• According to an official statement, opposition leader Ibrahima Sacko has called for a sit-in protest at MoDel Party the Liberal Democratic Movement (MoDel) Party’s national headquarters in Nongo, Conakry from 14:00 (local time) on January 25.
• The demonstration is being held under the #LiberezAliouBah movement banner, supported by various opposition activists, to demand the release of Aliou Bah and other detained political figures, perceived to be unlawfully detained.

1. This comes amid heightened tensions between the transitional authorities and opposition and civil society groups over the junta’s perceived targeting of dissenters and opposition leaders, resulting in sporadically recurring protests. These tensions were further fueled by the two-year prison sentence of MoDeL party leader Aliou Bah on January 7, on charges of defaming President Mamadi Doumbouya. Therefore, the demonstration reflects the opposition’s persistent frustrations over the junta’s perceived repressive tactics. 
2. FORECAST: Given the opposition’s heightened frustrations, additional opposition and civil society groupings may endorse the protest, with participants ranging in the low-to-mid hundreds expected to attend the sit-in. Given precedent, there is also a potential for spontaneous mobilizations to take place across Conakry. The government may also ban the gathering citing security concerns. 
3. FORECAST: A heightened security presence is likely near the MoDel headquarters to monitor the proceedings, with the security forces likely erecting barricades and roadblocks to restrict participants’ movements and prevent them from gathering or marching. Given the precedent of similar anti-government protests, the security forces can be expected to use force to disperse the protesters. In extreme cases, this might even include the use of live ammunition against demonstrators. This could trigger acts of unrest and scuffles between protesters and the security forces. Traffic disruptions are expected near the MoDel headquarters.

Those operating or residing in Conakry on January 25 are advised to avoid nonessential travel in the vicinity of large gatherings, particularly in the Nongo area, and avoid the vicinity of the MoDeL Party headquarters, due to the planned protest and the anticipated security crackdowns.