Travel

16
Sep 2025
13:45 UTC

Germany Tactical: Oktoberfest scheduled to be held in Munich from September 20 to October 5; maintain heightened vigilance

Current Situation

  • The 190th Oktoberfest is scheduled to take place at Theresienwiese in Munich from September 20 to October 5. The festival will start from 09:00 (local time) on weekends and 10:00 on weekdays.
  • The festivities will begin with a parade of the Oktoberfest landlords and breweries at 10:30 on September 20. The procession will begin from Josephspitalstrasse and proceed towards eastern Sonnenstrasse, Schwanthalerstrasse, Hermann-Lingg-Strasse, Bavariaring, Theresienwiese, before concluding at Wirtsbudenstrasse. Further details, including a map of the parade route, can be found here.
  • The opening ceremony, where the first keg will be tapped, is set to occur at 12:00 on September 21.
  • On September 21, a parade of traditional costumes and marksmen will take place from Maximilianstrasse around 10:00. The parade will proceed through the city center before concluding at Theresienwiese. The exact parade route and a map of the route are available here.
  • Traffic restrictions will be in place throughout the festival, including road closures and parking bans around Theresienwiese grounds. The closed-off area will be bordered by the streets of Lindwurmstrasse, Herzog-Heinrich-Strasse, Paul-Heyse-Strasse, Schwanthalerstrasse, Schiessstattstrasse, Heimeranstrasse, Ganghoferstrasse, Hans-Fischer-Strasse, and Poccistrasse. Bavariaring and Theresienhohe will also be closed to vehicles, while smaller streets connected to these areas will be blocked off. Bollards and concrete barriers will be set up to prevent vehicle access. Traffic on major roads near the grounds, including Westendstrasse and Schiesstattstrase will be modified. Detailed information about the traffic restrictions can be found  here (in German).
  • Public transportation will be operating on extended schedules to accommodate the large crowds. Authorities have warned of overcrowding at U-bahn stations Goetheplatz, Poccistrasse, and Theresienwiese, which are in close proximity to the event location. Further details, including a map of public transport servicing the event, are available here (in German).
  • No parking spaces for cars will be designated in the entire vicinity of the Oktoberfest. Organizers have advised visitors to refrain from using their cars and to use alternative modes of transportation such as public transport, cycling, or walking.
  • The “Safe Oktoberfest for Girls and Women” campaign will be active again this year, offering a “Safe Space” at the festival where women and girls who feel unsafe can seek assistance. The Safe Space is in the service center behind the Schottenhamel tent.
  • The Wiesn guard, staffed by Munich police, will be operational 24/7 from a service center located near the Bavaria statue.

Source: Bayern Police

Assessments & Forecast

  1. Based on past years, daily attendance is likely to range from the high-tens-of-thousands up to hundreds-of-thousands. Overall, given the turnout in 2024, more than seven million visitors are likely to visit throughout the sixteen days.
  2. While the festival events are expected to transpire mostly peacefully, the presence of intoxicated individuals during Oktoberfest increases the risk of unrest, as those under the influence are more likely to engage in altercations. Such unrest is likely to manifest in the form of brawls between festivalgoers and police. Individuals are liable to throw objects or enter fistfights.
  3. Additionally, there is an increased risk of petty crimes, particularly pickpocketing, due to the large crowds. This is evidenced by 706 criminal incidents reported in the 2024 Oktoberfest, where police were called out 1,746 times, averaging 110 calls per day. As such, criminal elements are liable to target busy areas to commit opportunistic crimes. There is also a credible risk of sexual assault in busy areas at night and in drinking or party areas.
  4. FORECAST: Furthermore, given ongoing Israeli military operation in Gaza coupled with the timing of Oktoberfest being close to the anniversary of the start of the Israel-Hamas conflict on October 7, there is an increased likelihood of pro-Palestinian protests taking place around the festival and in other central locations in Munich. Such protests may also target sponsors or businesses associated with Oktoberfest that are perceived to have ties with Israel.
  5. FORECAST: These protests could draw turnouts in the low hundreds to mid hundreds of participants and are expected to take place in central public areas, such as major squares and roads in Munich, and near Theresienwiese. While authorities are unlikely to permit demonstrations directly at the festival grounds, protesters may engage in disruptive tactics such as road blockades and sit-ins, with banners or flags over the festival area. There is also a possibility of protesters attempting to disrupt festival events. Such actions could lead to temporary disruptions at the event and arrests.
  6. FORECAST: Separately, although authorities have not reported any specific threats related to Oktoberfest, the elevated threat of Islamist terrorism in Germany raises the risk of potential attacks targeting the event. The symbolic significance of Oktoberfest, large crowds, and extensive media coverage makes it a likely target for Islamist terrorists. Indeed, Oktoberfest was reportedly featured in propaganda posters by the Islamic State of Khorasan Province (ISPK) in January 2025, calling for attacks.
  7. FORECAST: While the risk of large-scale, multi-actor attacks remains limited due to extensive counter-terrorism measures, calls for violence could inspire self-radicalized lone actors to carry out attacks. Lone actors continue to represent the most significant risk, as demonstrated by recent successful attacks in Germany and neighboring countries, including Belgium, France, and Switzerland, carried out by individuals influenced by or affiliated with IS. Notable examples include the vehicle ramming attack by an Afghan national motivated by Islamist extremist beliefs in Munich on February 13. In addition to Islamist-inspired lone actors, lone actors associated with right-wing extremism or other ideologies also pose a credible threat, with these actors likely to target public events and crowded areas, as seen in the December 2024 vehicle ramming at a Christmas market in Magdeburg, Saxony-Anhalt, which killed five.
  8. FORECAST: While lone actors may consider using explosives or firearms, they are more likely to employ rudimentary attack tactics like stabbings or vehicle ramming, as seen in the aforementioned incidents, as these require less planning and are harder for authorities to foil. While extensive security measures around the festival are expected to reduce the likelihood of successful attacks, areas with high foot traffic, such as public transportation hubs and tourist spots, remain potential targets.
  9. In response to the abovementioned risks, security measures are expected to remain heightened in Munich. Particularly following the December 2024 Magdeburg attack, authorities are likely to bolster emergency services and work to secure all access points, including emergency entrances, at future public events. This is substantiated by the precedent of around 600 police officers being deployed on Theresienwiese grounds throughout the festival, supported by 1,200 to 1,500 security stewards employed by the city during the Oktoberfest in 2024. Additionally, increased security presence is likely at major transportation hubs in Munich. Authorities are also likely to implement evacuation orders and even localized lockdown measures if faced with a security alert, with a lower threshold.
  10. Significant disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular traffic are anticipated in the vicinity of festival events throughout the event. Disruptions to public transportation in the vicinity of Theresienwiese should also be anticipated, as well as overcrowding on available transportation.

Recommendations

  1. Those operating or residing in Munich on September 20-October 5 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance in the vicinity of Oktoberfest festival locations due to the aforementioned threats.
  2. Maintain heightened vigilance in the vicinity of large public gatherings due to the elevated threat of terrorist attacks.
  3. Alert authorities immediately upon witnessing suspicious items or behavior.
  4. If a potential stabbing, shooting, car ramming, explosion, or similar incident manifests, leave the area immediately if possible, or take shelter at a secure location.
  5. Public, private, and third-sector organizations are advised to increase their awareness of threats on social media through the use of threat monitoring services. Increased awareness of an organization’s political footprint and perceptions from online fringe groups can help uncover potential violent actors and plots before they occur.
  6. Allot for significant disruptions to travel due to the associated traffic restrictions in Munich throughout Oktoberfest.
  7. For further questions and risk assessments, please contact [email protected]
COUNTRY RISK LEVEL Low
AFFECTED AREA Munich, Germany
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL Medium
STRENGTH OF SOURCE Confirmed

Current Situation

  • The 190th Oktoberfest is scheduled to take place at Theresienwiese in Munich from September 20 to October 5. The festival will start from 09:00 (local time) on weekends and 10:00 on weekdays.
  • The festivities will begin with a parade of the Oktoberfest landlords and breweries at 10:30 on September 20. The procession will begin from Josephspitalstrasse and proceed towards eastern Sonnenstrasse, Schwanthalerstrasse, Hermann-Lingg-Strasse, Bavariaring, Theresienwiese, before concluding at Wirtsbudenstrasse. Further details, including a map of the parade route, can be found here.
  • The opening ceremony, where the first keg will be tapped, is set to occur at 12:00 on September 21.
  • On September 21, a parade of traditional costumes and marksmen will take place from Maximilianstrasse around 10:00. The parade will proceed through the city center before concluding at Theresienwiese. The exact parade route and a map of the route are available here.
  • Traffic restrictions will be in place throughout the festival, including road closures and parking bans around Theresienwiese grounds. The closed-off area will be bordered by the streets of Lindwurmstrasse, Herzog-Heinrich-Strasse, Paul-Heyse-Strasse, Schwanthalerstrasse, Schiessstattstrasse, Heimeranstrasse, Ganghoferstrasse, Hans-Fischer-Strasse, and Poccistrasse. Bavariaring and Theresienhohe will also be closed to vehicles, while smaller streets connected to these areas will be blocked off. Bollards and concrete barriers will be set up to prevent vehicle access. Traffic on major roads near the grounds, including Westendstrasse and Schiesstattstrase will be modified. Detailed information about the traffic restrictions can be found  here (in German).
  • Public transportation will be operating on extended schedules to accommodate the large crowds. Authorities have warned of overcrowding at U-bahn stations Goetheplatz, Poccistrasse, and Theresienwiese, which are in close proximity to the event location. Further details, including a map of public transport servicing the event, are available here (in German).
  • No parking spaces for cars will be designated in the entire vicinity of the Oktoberfest. Organizers have advised visitors to refrain from using their cars and to use alternative modes of transportation such as public transport, cycling, or walking.
  • The “Safe Oktoberfest for Girls and Women” campaign will be active again this year, offering a “Safe Space” at the festival where women and girls who feel unsafe can seek assistance. The Safe Space is in the service center behind the Schottenhamel tent.
  • The Wiesn guard, staffed by Munich police, will be operational 24/7 from a service center located near the Bavaria statue.

Source: Bayern Police

Assessments & Forecast

  1. Based on past years, daily attendance is likely to range from the high-tens-of-thousands up to hundreds-of-thousands. Overall, given the turnout in 2024, more than seven million visitors are likely to visit throughout the sixteen days.
  2. While the festival events are expected to transpire mostly peacefully, the presence of intoxicated individuals during Oktoberfest increases the risk of unrest, as those under the influence are more likely to engage in altercations. Such unrest is likely to manifest in the form of brawls between festivalgoers and police. Individuals are liable to throw objects or enter fistfights.
  3. Additionally, there is an increased risk of petty crimes, particularly pickpocketing, due to the large crowds. This is evidenced by 706 criminal incidents reported in the 2024 Oktoberfest, where police were called out 1,746 times, averaging 110 calls per day. As such, criminal elements are liable to target busy areas to commit opportunistic crimes. There is also a credible risk of sexual assault in busy areas at night and in drinking or party areas.
  4. FORECAST: Furthermore, given ongoing Israeli military operation in Gaza coupled with the timing of Oktoberfest being close to the anniversary of the start of the Israel-Hamas conflict on October 7, there is an increased likelihood of pro-Palestinian protests taking place around the festival and in other central locations in Munich. Such protests may also target sponsors or businesses associated with Oktoberfest that are perceived to have ties with Israel.
  5. FORECAST: These protests could draw turnouts in the low hundreds to mid hundreds of participants and are expected to take place in central public areas, such as major squares and roads in Munich, and near Theresienwiese. While authorities are unlikely to permit demonstrations directly at the festival grounds, protesters may engage in disruptive tactics such as road blockades and sit-ins, with banners or flags over the festival area. There is also a possibility of protesters attempting to disrupt festival events. Such actions could lead to temporary disruptions at the event and arrests.
  6. FORECAST: Separately, although authorities have not reported any specific threats related to Oktoberfest, the elevated threat of Islamist terrorism in Germany raises the risk of potential attacks targeting the event. The symbolic significance of Oktoberfest, large crowds, and extensive media coverage makes it a likely target for Islamist terrorists. Indeed, Oktoberfest was reportedly featured in propaganda posters by the Islamic State of Khorasan Province (ISPK) in January 2025, calling for attacks.
  7. FORECAST: While the risk of large-scale, multi-actor attacks remains limited due to extensive counter-terrorism measures, calls for violence could inspire self-radicalized lone actors to carry out attacks. Lone actors continue to represent the most significant risk, as demonstrated by recent successful attacks in Germany and neighboring countries, including Belgium, France, and Switzerland, carried out by individuals influenced by or affiliated with IS. Notable examples include the vehicle ramming attack by an Afghan national motivated by Islamist extremist beliefs in Munich on February 13. In addition to Islamist-inspired lone actors, lone actors associated with right-wing extremism or other ideologies also pose a credible threat, with these actors likely to target public events and crowded areas, as seen in the December 2024 vehicle ramming at a Christmas market in Magdeburg, Saxony-Anhalt, which killed five.
  8. FORECAST: While lone actors may consider using explosives or firearms, they are more likely to employ rudimentary attack tactics like stabbings or vehicle ramming, as seen in the aforementioned incidents, as these require less planning and are harder for authorities to foil. While extensive security measures around the festival are expected to reduce the likelihood of successful attacks, areas with high foot traffic, such as public transportation hubs and tourist spots, remain potential targets.
  9. In response to the abovementioned risks, security measures are expected to remain heightened in Munich. Particularly following the December 2024 Magdeburg attack, authorities are likely to bolster emergency services and work to secure all access points, including emergency entrances, at future public events. This is substantiated by the precedent of around 600 police officers being deployed on Theresienwiese grounds throughout the festival, supported by 1,200 to 1,500 security stewards employed by the city during the Oktoberfest in 2024. Additionally, increased security presence is likely at major transportation hubs in Munich. Authorities are also likely to implement evacuation orders and even localized lockdown measures if faced with a security alert, with a lower threshold.
  10. Significant disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular traffic are anticipated in the vicinity of festival events throughout the event. Disruptions to public transportation in the vicinity of Theresienwiese should also be anticipated, as well as overcrowding on available transportation.

Recommendations

  1. Those operating or residing in Munich on September 20-October 5 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance in the vicinity of Oktoberfest festival locations due to the aforementioned threats.
  2. Maintain heightened vigilance in the vicinity of large public gatherings due to the elevated threat of terrorist attacks.
  3. Alert authorities immediately upon witnessing suspicious items or behavior.
  4. If a potential stabbing, shooting, car ramming, explosion, or similar incident manifests, leave the area immediately if possible, or take shelter at a secure location.
  5. Public, private, and third-sector organizations are advised to increase their awareness of threats on social media through the use of threat monitoring services. Increased awareness of an organization’s political footprint and perceptions from online fringe groups can help uncover potential violent actors and plots before they occur.
  6. Allot for significant disruptions to travel due to the associated traffic restrictions in Munich throughout Oktoberfest.
  7. For further questions and risk assessments, please contact [email protected]
COUNTRY RISK LEVEL Low
AFFECTED AREA Munich, Germany
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL Medium
STRENGTH OF SOURCE Confirmed

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