05
Feb 2025
6:24 UTC
Georgia Tactical: Multiple anti-government protests slated in Tbilisi from 12:30 (local time) on February 5; avoid vicinity of rallies
Current Situation:
- A public gathering is set to take place on 144 Akaki Tsereteli Avenue in Tbilisi at 12:30 (local time) on February 5.
- A rally is scheduled to march from Republic Square to Dimanisi Street, beginning at 15:00 on the same day.
- A demonstration is planned outside the Public Broadcaster of Georgia Building at 19:00 on February 5.
- A protest is scheduled outside the Parliament in Tbilisi at 20:00 on February 5.
- A public gathering is slated to be held under the Eagle Monument of the Georgian Museum of Fine Arts situated on Shota Rustaveli Avenue in Tbilisi at 21:30 on the day.
- The gatherings are part of an ongoing anti-ruling Georgian Dream (GD) movement to denounce the government’s perceived anti-democratic policies, including the November 2024 announcement to halt talks with the EU until 2028, as well as the perceived disproportionate crackdown on anti-GD protesters and call for fresh parliamentary elections.
Source: Facebook
Assessments & Forecast:
- The turnout for the protests is anticipated to range between the high dozens to the low hundreds at each location, based on precedent. The protests outside Parliament, the Georgian Museum of Fine Arts, and the Public Broadcaster building are likely to see increased attendance during the evening hours due to the probability of enhanced participation after work hours, potentially reaching the low-to-mid hundreds. Enhanced security measures are expected in the vicinity of the aforementioned locations, particularly outside Parliament, considering the sensitivity of the location. These measures will likely include the deployment of riot police and establishment of barricades.
- The high risk of clashes between the police and protesters will sustain, given the anti-government nature of the protests. The police are also anticipated to possess a low tolerance towards these events. The risk of clashes will also be elevated should the police arrest opposition leaders, as witnessed during a similar protest in Tbilisi on February 2. The authorities will respond to any actions deemed unruly, including breaching security protocols and the use of pyrotechnics by protesters. Reactionary measures will likely include temporary detentions, baton charges, water cannons, and tear gas to disperse crowds. Localized disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular traffic are expected in the vicinity of the aforementioned locations due to the expected turnout and associated security measures on February 5.
Recommendations:
Those operating or residing in Tbilisi on February 5 are advised to avoid nonessential travel in the vicinity of the aforementioned locations due to the slated protests and associated high risk of unrest while allotting for travel disruptions.
COUNTRY RISK LEVEL
Medium
AFFECTED AREA
Tbilisi, Georgia
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL
High
STRENGTH OF SOURCE
Credible
Current Situation:
- A public gathering is set to take place on 144 Akaki Tsereteli Avenue in Tbilisi at 12:30 (local time) on February 5.
- A rally is scheduled to march from Republic Square to Dimanisi Street, beginning at 15:00 on the same day.
- A demonstration is planned outside the Public Broadcaster of Georgia Building at 19:00 on February 5.
- A protest is scheduled outside the Parliament in Tbilisi at 20:00 on February 5.
- A public gathering is slated to be held under the Eagle Monument of the Georgian Museum of Fine Arts situated on Shota Rustaveli Avenue in Tbilisi at 21:30 on the day.
- The gatherings are part of an ongoing anti-ruling Georgian Dream (GD) movement to denounce the government’s perceived anti-democratic policies, including the November 2024 announcement to halt talks with the EU until 2028, as well as the perceived disproportionate crackdown on anti-GD protesters and call for fresh parliamentary elections.
Source: Facebook
Assessments & Forecast:
- The turnout for the protests is anticipated to range between the high dozens to the low hundreds at each location, based on precedent. The protests outside Parliament, the Georgian Museum of Fine Arts, and the Public Broadcaster building are likely to see increased attendance during the evening hours due to the probability of enhanced participation after work hours, potentially reaching the low-to-mid hundreds. Enhanced security measures are expected in the vicinity of the aforementioned locations, particularly outside Parliament, considering the sensitivity of the location. These measures will likely include the deployment of riot police and establishment of barricades.
- The high risk of clashes between the police and protesters will sustain, given the anti-government nature of the protests. The police are also anticipated to possess a low tolerance towards these events. The risk of clashes will also be elevated should the police arrest opposition leaders, as witnessed during a similar protest in Tbilisi on February 2. The authorities will respond to any actions deemed unruly, including breaching security protocols and the use of pyrotechnics by protesters. Reactionary measures will likely include temporary detentions, baton charges, water cannons, and tear gas to disperse crowds. Localized disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular traffic are expected in the vicinity of the aforementioned locations due to the expected turnout and associated security measures on February 5.
Recommendations:
Those operating or residing in Tbilisi on February 5 are advised to avoid nonessential travel in the vicinity of the aforementioned locations due to the slated protests and associated high risk of unrest while allotting for travel disruptions.