• The fatality toll from the shooting attack at the Ramot Junction in Jerusalem during the morning hours (local time) on September 8 has reportedly risen to six.  
• According to an initial investigation, the terrorists entered Jerusalem through a gap in the security fence in the Dahiyat al-Barid area of al-Ram, located less than two km south of the Qalandiya Crossing. 
• Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that the attack would have “far-reaching consequences.” He vowed that just as Israel “defeated terrorism” in the northern West Bank’s Jenin Refugee Camp, it would achieve the same result in “other terror camps.”  
• The Israel Police announced that security forces arrested an East Jerusalem resident who is suspected of involvement in the attack. 

1. The attack is very notable in light of the high casualty toll. It also disrupts a relative hiatus of multi-fatality terrorist attacks in Jerusalem. The last such attack in the city occurred in April 2024, when two terrorists rammed their vehicle into pedestrians in Jerusalem’s Romema neighborhood. They subsequently attempted to open fire with a makeshift “Carlo”-type submachine gun, which jammed. The relative rarity of militancy in the capital is further demonstrated by the Israeli Security Agency’s (Shabak) statistics. According to the data, prior to the latest incident, only two successful attacks have occurred in Jerusalem since the beginning of 2025, while six plots were thwarted.  
2. That said, several factors have recently underscored the militant threat around Jerusalem. On August 10, authorities announced the arrest of a three-member terror cell in East Jerusalem’s Kafr Aqab who had plotted major acts of militancy in the capital and central Israel. Three Islamic State (IS) supporters were also detained in East Jerusalem on suspicion of plotting attacks at checkpoints near the capital in July. This reiterates both the desire among militants to conduct high-profile attacks in Jerusalem and the risk posed by Palestinian residents of East Jerusalem, as underscored by the subsequent arrest of an East Jerusalemite in the latest case. Such actors remain susceptible to radicalization amid prevalent anti-Israel sentiments, which have likely been inflamed amid the fallout of the IDF campaign in Gaza, assassinations of senior Hamas personnel, and the prospective operation in Gaza City.  
3. The fact that the latest assailants entered Israel illegally and undetected from the West Bank reiterates the long-standing gaps in Israel’s security barrier, which consists of multiple fenced sections in some areas that can be more easily surmounted. Such vulnerabilities also exist around Jerusalem, and particularly around the al-Ram area, through which the terrorists entered on this occasion, per initial investigations. This was shown most recently by the arrest of a Palestinian who illegally infiltrated the security barrier around al-Ram and intended to carry out a shooting attack in the capital on September 1.  
4. The terrorists’ choice to open fire at static buses and near a bus stop at a major junction during rush hour highlights their intent to maximize the casualty toll. It reflects a trend recorded in recent months wherein junctions with bus stops where groups of travelers are congregated have emerged as a particular flashpoint for acts of militancy. This is underscored by at least three such attacks within Israel, including at the Beit Lid Junction in July, the Tishbi Junction in March, and at the Karkur Junction in February. This trend reiterates a copy-cat dynamic, wherein militants are inspired to conduct attacks at such sites in light of their susceptibility to high casualty tolls. 
5. In this context, the Ramot Junction appears to be a persistent target for terrorists, as underscored by another major terror attack at the locale in November 2022 in which two IEDs were detonated. This is likely due to its status as the primary northern entry point to the capital from the West Bank. Additionally, the consistent and heavy traffic in the area during the morning hours provides targets for terrorists, while congestion on these major thoroughfares may impede the arrival of security forces to the scene in unfolding incidents. This is somewhat demonstrated by reports indicating that the arrival time of security forces in the latest incident was significantly delayed due to heavy traffic in the area, and the fact that the assailants were neutralized by an armed civilian and an off-duty soldier.   
6. More broadly, the current terror attack reiterates the high risk of militancy emanating from militant actors in the West Bank. This threat persists despite an overall downtick in the number of successful and thwarted attacks in the region, as indicated by the Shabak’s statistics below, since the IDF launched its extensive counter-militancy campaign in the northern West Bank in January. While this trend is testament to the overall success of the IDF’s campaign, threat actors maintain operational capabilities to launch low and high-sophistication attacks, primarily through local weapon manufacturing. This is underscored by the use of a makeshift “Carlo”-type submachine gun in this attack. Such relatively unsophisticated arms do not necessarily require the existence of highly professionalized organizational networks, and are regularly produced in weapons lathes in the region. Therefore, the fact that the perpetrators were in possession of such weapons does not necessarily indicate that they carried out their attack under the guidance of an organized terror group, such as Hamas, although such a connection cannot be excluded.  
7. FORECAST: The perceived success of the attack in inflicting multiple casualties is liable to inspire copycats to attempt similar acts of militancy in the immediate term. Israel’s security apparatus will therefore adopt a heightened state of alert and can be expected to bolster security measures in Jerusalem, as well as other urban centers such as the Tel Aviv metropolitan area, to contain the risk of additional attacks. This is particularly likely at flashpoints for terrorist attacks, such as transport hubs, including junctions with bus stops across Israel. 
8. FORECAST: As shown by the IDF’s reported deployment around Ramallah, in addition to Defense Minister Israel Katz’s pledge to expand the counter-terrorism campaign, security forces will likely also intensify counter-militancy operations in the West Bank to identify and arrest possible backers of the Jerusalem attack. This is particularly likely to focus on the Ramallah area, where terrorist infrastructure has also been detected in recent weeks.  
9. FORECAST: More broadly, the upcoming Jewish holiday period, which includes Rosh HaShanah (September 22-24), Yom Kippur (October 1-2), and Sukkot (October 6-13) will further elevate the threat of terrorism in the coming weeks, as Palestinian militants have often sought to conduct acts of militancy surrounding these symbolic dates. Jerusalem will likely remain a particularly desired target for such attacks in this regard, as many events marking Jewish religious holidays are held in the city, which attracts an influx of Jewish worshippers during such periods. Security forces are therefore likely to bolster security measures in the city over the coming weeks.  

General:  

1. Travel to Israel may continue while adhering to all security precautions regarding armed conflict, militancy, and civil unrest.  
2. In Israeli cities, particularly Jerusalem, remain vigilant in crowded commercial areas or near public transport facilities as these locations have been targeted by militants in the past. Alert authorities to suspicious behavior or unattended items. 
3. Maintain heightened vigilance in the vicinity of Jerusalem’s Old City, particularly near Damascus Gate, Herod’s Gate, Lions’ Gate, and the al-Aqsa Mosque/Temple Mount Compound, due to the risk of unrest and militant attacks. 
4. Avoid nonessential travel to East Jerusalem neighborhoods, especially on Fridays and during Islamic religious holidays, due to the elevated risk of militancy and civil unrest. This includes Kafr Aqab, Sheikh Jarrah, Shuafat Refugee Camp, Silwan, Isawiya, and Jabel Mukaber.     
5. MAX Security has strong on-ground capabilities in Israel, including secure transportation, provision of safe havens, and contingency consultation and planning. Contact us at [email protected] or +44 20-3540-0434. 

Militancy: 

1. In outdoor leisure activities at night, favor sitting in restaurants and bars’ inner area rather than the open-air section, which are more vulnerable to attacks. Refrain from large gatherings outside major nightlife venues and renowned nightlife hubs, such as Tel Aviv’s Dizengoff Street.    
2. If an attack unfolds within your vicinity, immediately seek cover, and try to safely disengage from the area as quickly as possible. This is given the risk of secondary attacks and shooting towards assailants by security forces and armed civilians, which could cause collateral damage. 
3. Those conducting essential operations in the West Bank are advised to travel in armored vehicles due to the elevated threat of shooting attacks that pose an indiscriminate risk to travelers.