• Multiple left-wing organizations, including trade unions, NGOs, and political parties, such as the ruling Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT) have called for a demonstration at the Praca dos Tres Poderes, in Brasilia, DF, at 11:00 (local time) on January 8.   
• The event is being organized to commemorate the two-year anniversary of the riots carried out by thousands of supporters of former President Jair Bolsonaro on January 8, 2023, who stormed the National Congress, Presidential Palace, and Supreme Court in Brasilia. The rioters claimed that the 2022 elections were fraudulent and therefore sought to overthrow the elected government on the day.  
• The demonstration will be attended by President Lula da Silva, officials from the legislative and judicial branches, as well as heads of the Forcas Armadas Brasileiras, the Armed Forces, comprising of the army, navy, and air force. 
• In addition, prominent organizations such as Ordem dos Advogados do Brasil (OAB), Central Unica dos Trabalhadores (CUT), and Conferencia Nacional dos Bispos do Brasil (CNBB) will also participate in the event.  

1. The upcoming demonstration follows a series of legal actions implicating Bolsonaro and multiple other “coup-plotters”, between October-December 2024. This includes the Federal Police formally accusing Bolsonaro and 36 others, in November 2024, of attempting a coup to keep him in power after his electoral loss. In addition, on December 14, 2024, Walter Braga Netto, Bolsonaro’s 2022 running mate, former Chief of Staff, and a retired army general, was arrested. Braga Netto is considered a prominent figure in the alleged coup plot. 
2. The January 8 rally is also notable in the fact that it will be joined by the Brazilian Army, previously seen as a pro-Bolsonaro institution. The event also precedes the Supreme Federal Court’s anticipated decision on whether to try Bolsonaro for the January 8, 2023, riots, with reports suggesting a majority of five out of seven judges may hold him accountable. The trial date remains unconfirmed. 
3. In addition, during the first anniversary of the incident in 2024, left-wing groups, including the PT, held rallies in major cities nationwide, including Belo Horizonte, MG, Rio de Janeiro city, RJ, and Sao Paulo city, SP. All the events transpired peacefully, drawing an attendance ranging in the mid-to-high hundreds each. 
4. FORECAST: Based on the organizing group’s mobilizational capabilities and given the 2024 precedent, the upcoming rally in Brasilia will likely witness a high turnout in the mid-to-high thousands. In addition, due to the symbolic significance of January 8 for left-wing groups, spontaneous protests in other major cities, such as Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, are likely during the day, with turnouts expected to be in the low-to-mid hundreds at each location. 
5. FORECAST: Judging by past anti-Bolsonaro protest activity, including the most recent ones reported on December 10 in at least 40 cities nationwide, including Brasilia, the slated protest is likely to transpire peacefully, without any major instances of unrest. However, counter-protests led by Bolsonaro supporters in the vicinity of the scheduled event cannot be ruled out, although the likelihood is low. Should this occur, localized scuffles between demonstrating groups are liable. Given this, coupled with the fact that several high-profile leaders will attend the rally, a bolstered security presence can be expected. Consequently, the preemptive police reinforcement is likely to contain scuffles, preventing any notable escalations. In addition, significant disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular traffic can be anticipated near Praca dos Tres Poderes from the morning hours on January 8.   

Those operating or residing in Brasilia on January 8 are advised to allot for disruptions to travel in the vicinity of the slated protest in Praca dos Tres Poderes from the morning hours onwards.