03
Feb 2025
5:58 UTC
India Tactical: CPI-M to hold statewide protest across Tamil Nadu to denounce Union Budget on February 4; maintain vigilance
Current Situation:
- Tamil Nadu State Committee of the Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M) is slated to hold a statewide anti-government protest on February 4.
- In Chennai, the protest will be held near Thiruvanmiyur Signal from 10:00 (local time) and near the Ambedkar statue in Pallavaram during the evening hours on February 4.
- The protest will be held across all cities, towns, and villages of Tamil Nadu in opposition to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led central government’s Union Budget for the financial year 2025–26, alleging it to be anti-poor and middle-class.
Assessments & Forecast:
- The turnout for the slated protest is expected to vary across the state. In major urban centers such as Chennai, where the CPI-M enjoys comparatively greater support, participation is anticipated to range from the high dozens to low hundreds, contingent upon the CPI-M’s mobilization capabilities. Conversely, smaller cities are expected to witness relatively lower participation, with turnout estimated in the low-to-mid dozens. In accordance with standard security protocol, the authorities are likely to bolster security measures in key locations, including government buildings such as the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly in Chennai and the BJP offices in the city. These measures will likely encompass the deployment of additional police personnel and the establishment of barricades near protest sites to facilitate crowd control and maintain public order.
- Given the anti-government orientation of the demonstration and the heightened political sensitivity of the issue, the possibility of localized confrontations between protesters and security personnel cannot be discounted. This risk is particularly pronounced in scenarios where demonstrators engage in disruptive activities, such as obstructing major roadways or engaging in slogans perceived as provocative. In such instances, the authorities are likely to resort to crowd control measures, including the detention of protesters, to mitigate potential unrest. Travel disruptions in the vicinity of protest sites across the state are expected on February 4 due to the anticipated turnout and associated security measures.
Recommendations:
Those operating or residing in Tamil Nadu, including in Chennai, on February 4 are advised to maintain vigilance due to the slated statewide protest while allotting for travel disruptions near the demonstration sites.
COUNTRY RISK LEVEL
Medium
AFFECTED AREA
Tamil Nadu, India
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL
Medium
STRENGTH OF SOURCE
Credible
Current Situation:
- Tamil Nadu State Committee of the Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M) is slated to hold a statewide anti-government protest on February 4.
- In Chennai, the protest will be held near Thiruvanmiyur Signal from 10:00 (local time) and near the Ambedkar statue in Pallavaram during the evening hours on February 4.
- The protest will be held across all cities, towns, and villages of Tamil Nadu in opposition to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led central government’s Union Budget for the financial year 2025–26, alleging it to be anti-poor and middle-class.
Assessments & Forecast:
- The turnout for the slated protest is expected to vary across the state. In major urban centers such as Chennai, where the CPI-M enjoys comparatively greater support, participation is anticipated to range from the high dozens to low hundreds, contingent upon the CPI-M’s mobilization capabilities. Conversely, smaller cities are expected to witness relatively lower participation, with turnout estimated in the low-to-mid dozens. In accordance with standard security protocol, the authorities are likely to bolster security measures in key locations, including government buildings such as the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly in Chennai and the BJP offices in the city. These measures will likely encompass the deployment of additional police personnel and the establishment of barricades near protest sites to facilitate crowd control and maintain public order.
- Given the anti-government orientation of the demonstration and the heightened political sensitivity of the issue, the possibility of localized confrontations between protesters and security personnel cannot be discounted. This risk is particularly pronounced in scenarios where demonstrators engage in disruptive activities, such as obstructing major roadways or engaging in slogans perceived as provocative. In such instances, the authorities are likely to resort to crowd control measures, including the detention of protesters, to mitigate potential unrest. Travel disruptions in the vicinity of protest sites across the state are expected on February 4 due to the anticipated turnout and associated security measures.
Recommendations:
Those operating or residing in Tamil Nadu, including in Chennai, on February 4 are advised to maintain vigilance due to the slated statewide protest while allotting for travel disruptions near the demonstration sites.