflects a balance between maintaining pressure on Hamas and upholding key aspects of the ceasefire.
- Hamas’ agreement to Israel’s demands and the mediators’ efforts, despite the fact that Yehud was held by different factions, demonstrates Hamas’s interest in maintaining the truce, at least during the first phase. It also reflects the level of influence and coordination Hamas retains with other militant factions in Gaza, particularly the PIJ, whose members were involved in the January 25 release of four Israeli individuals. A key factor motivating Hamas’s decision was likely Israel’s partial redeployment from the Netzarim Corridor and the movement of civilians back to the northern Gaza Strip. As reported footage indicates, the IDF is not conducting screenings of the population traveling north along al-Rashid Road. This could present a security concern, potentially allowing Hamas to reorganize and strengthen its presence in northern Gaza ahead of a possible resumption of hostilities after Phase One of the truce. However, the return of tens of thousands of Gazans to the northern Gaza Strip will likely face major challenges, as much of the housing in the area has been destroyed. This return is therefore unlikely to alleviate the broader humanitarian crisis in Gaza.
Recommendations:
- Those operating or residing in the MENA region are advised to continue following developments related to the first phase of the truce.
- Those operating or residing in Israel are advised to continue to adhere to all Home Front Command (HFC) guidelines.
- Avoid all travel to within ten km (six miles) of the Gaza Strip due to the potential for ceasefire violations to occur.
- Remain cognizant of the potential for spontaneous gatherings and protests across Israel over the coming weeks amid heightened political tensions in light of the ceasefire.
- MAX Security has strong on-ground capabilities in Israel, including contingency consultation and planning. Contact us at operations@max-security.com or +44 20-3540-0434.
Militancy
For travelers/residents/expats
- Those operating or residing in Israel are advised to remain extra vigilant due to the potential for additional attempted attacks materializing.
- Remain vigilant in crowded commercial areas or public transport hubs, as these locations have been targeted by militants in the past. Be vigilant of and alert authorities to any unattended packages or suspicious individuals in these areas.
- In outdoor leisure activities at night, favor sitting in restaurants and bars’ inner area rather than the open-air section, which are more vulnerable to attacks. Refrain from large gatherings outside major nightlife venues.
- If an attack unfolds within your vicinity, immediately seek cover, and try to safely disengage from the area as quickly as possible. This is given the risk of secondary attacks and shooting towards assailants by security forces and armed civilians, which could cause collateral damage.
For security managers
- Consider providing situational awareness training for employees, providing them with best practices and procedures relevant for periods of elevated militancy threats.
- Please contact us for further information and support.