Air Strike

02
Mar 2026
10:42 UTC

Cyprus Alert (UPDATE): UAV strike reported at UK’s RAF base in Akrotiri near Limassol during overnight hours (local time) on March 1-2; risk of further strikes to persist near term

Current Situation

  • During the overnight hours (local time) of March 1–2, an Iranian UAV strike, reportedly involving a Shahed-136 loitering munition, targeted the British Royal Air Force (RAF) airbase at Akrotiri, approximately 15 kilometers from Limassol, Cyprus. The strike resulted in only minor damage. Unverified reports also indicate that British bases intercepted a second UAV as well, though details regarding this development remain unconfirmed as of writing. 
  • Akrotiri base authorities have planned the temporary dispersal of non-essential personnel as a precautionary measure following this incident as of March 2.
  • Meanwhile, on March 2, the UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO) updated its travel advisory for Cyprus, citing heightened regional tensions. The advisory warns that escalation could occur with little notice and may lead to travel disruption, including potential airspace closures and other unforeseen impacts.  
  • British nationals in or travelling to Cyprus are advised to adopt a precautionary approach, assess their personal risk exposure, and remain alert to further developments. Further details can be found here. 

Source: Cyprus Mail 

Assessments & Forecast

  1. The timing of the UAV strike is notable as the attack occurred approximately one hour after UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer confirmed that the UK will permit the US to use British bases in Cyprus to conduct strikes against Iranian targets. This indicates that the attack was likely symbolic, with Tehran attempting to showcase its ability and willingness to carry out attacks on the UK’s military assets in the Mediterranean Sea in retaliation for London’s involvement in the war.   
  2. Indeed, RAF aircraft operating from the base have reportedly been involved in defensive actions against Iranian UAVs, including detection and interception activities.  FORECAST: As such, there is a credible and elevated likelihood of further strikes against UK bases in Cyprus, including Akrotiri and RAF Dhekelia on the southeastern coast of Cyprus. It also raises the threat baseline for UK assets in the eastern Mediterranean, as they remain legitimate targets within Iran’s retaliatory framework.   
  3. FORECAST: In addition to Iran, there remains a latent risk of air strikes against Western military assets in Cyprus from Iranian-backed Hezbollah. The group has previously warned Nicosia, in June 2024, against allowing Israel or its allies to use Cypriot airbases to support operations against its interests. Given that Cyprus lies approximately 300 kilometers from Hezbollah’s strongholds in southern Lebanon, the island falls within range of the group’s longer-range rockets, missiles, and explosive-laden UAVs. That said, despite Hezbollah’s capability and stated intent, the likelihood of such attacks remains limited at present. This is because the group remains primarily focused on Israel, and its operational capacity and weapons stockpiles have reportedly been weakened by sustained Israeli strikes against its leadership and logistics networks throughout 2024–25. Additionally, targeting Cyprus would provide limited strategic benefit while risking broader escalation and international backlash. 
  4. The UAV strike is significant as it marks the first direct Iranian attack against a military asset in an EU territory in decades. As such, it indicates the risk of expansion of the geographic scope of the current war beyond the Gulf and the Levant regions as Tehran escalates its campaign against Israel, the US, and allied interests – including military bases operated by NATO member-countries. FORECAST: Although Tehran possesses missile systems and UAVs capable of reaching parts of NATO assets in southeastern Europe, the risk of strikes on mainland NATO territory remains limited. Such an attack would risk triggering NATO’s collective defence mechanisms and coordinated alliance retaliation, offering limited strategic benefit, particularly amid reported strain on Iran’s missile and drone stockpiles. Iran is therefore more likely to focus on nearby, operationally relevant targets in the Gulf and Eastern Mediterranean rather than expand the conflict into core European NATO territory in the near term.   
  5. FORECAST: Beyond the risk of further aerial attacks in Cyprus, the threat of covert attacks by domestically operating Iran-backed proxies, as well as Iranian-regime sympathizers against establishments of the US, Israel, and its Western allies, such as the UK, France, and Germany, remains elevated. Vulnerable targets include diplomatic establishments, business interests, military facilities, aviation infrastructure, energy assets, tourism sites, community centers, and high-profile individuals linked to US, Israeli, or European interests. Indeed, Iranian-backed proxy actors and aligned sympathizers have repeatedly demonstrated intent to target Israeli and Western targets inside Cyprus. This is evidenced by the June 2025 arrests of an individual who was arrested on suspicion of terror-related offences for an Iran-backed attack plot against two airbases, as well as a series of Tehran-backed attack plots, primarily targeting Israeli entities, in recent years. Notably, in June 2023, Israeli authorities announced the capture of the alleged leader of an Iran-backed cell operating in Cyprus that had been tasked with carrying out assassinations against Israeli-linked targets.  

Recommendations

  1. Travel to Cyprus may continue; however, travelers and organizations should closely monitor developments and reassess their risk exposure in light of recent Iranian strikes against UK military assets, particularly in southern areas near British sovereign bases. 
  2. Given the elevated threat environment, individuals operating or residing in Cyprus should maintain heightened vigilance for potential further Iranian aerial activity targeting British or allied military installations.  
  3. Maintain heightened vigilance for an increased risk of deniable or proxy-linked activity directed at Israeli or Western-affiliated diplomatic, commercial, or community interests. 
  4. Alert authorities of suspicious behavior or individuals.   
  5. Increased awareness of an organization’s political footprint and perceptions from fringe online groups can help uncover potential violent actors and plots before they occur.  
  6. For further questions and risk assessments, please contact [email protected].
COUNTRY RISK LEVEL Low
AFFECTED AREA Akrotiri, Cyprus
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL Medium
STRENGTH OF SOURCE Confirmed

Current Situation

  • During the overnight hours (local time) of March 1–2, an Iranian UAV strike, reportedly involving a Shahed-136 loitering munition, targeted the British Royal Air Force (RAF) airbase at Akrotiri, approximately 15 kilometers from Limassol, Cyprus. The strike resulted in only minor damage. Unverified reports also indicate that British bases intercepted a second UAV as well, though details regarding this development remain unconfirmed as of writing. 
  • Akrotiri base authorities have planned the temporary dispersal of non-essential personnel as a precautionary measure following this incident as of March 2.
  • Meanwhile, on March 2, the UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO) updated its travel advisory for Cyprus, citing heightened regional tensions. The advisory warns that escalation could occur with little notice and may lead to travel disruption, including potential airspace closures and other unforeseen impacts.  
  • British nationals in or travelling to Cyprus are advised to adopt a precautionary approach, assess their personal risk exposure, and remain alert to further developments. Further details can be found here. 

Source: Cyprus Mail 

Assessments & Forecast

  1. The timing of the UAV strike is notable as the attack occurred approximately one hour after UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer confirmed that the UK will permit the US to use British bases in Cyprus to conduct strikes against Iranian targets. This indicates that the attack was likely symbolic, with Tehran attempting to showcase its ability and willingness to carry out attacks on the UK’s military assets in the Mediterranean Sea in retaliation for London’s involvement in the war.   
  2. Indeed, RAF aircraft operating from the base have reportedly been involved in defensive actions against Iranian UAVs, including detection and interception activities.  FORECAST: As such, there is a credible and elevated likelihood of further strikes against UK bases in Cyprus, including Akrotiri and RAF Dhekelia on the southeastern coast of Cyprus. It also raises the threat baseline for UK assets in the eastern Mediterranean, as they remain legitimate targets within Iran’s retaliatory framework.   
  3. FORECAST: In addition to Iran, there remains a latent risk of air strikes against Western military assets in Cyprus from Iranian-backed Hezbollah. The group has previously warned Nicosia, in June 2024, against allowing Israel or its allies to use Cypriot airbases to support operations against its interests. Given that Cyprus lies approximately 300 kilometers from Hezbollah’s strongholds in southern Lebanon, the island falls within range of the group’s longer-range rockets, missiles, and explosive-laden UAVs. That said, despite Hezbollah’s capability and stated intent, the likelihood of such attacks remains limited at present. This is because the group remains primarily focused on Israel, and its operational capacity and weapons stockpiles have reportedly been weakened by sustained Israeli strikes against its leadership and logistics networks throughout 2024–25. Additionally, targeting Cyprus would provide limited strategic benefit while risking broader escalation and international backlash. 
  4. The UAV strike is significant as it marks the first direct Iranian attack against a military asset in an EU territory in decades. As such, it indicates the risk of expansion of the geographic scope of the current war beyond the Gulf and the Levant regions as Tehran escalates its campaign against Israel, the US, and allied interests – including military bases operated by NATO member-countries. FORECAST: Although Tehran possesses missile systems and UAVs capable of reaching parts of NATO assets in southeastern Europe, the risk of strikes on mainland NATO territory remains limited. Such an attack would risk triggering NATO’s collective defence mechanisms and coordinated alliance retaliation, offering limited strategic benefit, particularly amid reported strain on Iran’s missile and drone stockpiles. Iran is therefore more likely to focus on nearby, operationally relevant targets in the Gulf and Eastern Mediterranean rather than expand the conflict into core European NATO territory in the near term.   
  5. FORECAST: Beyond the risk of further aerial attacks in Cyprus, the threat of covert attacks by domestically operating Iran-backed proxies, as well as Iranian-regime sympathizers against establishments of the US, Israel, and its Western allies, such as the UK, France, and Germany, remains elevated. Vulnerable targets include diplomatic establishments, business interests, military facilities, aviation infrastructure, energy assets, tourism sites, community centers, and high-profile individuals linked to US, Israeli, or European interests. Indeed, Iranian-backed proxy actors and aligned sympathizers have repeatedly demonstrated intent to target Israeli and Western targets inside Cyprus. This is evidenced by the June 2025 arrests of an individual who was arrested on suspicion of terror-related offences for an Iran-backed attack plot against two airbases, as well as a series of Tehran-backed attack plots, primarily targeting Israeli entities, in recent years. Notably, in June 2023, Israeli authorities announced the capture of the alleged leader of an Iran-backed cell operating in Cyprus that had been tasked with carrying out assassinations against Israeli-linked targets.  

Recommendations

  1. Travel to Cyprus may continue; however, travelers and organizations should closely monitor developments and reassess their risk exposure in light of recent Iranian strikes against UK military assets, particularly in southern areas near British sovereign bases. 
  2. Given the elevated threat environment, individuals operating or residing in Cyprus should maintain heightened vigilance for potential further Iranian aerial activity targeting British or allied military installations.  
  3. Maintain heightened vigilance for an increased risk of deniable or proxy-linked activity directed at Israeli or Western-affiliated diplomatic, commercial, or community interests. 
  4. Alert authorities of suspicious behavior or individuals.   
  5. Increased awareness of an organization’s political footprint and perceptions from fringe online groups can help uncover potential violent actors and plots before they occur.  
  6. For further questions and risk assessments, please contact [email protected].
COUNTRY RISK LEVEL Low
AFFECTED AREA Akrotiri, Cyprus
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL Medium
STRENGTH OF SOURCE Confirmed

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