22
Jan 2025
10:42 UTC
Bolivia Tactical: Supporters of Arce, Morales to organize two separate events in La Paz, Cochabamba commemorating Plurinational State Foundation Day on January 22; maintain heightened vigilance
Current Situation
- Reports indicate that supporters of both President Luis Arce and former President Evo Morales will be organizing two separate events to commemorate the annual Plurinational State Foundation Day of Bolivia on January 22.
- Accordingly, supporters of President Arce are slated to hold a government-organized rally at Plaza Murillo in La Paz at an unspecified time. According to reports, this gathering is expected to predominantly see the attendance of official workers of the Arce administration.
Source: Eju
- Accordingly, supporters of President Arce are slated to hold a government-organized rally at Plaza Murillo in La Paz at an unspecified time. According to reports, this gathering is expected to predominantly see the attendance of official workers of the Arce administration.
Source: Eju
- Separately, supporters of Morales have planned to commemorate the day by congregating at La Coronilla stadium in Cochabamba city at 10:00 (local time).
- Separately, supporters of Morales have planned to commemorate the day by congregating at La Coronilla stadium in Cochabamba city at 10:00 (local time).
Assessments & Forecast
- The Plurinational State Foundation Day of Bolivia in 2024 was a largely peaceful event, characterized by celebratory parades, gathering a combined turnout in high hundreds to low thousands in La Paz. Regardless, the celebrations in 2025 coincide with increasing intra-party tensions over leadership positions in the ruling Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) party between Arce and Morales. Additionally, the slated events coincide with the pro-Morales groups’ deadline of January 22 to the government to address alleged economic crisis in Bolivia and the political persecution of Morales.
- FORECAST: With the event being a nationwide celebratory day, and precedent of turnout during previous editions, the slated government-led gathering in La Paz is expected to draw a turnout in the low thousands. However, with reports indicating that routes around Plaza Murillo were closed as a security measure against pro-Morales gatherings from January 13-21, coupled with the deadline offered to the government, the potential for ad-hoc disruptive anti-government protests in the vicinity of Plaza Murillo on January 22 remains heightened. In such a scenario, localized clashes between supporters of Morales and Arce and security forces remain plausible. In case of any indications of unrest, security personnel are likely to use tear gas, as seen in La Paz on January 13 after clashes between Morales’s supporters and police. Consequently, security measures, potentially manifesting as troop deployment and road closures, are anticipated to be bolstered around Plaza Murillo for the slated event, which could result in localized disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular traffic.
- FORECAST: Separately, the gathering of Morales’s supporters (evistas) in La Coronilla stadium in Cochabamba is likely to be a largely peaceful event. This is assessed based on Cochabamba being a political stronghold for Morales and the slated event being planned in an indoor venue. Further, a precedent of lack of notable Arce-led counter-protests in Cochabamba indicates that the potential for similar events in the vicinity of the La Coronilla stadium remains unlikely. Further, given the mobilization capability of Evistas, the slated event in Cochabamba is expected to see a turnout in the low tens-of-thousands. Routine security arrangements can be anticipated in the vicinity to manage traffic.
- FORECAST: Regardless of authority’s having ratified a resolution prohibiting Evistas from organizing road blockades on January 18, spontaneous protest actions in the form of road blockades and mobilizations on highways, particularly in Cochabamba, remain plausible on January 22 and over the coming days amid heightened political tensions.
Recommendations
- Those operating or residing in La Paz on January 22 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance near Plaza Murillo due to the potential for unrest.
- Allot for travel disruptions in the vicinity of both events, including near La Coronilla stadium in Cochabamba.
COUNTRY RISK LEVEL
Medium
AFFECTED AREA
La Paz, Cochabamba, Bolivia
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL
Medium
STRENGTH OF SOURCE
Credible
Current Situation
- Reports indicate that supporters of both President Luis Arce and former President Evo Morales will be organizing two separate events to commemorate the annual Plurinational State Foundation Day of Bolivia on January 22.
- Accordingly, supporters of President Arce are slated to hold a government-organized rally at Plaza Murillo in La Paz at an unspecified time. According to reports, this gathering is expected to predominantly see the attendance of official workers of the Arce administration.
Source: Eju
- Accordingly, supporters of President Arce are slated to hold a government-organized rally at Plaza Murillo in La Paz at an unspecified time. According to reports, this gathering is expected to predominantly see the attendance of official workers of the Arce administration.
Source: Eju
- Separately, supporters of Morales have planned to commemorate the day by congregating at La Coronilla stadium in Cochabamba city at 10:00 (local time).
- Separately, supporters of Morales have planned to commemorate the day by congregating at La Coronilla stadium in Cochabamba city at 10:00 (local time).
Assessments & Forecast
- The Plurinational State Foundation Day of Bolivia in 2024 was a largely peaceful event, characterized by celebratory parades, gathering a combined turnout in high hundreds to low thousands in La Paz. Regardless, the celebrations in 2025 coincide with increasing intra-party tensions over leadership positions in the ruling Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) party between Arce and Morales. Additionally, the slated events coincide with the pro-Morales groups’ deadline of January 22 to the government to address alleged economic crisis in Bolivia and the political persecution of Morales.
- FORECAST: With the event being a nationwide celebratory day, and precedent of turnout during previous editions, the slated government-led gathering in La Paz is expected to draw a turnout in the low thousands. However, with reports indicating that routes around Plaza Murillo were closed as a security measure against pro-Morales gatherings from January 13-21, coupled with the deadline offered to the government, the potential for ad-hoc disruptive anti-government protests in the vicinity of Plaza Murillo on January 22 remains heightened. In such a scenario, localized clashes between supporters of Morales and Arce and security forces remain plausible. In case of any indications of unrest, security personnel are likely to use tear gas, as seen in La Paz on January 13 after clashes between Morales’s supporters and police. Consequently, security measures, potentially manifesting as troop deployment and road closures, are anticipated to be bolstered around Plaza Murillo for the slated event, which could result in localized disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular traffic.
- FORECAST: Separately, the gathering of Morales’s supporters (evistas) in La Coronilla stadium in Cochabamba is likely to be a largely peaceful event. This is assessed based on Cochabamba being a political stronghold for Morales and the slated event being planned in an indoor venue. Further, a precedent of lack of notable Arce-led counter-protests in Cochabamba indicates that the potential for similar events in the vicinity of the La Coronilla stadium remains unlikely. Further, given the mobilization capability of Evistas, the slated event in Cochabamba is expected to see a turnout in the low tens-of-thousands. Routine security arrangements can be anticipated in the vicinity to manage traffic.
- FORECAST: Regardless of authority’s having ratified a resolution prohibiting Evistas from organizing road blockades on January 18, spontaneous protest actions in the form of road blockades and mobilizations on highways, particularly in Cochabamba, remain plausible on January 22 and over the coming days amid heightened political tensions.
Recommendations
- Those operating or residing in La Paz on January 22 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance near Plaza Murillo due to the potential for unrest.
- Allot for travel disruptions in the vicinity of both events, including near La Coronilla stadium in Cochabamba.
COUNTRY RISK LEVEL
Medium
AFFECTED AREA
La Paz, Cochabamba, Bolivia
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL
Medium
STRENGTH OF SOURCE
Credible
Related Reports
Bolivia
-
Labor ActionBolivia Tactical: Unionized workers, activists to hold 24-hour nationwide strike against General State Budget (PGE) on February 10; maintain heightened vigilance -
Labor ActionBolivia Tactical: Indefinite strike by transportation unions ongoing in Santa Cruz as of February 5; maintain heightened vigilance
-
ProtestUSA Tactical: Anti-Trump protests by ‘50501 movement’ slated to be held at State Capitols nationwide on February 5; maintain heightened vigilance -
ProtestBolivia Tactical: CTB workers’ union calls for protest march denouncing General State Budget (PGE) to Plaza Murillo in La Paz from 09:00 (local time) on January 13; maintain heightened vigilance
Related Reports
Bolivia
-
Labor ActionBolivia Tactical: Unionized workers, activists to hold 24-hour nationwide strike against General State Budget (PGE) on February 10; maintain heightened vigilance
-
Labor ActionBolivia Tactical: Indefinite strike by transportation unions ongoing in Santa Cruz as of February 5; maintain heightened vigilance
-
ProtestUSA Tactical: Anti-Trump protests by ‘50501 movement’ slated to be held at State Capitols nationwide on February 5; maintain heightened vigilance
-
ProtestBolivia Tactical: CTB workers’ union calls for protest march denouncing General State Budget (PGE) to Plaza Murillo in La Paz from 09:00 (local time) on January 13; maintain heightened vigilance