This report is written by Atharv Desai, Senior Intelligence Manager, and reviewed by Pratistha Sharma, Regional Director of Intelligence, Europe Division. 

• On September 10, the Polish Armed Forces neutralized several Russian UAVs entering Polish airspace near the border with Ukraine. 
• The incident marks the first direct engagement by a NATO member state against Russian UAVs since the onset of the Ukraine conflict in 2022.  
• The incursions primarily affected the eastern regions of Podlaskie, Mazowieckie, and Lublin, prompting temporary closures of four airports, including Warsaw Chopin and Lublin. 
• The incident represents an escalation, as previous stray UAV crashes on Polish territory were monitored without necessitating a security operation to neutralize them. 
• Potential explanations for the violations include Russia’s deliberate testing of NATO defences, inadvertent crossing due to large-scale Russian strikes in western Ukraine, or a combination of both. Russia has not commented on the event, consistent with its longstanding narrative denying intent to target NATO states. 
• In response, NATO is likely to reinforce air defenses along the eastern flank, enhance radar and surveillance coverage, increase air policing missions, and temporarily deploy additional air defense assets.  
• The timing ahead of the Zapad-2025 exercises in Belarus may further raise allied vigilance. Consultation under NATO Article 4 is likely, whereas invocation of Article 5 remains improbable at this stage.  
• Overall, travel and operations in Poland may continue, while remaining abreast of official updates, security measures, and emergency instructions. 
• Avoid nonessential travel in the designated high-risk regions of Podlaskie, Mazowieckie, and Lublin in the near term, as authorities may increase military presence and impose temporary regulations. 

• On September 10, the Operational Command of the Armed Forces of the Polish Army announced that they neutralized Russian UAVs during overnight hours (local time) that entered Polish airspace.  
• The military reported that UAVs had crossed into Poland several times, and weapons were used to bring them down. Search operations are underway to locate the wreckage as of writing.  
• Authorities have identified Podlaskie, Mazowieckie, and Lublin as the most at-risk regions, with Warsaw located in the center of Mazowieckie. These areas lie in eastern Poland, bordering Belarus and Ukraine. Police units from the Podlaskie, Lublin, Podkarpackie, and Mazovian garrisons have been placed on heightened alert. In the village of Czosnówka, Lublin, authorities confirmed the discovery of a damaged UAV. 
• Four airports in Poland, Warsaw Chopin (WAW), Rzeszow–Jasionka (RZE), Warsaw Modlin (WMI), and Lublin (LUZ), were temporarily closed because of the incident. 
• The Operational Command of the Armed Forces has stated that Russia performed an act of “aggression” by violating Polish airspace.  
• Polish PM Donald Tusk has briefed NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte on the recent UAV incursions and the military measures undertaken by Poland. To coordinate the national response, PM Tusk will also convene an extraordinary cabinet meeting in the coming hour. 
• Meanwhile, Polish President Karol Nawrocki is scheduled to chair a National Security briefing with key officials to assess the situation and determine next steps. 

1. The development is highly notable, as it marks the first time Poland or a NATO member state has directly neutralized Russian UAVs in its airspace since the start of the Ukraine conflict in 2022. While multiple crashes of stray Russian UAVs and other projectiles intended to target Ukraine have been reported in eastern Polish regions bordering Ukraine, including the August 20 decoy UAV crash in Osiny, Lublin, the repeated violations of Polish airspace, and the fact that some of the UAVs were shot down in response indicate a significant escalation.  
2. Indeed, Polish fighter jets have been scrambled on multiple occasions, typically in response to Russian UAVs approaching or briefly crossing Polish airspace. In such cases, the aircraft were dispatched to monitor the threat but no direct engagement or shooting down took place, as the UAVs were assessed to be continuing toward targets in Ukraine rather than deliberately operating within Poland. The September 10 incident, therefore, marks a clear departure from this pattern, marking it the first time that Polish forces have actively used weapons against Russian UAVs inside their airspace. 
3. At this juncture, several potential explanations for the airspace violations by Russia exist –    
   • The incursions were likely intentional, designed to test NATO’s response, probe air defense readiness, or signal Russia’s ability to operate near NATO borders without triggering a full-scale alliance response. If deliberate, this would represent a calculated escalation intended to exert pressure on both Poland and NATO while advancing strategic objectives in the Ukraine conflict. Although highly unlikely, it is also possible that lower-ranking Russian military officials carried out these operations independently, highlighting both the risks of miscalculation and the potential for further unintended escalatory incidents along NATO’s eastern flank. 
   • Further, there is a possibility that Moscow will attempt to portray the incident as Poland’s overreaction to what it may characterize as “stray projectiles.” Such framing would allow Russia to deflect responsibility for repeated airspace violations and avoid admitting that its actions risked drawing NATO directly into the conflict. This narrative would fit into Russia’s broader information strategy of portraying NATO as destabilizing and overly interventionist, while presenting its own military actions as defensive or accidental. 
   • Given that this coincides with the large-scale airstrikes in Kyiv and parts of Western Ukraine, it is plausible that the UAVs were originally intended to strike targets in western Ukraine and inadvertently crossed into Polish territory, potentially after being launched from Belarus. Moscow has so far refrained from commenting on the incident. President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly denied having any intention of waging war against NATO countries, a narrative likely aimed at limiting escalation while preserving room for continued pressure on Ukraine. 
   • The higher number of UAV incursions into Polish territory is also likely tied to the notable increase in Russian UAV operations against Ukraine in recent months. Since June, the frequency and scale of these aerial attacks have risen sharply, with several strikes involving more than 500 UAVs. Notably, since mid-August alone, Russia has carried out four major attacks that each featured over 600 projectiles, combining UAVs and missiles. When the intensity of attacks was relatively lower earlier in the war, only isolated UAVs occasionally strayed into neighboring countries. However, the volume of launches significantly raises the probability of UAVs veering off course, with Polish and other NATO-bordering regions facing a higher likelihood of repeated airspace violations.  
4. FORECAST: Moving forward, NATO members are likely to strengthen their military presence and reinforce air defense systems in border regions as a precautionary step. This could include an increase in air policing missions, enhanced radar and surveillance coverage, and a faster quick reaction alert posture in Poland and neighboring member states. Additional short- and medium-range air defense assets may also be temporarily deployed to reassure allies and deter further incursions. 
5. FORECAST: These precautionary measures are especially likely in the run-up to the “Zapad-2025” Russian-led military exercises in Belarus, scheduled to begin on September 12. NATO has historically viewed these drills with caution, as they often involve large-scale troop movements and scenarios simulating conflict with Western forces. The timing of the UAV incident so close to the exercises is likely to heighten allied concerns about spillover risks and possible deliberate provocations, further reinforcing the case for an elevated NATO posture along the eastern flank. 
6. FORECAST: Given the scale of Poland’s military response and seriousness of the incident, the activation of Article 4 of the NATO Treaty, allowing member states to request consultations when their security or territorial integrity is threatened, is highly likely, However, invocation of Article 5, NATO’s collective defense clause, which treats an attack on one member as an attack on all, remains unlikely in the immediate term. This is especially as the circumstances surrounding the UAV incursions are still being clarified, and NATO members will maintain a cautious approach to the incident to avoid risking a regional spillover of the conflict.

1. Those operating or residing in Poland are advised to avoid nonessential travel in the high-risk regions of Podlaskie, Mazowieckie, and Lublin, as well as the areas close to the Belarusian and Ukrainian border over the coming days, due to a possible escalation of military presence and regulations. 
2. Keep abreast of official announcements from the Polish Ministry of Defense, local authorities, and NATO for updates on airspace violations or military exercises. 
3. Those operating or residing in Poland in the coming days are advised to prepare for potential disruptions to logistics, supply chains, and transportation, especially in eastern Poland. Be prepared to comply with emergency alerts, air-raid warnings, or instructions to seek shelter. 
4. Those planning to travel via Warsaw Chopin (WAW), Rzeszów–Jasionka (RZE), Warsaw Modlin (WMI), or Lublin (LUZ) airports are advised to reconfirm itineraries with their airlines and monitor official updates. 
5. For further guidance, security planning, or threat assessments, please contact [email protected].