30
Sep 2024
12:06 UTC
Europe Tactical (UPDATE): Protests related to Israel-Hamas, Israel-Hezbollah conflict to be held in multiple cities regionwide on September 30-October 2; maintain heightened vigilance
Current Situation
- Reports indicate that protests related to the Israel-Hamas conflict, as well as the Israel-Hezbollah escalation, are scheduled in multiple cities across Europe on September 30-October 2.
- In Brussels, Belgium, a protest demanding a ceasefire in Lebanon is slated to take place at Place De Brouckere from 19:00 (local time) on September 30.
Source: Instagram
- In Brussels, Belgium, a protest demanding a ceasefire in Lebanon is slated to take place at Place De Brouckere from 19:00 (local time) on September 30.
Source: Instagram
- In Malmo, Sweden a pro-Palestinian protest is slated to be held at Jagershillgatan 15 from 16:30 on September 30.
Source: Facebook
- In Malmo, Sweden a pro-Palestinian protest is slated to be held at Jagershillgatan 15 from 16:30 on September 30.
Source: Facebook
- In London, UK, the ‘Lewisham and Greenwich Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament’ group has organized a pro-Palestinian rally outside Lewisham Town Hall from 18:30 on October 2.
Source: Twitter
- In London, UK, the ‘Lewisham and Greenwich Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament’ group has organized a pro-Palestinian rally outside Lewisham Town Hall from 18:30 on October 2.
Source: Twitter
Assessments & Forecast
- Based on precedent, the slated protests are likely to witness turnouts ranging from the low hundreds to low thousands each, with the protests in Brussels and London expected to attract the largest turnouts.
- In addition to the planned protests, spontaneous pro-Palestinian protests, as well as demonstrations expressing solidarity with Lebanon, are liable to occur regionwide. If such protests do occur, they are likely to take place near central government buildings, main squares, Israeli and US diplomatic missions, or Jewish community spaces.
- Based on precedent, the aforementioned demonstrations carry a heightened potential for unrest, particularly if they attract counterprotests by pro-Israel groups. Incidents of unrest are likely to manifest in the form of clashes between protesters and the police, as well as with counter-protesters, should additional such demonstrations manifest.
- A bolstered security presence is expected to be deployed near the protest locations to monitor proceedings. In the case of escalating unrest, police are liable to use forcible dispersal methods, including conducting mass arrests.
- Significant disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular movement, including road closures and traffic diversions, should be anticipated near the protest locations.
Recommendations
- Those operating or residing in the aforementioned cities in Europe on September 30 to October 2 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance near protests related to the Israel-Hamas and Israel-Hezbollah conflict due to the elevated potential for unrest.
- Allot for travel-related disruptions in the vicinity of the protest locations.
COUNTRY RISK LEVEL
Low
AFFECTED AREA
Europe
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL
Medium
STRENGTH OF SOURCE
Credible
Current Situation
- Reports indicate that protests related to the Israel-Hamas conflict, as well as the Israel-Hezbollah escalation, are scheduled in multiple cities across Europe on September 30-October 2.
- In Brussels, Belgium, a protest demanding a ceasefire in Lebanon is slated to take place at Place De Brouckere from 19:00 (local time) on September 30.
Source: Instagram
- In Brussels, Belgium, a protest demanding a ceasefire in Lebanon is slated to take place at Place De Brouckere from 19:00 (local time) on September 30.
Source: Instagram
- In Malmo, Sweden a pro-Palestinian protest is slated to be held at Jagershillgatan 15 from 16:30 on September 30.
Source: Facebook
- In Malmo, Sweden a pro-Palestinian protest is slated to be held at Jagershillgatan 15 from 16:30 on September 30.
Source: Facebook
- In London, UK, the ‘Lewisham and Greenwich Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament’ group has organized a pro-Palestinian rally outside Lewisham Town Hall from 18:30 on October 2.
Source: Twitter
- In London, UK, the ‘Lewisham and Greenwich Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament’ group has organized a pro-Palestinian rally outside Lewisham Town Hall from 18:30 on October 2.
Source: Twitter
Assessments & Forecast
- Based on precedent, the slated protests are likely to witness turnouts ranging from the low hundreds to low thousands each, with the protests in Brussels and London expected to attract the largest turnouts.
- In addition to the planned protests, spontaneous pro-Palestinian protests, as well as demonstrations expressing solidarity with Lebanon, are liable to occur regionwide. If such protests do occur, they are likely to take place near central government buildings, main squares, Israeli and US diplomatic missions, or Jewish community spaces.
- Based on precedent, the aforementioned demonstrations carry a heightened potential for unrest, particularly if they attract counterprotests by pro-Israel groups. Incidents of unrest are likely to manifest in the form of clashes between protesters and the police, as well as with counter-protesters, should additional such demonstrations manifest.
- A bolstered security presence is expected to be deployed near the protest locations to monitor proceedings. In the case of escalating unrest, police are liable to use forcible dispersal methods, including conducting mass arrests.
- Significant disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular movement, including road closures and traffic diversions, should be anticipated near the protest locations.
Recommendations
- Those operating or residing in the aforementioned cities in Europe on September 30 to October 2 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance near protests related to the Israel-Hamas and Israel-Hezbollah conflict due to the elevated potential for unrest.
- Allot for travel-related disruptions in the vicinity of the protest locations.