Protest

08
Jan 2025
10:23 UTC

Europe Tactical (UPDATE): Protests related to Israel-Hamas conflict to be held in multiple cities on January 8-10; maintain heightened vigilance

Current Situation

  • Reports indicate that protests related to the Israel-Hamas conflict will take place in several cities regionwide on January 8-10. 
  • In Brussels, Belgium, a pro-Palestinian protest will be held at the Brussels Central Station at 18:00 (local time) on January 8.  
  • Additional protests will be held at the same location on January 9 at 18:00 and January 10 at 17:00. 

Source: Instagram 

  • In Antwerp, Belgium, a pro-Palestinian student sit-in will be held on the Karel de Grote University campus from 12:30 on January 9. The exact campus location of the sit-in is not yet available.  

Source: Instagram 

  • In Berlin, Germany, a pro-Palestinian protest will be held in front of the Tiergarten district court on Turmstrasse 91 from 10:00 on January 10. 
  • The protest is being held to show solidarity with jailed pro-Palestinian activists in Germany and to demand the German government halt arms deliveries to Israel. 

Source: Radar Squat 

  • In Oslo, Norway, a pro-Palestinian protest will be held at Eidsvolls plass from 19:30 on January 8. 
  • The protest is being held to denounce damage to Palestinian education systems by Israeli forces under the term “scholasticide”. 

Source: Facebook 

  • In Linares, Spain, a pro-Palestinian protest march will be held from the Fuente de la Constitution on Paseo de Linarejos to Plaza del Ayuntamiento from 18:30 on January 8. 

Source: Twitter/X 

  • In Edinburgh, UK, a pro-Palestinian protest will be held in front of the Edinburgh Sheriff Court from 09:30 on January 9.  
  • The protest is being held to show solidarity with jailed pro-Palestinian activists in the UK and to demand an arms embargo on Israel. 

Source: Facebook 

  • On January 6, anti-Semitic graffiti was discovered on a bridge in Cagnes-sur-Mer in the Alpes-Maritimes region in France. The perpetrator was arrested and is facing charges of “incitement to hatred.

Source: LeFigaro

  • On the same day, anti-Semitic graffiti was discovered on a synagogue in Rouen, France, including swastikas and calls for violence against Jews.

Source: BFMTV 

Assessments & Forecast

  1. Based on precedent and the mobilizational capabilities of the organizers, the protests are likely to attract turnouts ranging in the low hundreds to low thousands each, with the protests in Antwerp and Berlin likely to attract the largest turnout. 
  2. In addition to the planned protests, spontaneous pro-Palestinian protests are liable to occur regionwide. Such protests are likely to occur near central government buildings, main squares, Israeli and US diplomatic missions, or Jewish community spaces.
  3. Based on precedent, any planned or spontaneous demonstrations carry a heightened potential for unrest, particularly if protests attract counterprotests by pro-Israel, pro-Palestinian, and/or far-right groups.
  4. Additionally, protests with high student involvement have a heightened risk of unrest, as these entities are liable to engage in disruptive tactics, such as blocking transportation or damaging property. As such, the protest on the Karel de Grote University campus in Antwerp poses a heightened risk of clashes with law enforcement, considering the involvement of student groups and the sit-in protest method.
  5. Given this, a bolstered security presence is expected near protest locations to monitor proceedings. In the case of escalating unrest, police are liable to use forcible dispersal methods, including using tear gas or conducting mass arrests.
  6. Significant disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular movement, including road closures, disruptions to public transportation, and traffic diversions, should be anticipated near the protest locations.
  7. Additionally, the anti-Semitic incidents reported in France highlight the persistent threat of conflating Jews with Israel, raising the risk of anti-Semitic incidents related to pro-Palestinian activism, especially in countries with large Jewish populations. FORECAST: Given trends of elevated anti-Semitic incidents in Europe, the threat of such incidents is likely to remain elevated regionwide in the near term. Based on precedent, these incidents are likely to manifest as verbal abuse, vandalism, threats, property damage, and physical assault. Jewish individuals, community centers, and religious institutions will remain vulnerable to such incidents.

Recommendations

  1. Those operating or residing in Europe on January 8-10 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance near protests related to the Israel-Hamas conflict due to the elevated potential for unrest.
  2. Allot for travel-related disruptions in the vicinity of the protest locations.
COUNTRY RISK LEVEL Low
AFFECTED AREA Europe
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL Medium
STRENGTH OF SOURCE Credible

Current Situation

  • Reports indicate that protests related to the Israel-Hamas conflict will take place in several cities regionwide on January 8-10. 
  • In Brussels, Belgium, a pro-Palestinian protest will be held at the Brussels Central Station at 18:00 (local time) on January 8.  
  • Additional protests will be held at the same location on January 9 at 18:00 and January 10 at 17:00. 

Source: Instagram 

  • In Antwerp, Belgium, a pro-Palestinian student sit-in will be held on the Karel de Grote University campus from 12:30 on January 9. The exact campus location of the sit-in is not yet available.  

Source: Instagram 

  • In Berlin, Germany, a pro-Palestinian protest will be held in front of the Tiergarten district court on Turmstrasse 91 from 10:00 on January 10. 
  • The protest is being held to show solidarity with jailed pro-Palestinian activists in Germany and to demand the German government halt arms deliveries to Israel. 

Source: Radar Squat 

  • In Oslo, Norway, a pro-Palestinian protest will be held at Eidsvolls plass from 19:30 on January 8. 
  • The protest is being held to denounce damage to Palestinian education systems by Israeli forces under the term “scholasticide”. 

Source: Facebook 

  • In Linares, Spain, a pro-Palestinian protest march will be held from the Fuente de la Constitution on Paseo de Linarejos to Plaza del Ayuntamiento from 18:30 on January 8. 

Source: Twitter/X 

  • In Edinburgh, UK, a pro-Palestinian protest will be held in front of the Edinburgh Sheriff Court from 09:30 on January 9.  
  • The protest is being held to show solidarity with jailed pro-Palestinian activists in the UK and to demand an arms embargo on Israel. 

Source: Facebook 

  • On January 6, anti-Semitic graffiti was discovered on a bridge in Cagnes-sur-Mer in the Alpes-Maritimes region in France. The perpetrator was arrested and is facing charges of “incitement to hatred.

Source: LeFigaro

  • On the same day, anti-Semitic graffiti was discovered on a synagogue in Rouen, France, including swastikas and calls for violence against Jews.

Source: BFMTV 

Assessments & Forecast

  1. Based on precedent and the mobilizational capabilities of the organizers, the protests are likely to attract turnouts ranging in the low hundreds to low thousands each, with the protests in Antwerp and Berlin likely to attract the largest turnout. 
  2. In addition to the planned protests, spontaneous pro-Palestinian protests are liable to occur regionwide. Such protests are likely to occur near central government buildings, main squares, Israeli and US diplomatic missions, or Jewish community spaces.
  3. Based on precedent, any planned or spontaneous demonstrations carry a heightened potential for unrest, particularly if protests attract counterprotests by pro-Israel, pro-Palestinian, and/or far-right groups.
  4. Additionally, protests with high student involvement have a heightened risk of unrest, as these entities are liable to engage in disruptive tactics, such as blocking transportation or damaging property. As such, the protest on the Karel de Grote University campus in Antwerp poses a heightened risk of clashes with law enforcement, considering the involvement of student groups and the sit-in protest method.
  5. Given this, a bolstered security presence is expected near protest locations to monitor proceedings. In the case of escalating unrest, police are liable to use forcible dispersal methods, including using tear gas or conducting mass arrests.
  6. Significant disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular movement, including road closures, disruptions to public transportation, and traffic diversions, should be anticipated near the protest locations.
  7. Additionally, the anti-Semitic incidents reported in France highlight the persistent threat of conflating Jews with Israel, raising the risk of anti-Semitic incidents related to pro-Palestinian activism, especially in countries with large Jewish populations. FORECAST: Given trends of elevated anti-Semitic incidents in Europe, the threat of such incidents is likely to remain elevated regionwide in the near term. Based on precedent, these incidents are likely to manifest as verbal abuse, vandalism, threats, property damage, and physical assault. Jewish individuals, community centers, and religious institutions will remain vulnerable to such incidents.

Recommendations

  1. Those operating or residing in Europe on January 8-10 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance near protests related to the Israel-Hamas conflict due to the elevated potential for unrest.
  2. Allot for travel-related disruptions in the vicinity of the protest locations.
COUNTRY RISK LEVEL Low
AFFECTED AREA Europe
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL Medium
STRENGTH OF SOURCE Credible