Current Situation: 

• On October 10, departmental Prosecutor’s Office in Tarija began preparing an arrest warrant for statutory rape for former president and Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) leader, Evo Morales, after he failed to appear at a legal proceeding to give his testimony on October 10. 
• In response, supporters of Morales (Evistas) called for indefinite road blockades nationwide starting from October 14. 
• Maria Nela Prada, Minister of the Bolivian Presidency, invited Morales for a dialogue intended to suspend the blockades, which Morales rejected.
• As per October 14 reports, Evistas blocked the roads connecting Cochabamba to Santa Cruz and Chuquisaca. Security forces arrested around 20 protesters from a blockade point in Parotani along the Cochabamba-Santa Cruz highway. 

Assessments & Forecast: The arrest warrant comes amid an ongoing political crisis comprising a dispute between incumbent President Luis Arce and Morales over the leadership and presidential nomination for 2025 of the ruling MAS party. Accordingly, Morales and Evista factions are likely to portray the investigation and legal proceedings as Arce’s attempt to suppress his political rival and curb Evista opposition to his government. As tensions within MAS escalate, the ongoing road blockades are expected to persist in the coming days. While no counter-protests by pro-Arce groups were reported on October 14, they cannot be ruled out going forward. Clashes with security forces also remain likely, particularly should Evista protesters try to resist arrests. These blockades are also likely to disrupt supply chains, affecting the delivery of essential items such as agricultural produce, fuel, and medicines. 

Current Situation: 

• On October 14, Ottawa expelled six Indian diplomats, including the High Commissioner after Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RMP) reports revealed evidence of violent criminal activity and homicides linked to the Indian government, impacting the South Asian community in Canada.
• In response, the Indian Ministry of External Affairs announced the expulsion of six Canadian diplomats, including the Acting High Commissioner.
• Canadian Prime Minister said on October 14 that “the government of India made a fundamental error in thinking that they could engage in supporting criminal activity against Canadians here on Canadian soil”. 

Assessments & Forecast: The diplomatic dispute reflects a significant escalation in bilateral tensions following the June 2023 homicide of a pro-Khalistan Sikh separatist, Hardeep Singh Nijjar, in Vancouver, which Canadian authorities later linked to six Indian officials. The latest development stems from the October 14 RCMP statement that links Indian officials to over a dozen credible threats of life and illegal collection of information against members of the South Asian community, specifically the pro-Khalistan movement, in Canada. Given the precedent of diplomatic tensions witnessed in September 2023 following Nijjar’s homicide, there remains a possibility of temporary suspension of visa and consular services in diplomatic missions of both countries over the coming days. Meanwhile, visa processing delays can be expected, as also witnessed amid tensions between the two countries in September 2023. Moreover, amid the escalated tensions, negotiations over the Foreign Investment Promotion Protection Agreement and Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, regarding Canadian investments in India, will remain stalled in the medium term. 

Current Situation:  

• On October 12, Estado Mayor Central-Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (EMC-FARC) led by ‘Ivan Mordisco’ urged delegates to abstain from attending the UN-led COP16 Summit to be held in Cali from October 21-November 1.
• In response, authorities have reportedly intensified security measures, including the deployment of military and police personnel to safeguard the event.   

Assessments & Forecast: This is notable, given that on October 9, Mordisco had temporary suspended offensive actions from October 11-November 6. The latest statement was likely triggered by a military operation aimed to regain control of Cauca’s El Plateado and capture EMC-FARC dissidents that resulted in clashes on October 12. However, the likelihood of the EMC-FARC orchestrating targeted attacks in Cali ahead of COP16 or during the summit remains limited, with the statement likely being intimidatory in nature for bargaining tactics amid the military operation. This mirrors a similar threat issued against COP16 in July, which was withdrawn in August. Moreover, it is likely that increased government security and international attention during COP16 will likely deter Mordisco or other EMC-FARC factions from committing offensives, as attacks on such a high-profile event could result in immediate dismantling of the groups. The risk of major escalatory attacks remains low in major urban centers like Cali. However, given the strongholds of EMC-FARC in rural and semi-urban areas of Valle del Cauca Department, the group may continue to assert influence. These will mostly manifest as confrontations with the security forces in the rural areas including in Dagua, Jamundi, and Robles.  

Current Situation: 

• The Martinique prefect announced an islandwide nightly curfew on October 14 at 21:00-05:00 (local time) to be in effect until October 21.  
• Meanwhile, the seventh-round table between the government and activists slated for October 15 was postponed.
• On October 12, Francois-Noel Buffet, Minister to the Prime Minister for Overseas Territories, announced that the government is expecting a 15-20 percent reduction in food prices. 

Assessments & Forecast: These developments come amid recurring violent protests against the high cost of living, which have been ongoing since September. Given that Buffet has not announced a timeline for implementing price reductions, combined with the postponement of the seventh round of negotiations, the protests are unlikely to subside in the coming days. Based on the persistent turnout of related protests, potential upcoming protests will likely witness varying turnouts ranging from high dozens to mid-hundreds each and are likely to be staged in Fort-de-France, Sainte-Therese, Texaco, and Dillon, and in Le Lamentin, Riviere-Salee, Case-Pilote, Le Francois, and Trinite communes. That said, the potential for clashes between protesters and the police will likely increase amid heightened frustration with the death of one individual and injury of 26 police officers already recorded on October 10-11. Gunfire, looting, and arson attacks remain highly likely, near ports, airports, and highways, which are seen as key targets due to their role in transporting imported goods. Overall, disruptions to business operations and essential services, especially near protest locations, can be expected to continue in the near term.  

Current Situation:  

• Between October 12-13, 15 individuals were shot dead across Culiacan, Sinaloa in separate incidents. Multiple instances of looting of stores and robberies were also reported.
• This comes after Culiacan registered 155 homicides in September, prompting authorities to deploy security personnel totaling 1,050 since September 21 to date. These officers have been assigned to patrol duties throughout Culiacan. 

Assessments & Forecast: The incidents in Culiacan highlight the intensifying turf war between factions of the Cartel de Sinaloa (CDS), Los Chapitos and La Mayiza, since the arrest of then-leader Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada on July 25. Given that cartel-driven violence continues despite federal security reinforcements, manifesting as recurrent murders, lootings, and extortions, it illustrates the authorities’ inadequacy in containing large-scale violence in Culiacan. As intra-CDS violence continues to escalate, it will likely spread to neighboring states as factions attempt to target rival factions or their allies. This is evidenced by Los Chapitos installing narcomantas threatening Los Cabrera, a La Maziya-allied cell, active in Durango and Zacatecas, in Culiacan on October 3. Meanwhile, other rival cartels, especially the Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion (CJNG) will likely capitalize on the CDS’ in-fighting and attempt to gain control of peripheral areas in other states with large CDS presence such as Campeche, Coahuila, Durango, and parts of Sinaloa. This is evidenced by videos circulating on social media showing CJNG members entering Durango, per October 8 reports. Hence, the risk of inter-cartel turf wars, threats to local businessmen, and robberies will remain high in the aforementioned states going forward. 

Current Situation: 

• On October 12, a self-proclaimed Trump supporter, Vem Miller, was arrested for illegally possessing a shotgun, loaded handgun, and high-capacity magazine while attempting to enter former President Donald Trump’s rally in Coachella, CA.
• As per October 10 reports, a Democratic National Committee campaign office in Tempe, AZ, was shot at on October 6. The incident was the third shooting on the office in recent weeks. The motive or details about the suspect remain unconfirmed. 

Assessments & Forecast: Given federal authorities’ statements and preliminary indications of Miller’s political alignment, he is unlikely to have intended to carry out an attack targeting either Trump or attendees at the rally. Miller’s possession of firearms can be explained by suspected affiliation with Sovereign Citizens anti-government movement which is a loosely organized extremist network with roots in far-right views. Anti-government militia groups and their sympathizers are known for showing up armed at public gatherings, including political rallies, as a symbolic demonstration of exercising the Second Amendment. That said, the arrest underscores enhanced security preparedness at political rallies by high-profile politicians during the ongoing electoral period given the underlying risk of politically motivated security incidents. This particularly follows the two attempted assassination attempts against Trump, on July 13 in Butler, PA  and on September 15 in West Palm Beach, FL. Nonetheless, with polarization and rhetoric increasing across the political spectrum over different issues, the likelihood of politically motivated lone actor shootings targeting campaign rallies, top politicians, party offices, voting centers, or government buildings will increase in the coming weeks.