Current Situation: 

• Suspects aboard trucks shot at a vehicle carrying former President Evo Morales on Ruta Nacional 4 near Villa Tunari in Cochabamba department on October 27.
• Following this incident, demonstrators entered a military barracks in Villa Tunari and burned vehicles allegedly used by the suspects.
• Additionally, a group of 200 Evistas, supporters of Morales, illegally entered Aeropuerto Chimore (CCA) in Cochabamba and took over the runway and terminal. After the incident, the number of Evista-led blockades nationwide increased from 16 to 22.
• As of October 30, 23 blockades are recorded in Cochabamba, Potosi, and Oruro, with the majority recorded in Cochabamba. 

Assessments & Forecast: The incident comes amid heightened political tensions stemming from rivalry between Morales and incumbent President Luis Arce, both competing for the ruling Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) party’s presidential nomination in the 2025 elections. Moreover, the incident followed an ongoing and prolonged period of protest activity, with Evistas having installed 10 – 20 blockades on major highways each day to protest legal proceedings against Morales and to demand a solution to the country’s persistent economic crisis. Given the acutely negative economic effects, there has been a rise in public sentiment against the disruptive protest actions. To this end, there is a possibility that civic anti-Morales groups, such as the Resistencia Juvenil Cochala (RJC) carried out the assassination attempt. With Moales blaming the government for the assassination attempt, tensions between Evistas and Arcistas are expected to remain heightened, prompting recurring roadblocks and demonstrations in El Alto or La Paz over the coming days. 

Current Situation: 

• According to reports, the public electricity utility company Empresa Electrica de la Habana announced scheduled power outages in Havana from 10:00-14:00 (local time), effective from October 28-November 3.
• The power cuts will be enforced on a rotation basis across Havana. Further, the company announced that in case of an emergency shutdown of the generating plants, a 12-hour blackout could be implemented.
• The scheduled outages follow the nationwide outage due to the collapse of the Antonio Guiteras power grid on October 18. 

Assessments & Forecast: Up to 35 percent of nationwide outages are expected until November, after PM Manuel Marrero Cruz announced an “energy contingency” plan October 24. This reflects the authorities’ inability to effectively respond to the deepening energy crisis since August. This can be buttressed by crude oil shortages, ineffective management after Hurricane Oscar, and recurrent service failures at key power plants like Antonio Guiteras, Mariel, and Cienfuegos. Based on precedent, spontaneous small-scale demonstrations can be expected in the areas most impacted by recurrent outages like Havana and towns in western Cuba. Such protests carry a credible risk of unrest in the form of public vandalism and arrests of protesters by police. Further, the economy, which contracted by 1.9 percent in 2023, is expected to decline further in 2024 due to persistent blackouts and energy shortages. With a current power generation capacity of 2,060 MW against a demand of 3,050 MW, the deficit will continue to result in extended outages, affecting essential services like healthcare and transportation, compounding the economic strain. 

Current Situation:  

• October 23 reports citing the Police Nationale d’Haiti (PNH) stated that security operations targeting criminal gangs were conducted in Solino, Port-au-Prince (PauP); Arcahaie, Ouest; and Saint-Marc, Artibonite.
• As per October 26 reports, the Viv Ansanm gang coalition attacked the Solino neighborhood, setting fire to multiple homes.  

Assessment & Forecast: Viv Ansanm’s recent attack indicates that underfunding and inadequate training continue to pose logistical and financial challenges for the PNH, limiting the effectiveness of their operations in Ouest, PauP, and Artibonite. Furthermore, Viv Ansanm’s attack aligns with its apparent strategy to bring Solino, one of the last neighborhoods under police control in PauP, into gang-dominated territory. This follows an October 18 confrontation involving clashes with police in Solino, during which Viv Ansanm launched arson attacks on residential buildings, resulting in one death. With gangs reportedly controlling approximately 80 percent of Port-au-Prince, further expansion by Viv Ansanm is expected. This would include targeting both MSS and PNH security personnel and residential buildings in targeted shootings and arson. To this end, the recent Viv Ansanm-led attacks reflect the strengthening of a united front amid security operations after the coalition’s formation in September 2023 following a truce between two main PauP-based gangs – G9 and GPep. This has likely lowered the intensity of gang rivalries. With the UN extending mandate for the Multinational Security Support Mission until October 2025, the anticipated intensified security operations will increase retaliatory gang activity in the near-to-medium term. Hence, the security situation across Haiti, particularly PauP and outskirts, is likely to remain critical.  

Current Situation: 

• On October 27, presidential and legislative elections were held nationwide along with the referendum for social and security reforms.
• Presidential contenders, Yamandu Orsi for the Frente Amplio (FA), center-left party secured 43.8 percent support. While Alvaro Delgado, for the Partido Nacional (PN), center right current ruling party secured 26.9 percent votes. Orsi and Delgado will contest in the presidential runoff election on November 24.
• Meanwhile, the social security referendum on pensions was rejected with 39 percent votes in its favor. The security reform referendum on night-time raids also failed with less than 40 percent support.  

Assessments & Forecast: While the results highlight the FA is leading over the governing “Coalicion Multicolor” five party coalition, the decision for the left coalition or continuity of PN will be a closely contested in the presidential runoff. Orsi’s lead may indicate a public favorability towards FA’s policies, which oversaw significant economic growth and progressive social reforms during its previous time in power. However, Delgado’s share of the vote also underscores the appeal of continuity with the current government’s business-friendly policies under President Luis Lacalle Pou, who has a 50 percent approval rating. Despite the failure of the referendum, the significant voter turnout for the referendums, over 70 percent, indicates a growing demand for the reforms. Given the overall political situation, the runoff is also expected to be a close contest. Both Orsi and Delgado will seek to consolidate their support base and look to form political alliances to strengthen their respective chances in the runoff election.  

Current Situation: 

• On October 28, two arson incidents occurred in Vancouver, WA, and Portland, OR, where incendiary devices destroyed “hundreds” and three ballots, respectively.
• As per October 29 reports, investigators discovered “Free Gaza” and “Free Palestine” messages near the destroyed ballot boxes. Further, an identical vehicle was seen in both crime scenes.
• Authorities are also examining an earlier arson attempt from October 8 in Vancouver, which did not result in any damaged ballots. 

Assessments & Forecast: Regardless of the motive, the latest incidents highlight the risk of ballot tampering and destruction posed to mail-in ballots ahead of the November 5 presidential election, possibly to disrupt electoral processes. With October 17 Department of Homeland Security (DHS) reports indicating that an unnamed group was seeking to crowdsource information on “incendiary and explosive materials” to damage ballot boxes and destroy ballots, the incident could have been potentially conducted by domestic extremist groups. To this end, extremist elements with spectrum-wide inclinations, including not only pro-Palestinian elements but also far-right conspiracy theorists, are expected to continue such incidents, driven by the rhetoric of ‘stolen elections’, as also witnessed during the 2020 elections. On that note, copy-cat attacks against ballot boxes are expected to recur ahead of elections, particularly in states allowing all-mail elections, such as California, Colorado, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Vermont, Washington state, and Washington, DC, alongside swing states. Hence, authorities are expected to adopt protective measures, including overnight monitoring, bolstered police presence near drop box locations, and frequent collection of ballots to minimize potential damage. 

Current Situation: 

• Several reports from October 26-27 indicate that alleged Chinese-affiliated Advance Persistent Threats (APTs) have compromised phones used by candidates of both the Republican and Democratic parties. The hackers reportedly obtained audio of phone calls from an unnamed Republican campaign consultant.
• The Salt Typhoon APT was listed as responsible for these attacks. The group is dedicated exclusively to intelligence collection and is allegedly backed by Beijing. The scope of the breach remains unclear, as of writing.  

Assessments & Forecast: This development underscores the persistent attempts by foreign actors to steal sensitive information about the US election campaign, as anticipated in the latest Homeland Threat Assessment 2025 report from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). With this, the ongoing attempts by Chinese-backed APTs to breach telecommunications companies’ security and eventually gain access to sensitive metadata will endure the risk of Beijing implementing sophisticated cyber influence campaigns. The hacking against high-level Republican and Democratic members is notable due to the shift in the focus of these cyberattacks, as Beijing-linked attacks usually tend to be directed against members of Congress, perceived to be advocating policies contrary to China’s interests. China-backed actors have recently seemed to intensify information-gathering operations on both Republican and Democrats high-level members. That said, this could exacerbate US-China bilateral trade tensions, further buttressed by the US imposition of sanctions on China this year amid allegations of cyber-espionage campaigns that compromised data on people and government institutions.