06
Oct 2025
10:35 UTC
France Alert: PM Sebastien Lecornu resigns after 28 days in office on October 6; protests demanding new elections likely in immediate-to-near term
Current Situation
- On October 6, Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu submitted his resignation to President Emmanuel Macron, who accepted it.
- This resignation follows Lecornu’s presentation on October 5 of the composition of his government. The cabinet, largely composed of figures from previous administrations, included 12 of the 18 ministers from Macron’s ruling centrist Ensemble coalition and the right-wing Les Republicains (LR) party.
- This choice was widely perceived as a continuation rather than a departure from previous governments and policies, despite commitments to opposition to change. This followed Lecornu’s announcement on October 3 that he would rule out invoking Article 49.3 to pass the 2026 budget without a parliamentary vote, opting instead to seek a compromise with opposition parties.
- The cabinet drew strong criticism from most political parties, including LR, the left-wing Parti Socialiste (PS), the far-left La France Insoumise (LFI), and the far-right Rassemblement National (RN). Bruno Retailleau, LR’s President, expressed disappointment, arguing that the government’s composition did not reflect a promised rupture and threatened that LR would leave the cabinet.
- Furthermore, the situation led to threats of motions of censure by PS, RN, and LFI. The PS threatened to support a motion of censure if Lecornu refused to open a new debate on pension reform. Immediately after Lecornu’s resignation, LFI leader Jean-Luc Melenchon called for an impeachment motion against Macron, while RN leader Jordan Bardella called for the dissolution of the Assemblee Nationale.
- In response to the political turmoil, the CAC 40, the main stock market index of the Paris Stock Exchange, fell by 2 percent on October 6.
Source: Le Figaro
Assessments & Forecast
- Lecornu’s departure is likely in response to LR’s threat to withdraw from the newly formed cabinet, as well as PS and RN threatening no-confidence motions against the government. This lack of political maneuver, which led to Lecornu resigning in less than a month, the shortest PM term in French history, is reflective of the increasing political instability in France. Amid frequent departures of PMs and their governments since the June-July 2024 elections, increasing Ensemble’s and Macron’s unpopularity with the public, the potential for opposition parties, such as LR and PS, to cooperate with the government has also seemingly decreased.
- FORECAST: Lecornu’s departure is liable to force Macron into dissolving Assemblee Nationale and triggering a snap parliamentary election if he wants to prevent the continuing crisis, especially with RN and LFI hardening calls for no-confidence motions against any Ensemble-led government. Indeed, a poll from August 27 shows that the majority of the French public, 63 percent, prefer new elections, and the number is likely to rise amid Lecornu’s departure.
- FORECAST: However, alternatively, considering that Ensemble is currently polling at 14 percent in opinion polls, Macron is more likely to attempt to form another government, possibly with concessions to LR. Such concessions will likely need to include a decrease in public spending, continuation of low tax rates, and the absence of left-leaning cabinet ministers to ensure LR’s agreement to join the government. However, such a government is expected to continue facing instability as it will have a parliamentary minority and will have to rely on Article 49.3 to bypass parliament, putting it at risk of no-confidence motions. The potential for an Ensemble-led government to form a ruling coalition with PS, despite recent concessions, is less likely, as it will threaten their pro-business reforms.
- FORECAST: Protests by left-wing and far-right groups and strikes by major unions calling for new elections are likely in the immediate-to-near term and are expected to intensify if Macron decides to form another government instead of dissolving parliament. Groups that were part of the September 10 “Bloquons tout” (“Block Everything”) protest movement are likely to take advantage of the political crisis and attempt to organize similar disruptive and violent nationwide anti-government protests. With the departure of the PM and an ensuing lack of government putting the 2026 budget in limbo, major unions are expected to carry out strikes, including multi-sectoral ones, against the continuation of the 2025 budget and to demand continuation of government financing of public services.
- FORECAST: The economic consequences of the political developments are likely to be severe, as already evidenced by the significant drop in the Paris stock market index. The frequent departure of PMs and governments and their inability to govern durably is expected to further decrease market confidence, leading to capital flight and a decrease in economic growth. Even if Macron calls for a new parliamentary election, the prospect of the next government being led by or including extremist parties, such as RN and LFI, which lead opinion polls, will further downgrade France’s economic and financial credibility.
Recommendations
- Travel to France may continue while maintaining standard safety protocols and remaining cognizant of the ongoing political developments over the coming weeks.
- Avoid nonessential travel in the vicinity of anti-government protests due to the elevated risk for unrest, including sudden violent escalation
- Businesses operating in France are advised to remain cognizant of the authorities’ updates regarding legislation and reforms.
- For more information on the political and security situation, as well as planning for upcoming political developments, please contact [email protected]
COUNTRY RISK LEVEL
Low
AFFECTED AREA
France
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL
High
STRENGTH OF SOURCE
Confirmed
Current Situation
- On October 6, Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu submitted his resignation to President Emmanuel Macron, who accepted it.
- This resignation follows Lecornu’s presentation on October 5 of the composition of his government. The cabinet, largely composed of figures from previous administrations, included 12 of the 18 ministers from Macron’s ruling centrist Ensemble coalition and the right-wing Les Republicains (LR) party.
- This choice was widely perceived as a continuation rather than a departure from previous governments and policies, despite commitments to opposition to change. This followed Lecornu’s announcement on October 3 that he would rule out invoking Article 49.3 to pass the 2026 budget without a parliamentary vote, opting instead to seek a compromise with opposition parties.
- The cabinet drew strong criticism from most political parties, including LR, the left-wing Parti Socialiste (PS), the far-left La France Insoumise (LFI), and the far-right Rassemblement National (RN). Bruno Retailleau, LR’s President, expressed disappointment, arguing that the government’s composition did not reflect a promised rupture and threatened that LR would leave the cabinet.
- Furthermore, the situation led to threats of motions of censure by PS, RN, and LFI. The PS threatened to support a motion of censure if Lecornu refused to open a new debate on pension reform. Immediately after Lecornu’s resignation, LFI leader Jean-Luc Melenchon called for an impeachment motion against Macron, while RN leader Jordan Bardella called for the dissolution of the Assemblee Nationale.
- In response to the political turmoil, the CAC 40, the main stock market index of the Paris Stock Exchange, fell by 2 percent on October 6.
Source: Le Figaro
Assessments & Forecast
- Lecornu’s departure is likely in response to LR’s threat to withdraw from the newly formed cabinet, as well as PS and RN threatening no-confidence motions against the government. This lack of political maneuver, which led to Lecornu resigning in less than a month, the shortest PM term in French history, is reflective of the increasing political instability in France. Amid frequent departures of PMs and their governments since the June-July 2024 elections, increasing Ensemble’s and Macron’s unpopularity with the public, the potential for opposition parties, such as LR and PS, to cooperate with the government has also seemingly decreased.
- FORECAST: Lecornu’s departure is liable to force Macron into dissolving Assemblee Nationale and triggering a snap parliamentary election if he wants to prevent the continuing crisis, especially with RN and LFI hardening calls for no-confidence motions against any Ensemble-led government. Indeed, a poll from August 27 shows that the majority of the French public, 63 percent, prefer new elections, and the number is likely to rise amid Lecornu’s departure.
- FORECAST: However, alternatively, considering that Ensemble is currently polling at 14 percent in opinion polls, Macron is more likely to attempt to form another government, possibly with concessions to LR. Such concessions will likely need to include a decrease in public spending, continuation of low tax rates, and the absence of left-leaning cabinet ministers to ensure LR’s agreement to join the government. However, such a government is expected to continue facing instability as it will have a parliamentary minority and will have to rely on Article 49.3 to bypass parliament, putting it at risk of no-confidence motions. The potential for an Ensemble-led government to form a ruling coalition with PS, despite recent concessions, is less likely, as it will threaten their pro-business reforms.
- FORECAST: Protests by left-wing and far-right groups and strikes by major unions calling for new elections are likely in the immediate-to-near term and are expected to intensify if Macron decides to form another government instead of dissolving parliament. Groups that were part of the September 10 “Bloquons tout” (“Block Everything”) protest movement are likely to take advantage of the political crisis and attempt to organize similar disruptive and violent nationwide anti-government protests. With the departure of the PM and an ensuing lack of government putting the 2026 budget in limbo, major unions are expected to carry out strikes, including multi-sectoral ones, against the continuation of the 2025 budget and to demand continuation of government financing of public services.
- FORECAST: The economic consequences of the political developments are likely to be severe, as already evidenced by the significant drop in the Paris stock market index. The frequent departure of PMs and governments and their inability to govern durably is expected to further decrease market confidence, leading to capital flight and a decrease in economic growth. Even if Macron calls for a new parliamentary election, the prospect of the next government being led by or including extremist parties, such as RN and LFI, which lead opinion polls, will further downgrade France’s economic and financial credibility.
Recommendations
- Travel to France may continue while maintaining standard safety protocols and remaining cognizant of the ongoing political developments over the coming weeks.
- Avoid nonessential travel in the vicinity of anti-government protests due to the elevated risk for unrest, including sudden violent escalation
- Businesses operating in France are advised to remain cognizant of the authorities’ updates regarding legislation and reforms.
- For more information on the political and security situation, as well as planning for upcoming political developments, please contact [email protected]
COUNTRY RISK LEVEL
Low
AFFECTED AREA
France
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL
High
STRENGTH OF SOURCE
Confirmed
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Related Reports
France
-
DevelopingFrance Alert: Security operation ongoing following multiple explosions reported on Rue de Varenne, Paris, as of morning hours (local time) on October 7; avoid nonessential travel
-
CrimeFrance Alert (UPDATE): 18-year-old arrested following stabbing at school in Antibes, Provence-Alpes-Cote d’Azur region on September 10; reiterates elevated threat of violent attacks at educational institutions
-
DevelopingFrance Alert: Security operations ongoing following stabbing at school in Antibes as of afternoon hours (local time) on September 10; maintain heightened vigilance
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DevelopingFrance Alert: Security operations ongoing following stabbing, police shooting on Cours Belsunce in Marseille as of afternoon hours (local time) on September 2; avoid nonessential travel