• During the night hours of May 4, the Houthi Military Spokesperson, Yahya Saree, announced that the Houthis will work to impose a comprehensive aerial blockade on Israel by repeatedly targeting its airports, most notably the Ben Gurion International Airport (TLV).  
• The statement called upon all international airlines to consider this and cancel all their scheduled flights to Israel, to preserve the safety of their aircraft and agents.  
• Earlier on May 4, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) stated that it had finalized an initial investigation of the direct missile impact at the airport’s perimeter, and the assessment is that a technical failure in one of the interceptors caused the interception failure.  

1. There is currently no evidence to suggest that the Houthis have utilized new missile technology that enabled them to successfully circumvent Israel’s robust aerial defense umbrella in a manner that would become a trend. Since the beginning of the war, Israel has intercepted above 95 percent of Houthi-launched projectiles. More recently, since the collapse of the Israel-Hamas truce on March 18, the Houthis have launched at least 27 missiles against Israel, out of which ten were directed against the Ben Gurion Airport. All of them either failed on their way or were intercepted. FORECAST: In light of the above, and together with the current assessment that a technical issue caused the interception failure on May 4, Israel will likely continue to demonstrate high interception rates of Houthi munitions.  
2. Nevertheless, the Houthis’ latest statements, coming against the backdrop of the earlier missile impact, are highly notable. They likely constitute an attempt to magnify the psychological impact of their earlier attack and further push international air carriers to cancel and suspend flights to and from Israel. The statements are partially backed by a current surge in Houthi missile attacks against Israel, which included six attempted attacks since the beginning of May, compared to eight throughout an entire month in April. By increasing the pace of their launches, the Houthis are demonstrating their capacity to sustain a high pace of launches, at least in the short term, despite the ongoing US aerial campaign against them. It also shows the Houthis’ continued motivation and commitment to provide support to Hamas in Gaza, especially as Israel is bracing to relaunch a significant ground maneuver in the Gaza Strip.
3. FORECAST: The combination of the earlier missile impact and the new Houthi threat will likely compound international airliners’ concerns and will prompt further and extensive flight cancellations or suspensions. This will significantly diminish outbound flights and flight options for those seeking to fly out of Israel. Furthermore, it will also strain thousands of Israelis and foreign travelers who intend to fly to Israel in the coming days.  
4. FORECAST: The latest Houthi statements will also compound tensions and will further incentivise the Israeli government to launch retaliatory strikes against the Houthis, which may also extend to new complementary measures, such as cyber-attacks. This will prompt a tit-for-tat dynamic between the two sides over the coming days.  

Israel

1. Those operating or residing in Israel are advised to continue to adhere to all safety precautions regarding early warning sirens for incoming rockets. Sirens may be heard throughout the country.
2. Those intending to travel through Ben Gurion International Airport on May 4 and over the coming days are advised to reconfirm travel itineraries and allot for extensive flight disruptions.
3. Ensure that working environments are within reach of bomb shelters/safe rooms.
4. When a Color Red siren is sounded: If a designated shelter exists, immediately go there. In “Mamads” (residential secure spaces), make sure to lock the outer steel window of the room (and not only the glass window), as well as the steel door of the safe area, to ensure safety.
5. Approach the safe area calmly and remain cognizant of the fact that many injuries occur when people are running to the shelter panicked.
6. If such a designated Mamad does not exist, go to a room with as few external walls, windows, and openings as possible, sit on the floor below the window line, and near an internal wall.
7. In an open area, lay down on the ground and cover your head with your hands.
8. When driving, safely pull over and check your surroundings before vacating your vehicle, and follow the above instructions.
9. Remain in the shelter for at least ten minutes following the sounding of Color Red sirens due to the risk of falling shrapnel and fragments.

Yemen

1. Avoid all travel to Yemen due to the volatile security environment and underlying risk of armed conflict, terrorism, crime, kidnappings, and unrest.
2. Those operating or residing in Yemen are advised to avoid the vicinity of any government, military, or strategic civilian infrastructure in Houthi-held areas due to the potential for Israeli retaliatory strikes against such facilities over the coming days and weeks. This includes the Sanaa International Airport.