• Following Hamas’s reported attack on October 19, the consultation between Prime Minister (PM) Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz has ended.  
• No immediate formal statement was provided by the government as of the time of writing.  
• Multiple political figures in Israel, including opposition members, have called for a decisive response against Hamas. 

1. This comes amid tensions between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip since the first phase of the truce took effect. While Hamas has released all of the living Israeli hostages it held within the stipulated timeframe, tensions have revolved around Hamas’ apparent unwillingness or inability to return all of the deceased Israeli hostages promptly, with 16 bodies remaining in the Strip at the current juncture. In response to this, Israel has exerted pressure on the mediators and sanctioned Hamas, mainly by suspending the planned opening of the Rafah Border Crossing slated for October 20.  
2. However, Israel will likely assess the alleged Anti-Tank Guided Missile (ATGM) attack as the first major armed conflict-related violation by Hamas of President Trump’s truce, marking an escalation. As such, the Israeli government will view the development as a significant test of its limits and red lines in Gaza. Furthermore, it also represents the first such instance in which Israel’s leverage is significantly greater, considering the accomplished return of all of its living hostages from Gaza.  
3. FORECAST: In light of these factors, and in addition to the initial strikes that Israel undertook as an immediate response to the reported attack, the Israeli government will be more likely to resort to a more forceful and kinetic response to the development. This stands in contrast to its decisions until October 19, in which it favored diplomatic tools such as pressure on mediators and limited sanctions against Hamas.  
4. FORECAST: Despite the fact that Jerusalem will continue to formally project its commitment to President Trump’s truce plan, armed conflict is thus likely to escalate throughout the Gaza Strip in the immediate timeframe. Israel may potentially employ additional mechanisms of leverage, such as blocking aid in conjunction with a military response. In this context, the risk of Houthi aerial attacks against Israel and/or maritime attacks in regional waterways near Yemeni territory in the immediate timeframe will also increase. The Yemen-based movement is highly likely to embrace Hamas’ narrative of events and accuse Israel of finding an excuse to return to hostilities.  

1. Continue avoiding all travel to the Gaza Strip due to the reported development and the prospects for further armed conflict in the enclave on October 19 and over the coming days. 
2. Those operating or residing in Israel over the coming hours on October 19 are advised to continue monitoring developments and avoid travel to the immediate vicinity of the Gaza border fence. 

During Color Red sirens: 

1. Prefer reaching a shelter if possible. In “Mamads” (residential secure spaces), ensure that the room’s steel door and outer steel window are both locked to maintain safety. 
2. Remain in the shelter following the sounding of Color Red sirens until a follow-up “all-clear” notification from the HFC due to the risk of falling shrapnel and fragments. 
3. Approach the safe area calmly and remain cognizant of the fact that many injuries occur when people are running to the shelter panicked.    
4. If such a designated Mamad does not exist: 
5. Go to a room with as few external walls, windows, and openings as possible, sit on the floor below the window line, and near an internal wall.  
6. In an open area, lay down on the ground and cover your head with your hands.   
7. When driving, safely pull over and check your surroundings before vacating your vehicle and following the above instructions.