Current Situation – On September 3, an anti-government protest march is slated to be held from the Sofia City Court at 18:30 (local time). Thereafter, the protest will proceed towards the National Assembly building and will then conclude at Orlov Most. The protest is organized by the civil society initiative Justice for All to denounce perceived corruption in the government. The center-right coalition Democratic Bulgaria is also supporting the protest. 

Assessments & Forecast – Based on the mobilizational capabilities of the group and social media estimates, the protest is expected to attract a turnout in the low-to-mid-thousands. Although previous protests have transpired largely peacefully, given heightened sentiments over the protest issue, the slated demonstration carries a latent potential for localized clashes between protesters and the police. As such, a bolstered security presence is expected to be deployed along the protest route as a precautionary measure. In case of escalating unrest, authorities are liable to use forcible crowd dispersal measures, including conducting arrests. Significant disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular movement are anticipated near the abovementioned protest locations from the evening hours onwards.  

Recommendations – Those operating or residing in Sofia on September 3 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance due to the potential for localized clashes along the protest march route.  Allot for travel-related disruptions from evening hours. 

Current Situation – As of September 1, the Mont Blanc Tunnel linking France to Italy is closed until December 12 due to the restoration and reconstruction of the tunnel vault. According to Francoise Lavorel, the secretary general of Haute-Savoie Transport Service, “most trucks will be diverted to the Frejus tunnel, causing an extension of journey times of more than 100 kilometers, with additional economic costs, as well as problems of schedule disruption related to drivers’ driving times.” 

Assessments & Forecast – The closure of the Mont Blanc tunnel will significantly disrupt cross-border transport between France and Italy. This will generate higher fuel and operational costs, as well as logistical complications linked to the regulated working hours of drivers. Increased congestion is likely along alternative routes, particularly at the Frejus Tunnel and secondary Alpine crossings, raising the likelihood of delays for both freight and passenger traffic. This will also raise the potential for supply chain delays due to impacted delivery services.  

Recommendations – Those intending to travel between France and Italy through December 12 are advised to allot for disruptions due to the closure of the Mont Blanc tunnel. 

Current Situation – The national electricity distribution system operator, Crnogorski elektrodistributivni sistem (CEDIS), announced that temporary power outages due to maintenance work will occur across several cities, including Podgorica, Andrijevica, Bar, Berane, Bijelo Polje, Danilovgrad, Kolasin, Kotor, Mojkovac, Niksic, Petnjica, Plav, Pljevlja, Pluzine, Rozaje, Savnik, Tuzi and Ulcinj on September 3. Power supply will be disrupted for a limited time in the affected municipalities. Details regarding power cuts, including scheduled timings can be found here (in Bosnian).  

Assessments & Forecast – The planned power outages are likely to cause localized disruptions to public transport, traffic systems, and internet connectivity in affected areas. As such, outages may temporarily impact business operations on affected streets. However, major disruptions to emergency or essential public services are unlikely given the duration and localized nature of the outages. Similar maintenance-related outages remain possible in the near term, potentially on a daily basis, given the precedent of similar interruptions being reported regularly over the past few days. 

Recommendations – Those operating or residing in the affected cities in Montenegro on September 3 and over the coming days are advised to allot for disruptions to travel and business operations due to the slated power outages. 

Current Situation – Unionized ground staff workers employed at a prominent private ground handling company will hold a strike from 00:00 (local time) on September 3 until September 9 at airports nationwide. It is unclear whether the strike will end at 00:00 or at 23:59 on September 9, as of writing. The strike is being organized to demand higher wages. 

Assessments & Forecast – Based on the mobilizational capabilities of the union involved, the strike is expected to be widely adhered to, unless averted. As a result, flight operations are likely to face significant disruptions, including flight delays, cancellations, and long wait times at airports in Portugal. Check-in processes will be particularly affected due to the absence of ground staff. Additionally, disruptions to flight services can be anticipated beyond the scheduled hours due to associated backlogs. Although associated protest actions have not been announced as of writing, the potential for spontaneous small-scale protests at the company’s offices and major airports by the striking workers remains. However, such protests are expected to transpire peacefully and without instances of unrest. 

Recommendations – Those intending to travel via Portuguese airports on September 3-9 are advised to reconfirm itineraries and allot for disruptions to flight operations due to the slated labor action.   

Current Situation – On August 31, a charter plane carrying European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen lost GPS navigation while approaching Plovdiv Airport (PDV), Bulgaria, forcing it to circle the airport for nearly an hour before landing. Air traffic controllers switched to ground-based navigation systems to ensure a safe landing. Bulgarian authorities informed the Commission they suspect deliberate Russian interference, though Moscow denied the allegation.

Assessments & Forecast – The allegations of Russian interference are highly credible, given a clear precedent of Russian electronic interference. For example, on April 14, the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) alerted the UN Secretary-General to sustained GPS disruptions over the Baltic countries, traced to Russia’s Leningrad region. Moreover, on March 14, a plane en route to the UK from Poland, carrying UK Defense Secretary Grant Shapps, had its GPS signal jammed near Kaliningrad, with Russian involvement also suspected. Since GPS jamming can only be fully eliminated at its source, the threat of interference is likely to persist, posing a risk to aviation and maritime operations. The threat of GPS jamming is especially high in countries bordering Russian territory, including Finland and Eastern Europe. c

Current Situation – On August 31, following Brondby IF’s defeat to FC Midtjylland in the Danish Superliga football tournament, buses carrying FC Midtjylland fans were attacked outside Brondby Stadium in Brondby, near Copenhagen. Several men dressed in black threw stones at the buses, injuring two people and damaging at least one bus, with a window smashed. No arrests have been made, but police suspect involvement of Brondby supporters.  

Assessments & Forecast – The incident underscores the persistently heightened risk of football hooliganism in Denmark, particularly in Brondby, as it follows the October 2024 clashes that prompted an indefinite ban on away supporters at Brondby–Copenhagen fixtures after masked fans engaged in pitch invasions and stone-throwing. With the Superliga ongoing, further incidents are likely around stadiums with large fan gatherings. Given precedent, the risk is elevated during matches involving clubs with established hooligan followings, notably Brondby IF, supported by groups like South Side United and Fri Sport, FC Copenhagen by Copenhagen Casuals, and AGF Aarhus by groups such as White Pride. This elevated risk also increase the threat of spillover violence affecting bystanders and attendees at football matches. 

Current Situation – On September 1, budget negotiations were placed on hold in Parliament to discuss controversial statements made by politicians from the far-right, coalition member Perussuomalaiset (PS). On August 27, Teemu Keskisarja, PS’ deputy chair, labelled immigrants as “low quality” during a television interview. Finance Minister Riikka Purra endorsed Keskisarja’s statement. Prime Minister Petteri Orpo stated that the government would not “accept statements that diminish human dignity.”  

Assessments & Forecast – The development constitutes the second instance of PS members being involved in racism scandals. The first occurred in September 2023, when the ruling coalition led by center-right Kansallinen Kokoomus (NCP) faced a no-confidence vote due to multiple racism scandals involving PS members. Given this, coupled with Keskisarja’s statement coming despite the government’s 2023 anti-racism policy, opposition parties are likely to cite the latest incident to file a no-confidence motion against the government. However, as the NCP-led coalition holds a parliamentary majority with 109 of the 200 seats, any potential no-confidence motion is unlikely to pass. Meanwhile, the likelihood of anti-racism protests in Helsinki is high in the coming weeks. 

Current Situation – On August 30, an Afghan national fatally stabbed another Afghan individual in Rue Marx-Dormoy in the 18th arrondissement of Paris around 12:00 (local time). The suspect has been arrested. The motive of the attack seems to be related to a watch robbery. Rachida Dati, Minister of Culture and Mayor of the 7th arrondissement, reacted by accusing Paris City Hall of “fostering insecurity by supporting people who break our rules and should be sent back.” 

Assessments & Forecast – The incident highlights the recurring risk of violent attacks in the Marx-Dormoy area, where police have repeatedly flagged cigarette trafficking and street sales as drivers of insecurity. Indeed, the event follows a similar stabbing involving Afghan nationals on the same street on August 15, underscoring a localized pattern of violence. The fact that the attack occurred in broad daylight on a public street also demonstrates a persistent threat to bystanders. Furthermore, the involvement of foreign nationals in both incidents could fuel stigmatization of migrant communities and be exploited by right-wing actors for political gain, especially within the broader debate on immigration and public safety in Paris. 

Current Situation – As per August 31 reports, clashes between protesters and police occurred during an anti-war protest in Cologne on August 30, which drew around 3,000 participants. Police used batons and tear gas following attacks on officers and violations of assembly laws. Authorities reported 13 injured officers, while a spokesman for the organizing anti-war group “Rheinmetall Entwaffnen” claimed that 40 to 60 protesters were injured and prevented from receiving hospital care. According to police, some protesters wore masks and lit smoke bombs. Pyrotechnics and gas cylinders were found in a support vehicle accompanying the protest. 

Assessments & Forecast – The clashes highlight the challenges authorities face in managing large, violent protests, particularly when demonstrators engage in unpredictable actions such as pyrotechnics or attacks on law enforcement. The discovery of pyrotechnics and other materials in a protest vehicle suggests that some participants were prepared to escalate the situation, emphasizing the heightened risk of violence at such gatherings. Additionally, given the accusations by organizers that authorities denied medical assistance to injured participants, demonstrations against perceived police brutality are expected in the short term in Cologne and other major cities. 

Current Situation – During the overnight hours (local time) of August 30-31, a fire was recorded at a school on Lindauer Allee in Reinickendorf, Berlin, causing minor damage to the entrance. A passerby observed two unidentified individuals fleeing. Investigators discovered a canister containing a flammable liquid at the site.  

Assessments & Forecast – Given that a canister was left at the scene and two individuals were seen fleeing, the incident was likely an arson attack. That said, the timing of the attack indicates this was not intended to cause physical harm but was likely a case of juvenile delinquency. The fact that a school was targeted on the night before the new academic year further suggests the involvement of juvenile actors. This assessment is also supported by 2024 reports indicating that juvenile delinquency in Reinickendorf is higher than the Berlin average. While such incidents do not suggest a broader threat to those operating in Reinickendorf, similar acts of property damage near school premises are likely amid the start of the new school term, especially in districts with high youth crime such as Reinickendorf, Neukolln, and Marzahn-Hellersdorf. 

Current Situation – On September 1, the feminist movement Dolle Mina reported widespread harassment and violence during the nationwide action “We Demand the Night On” held overnight (local time) on August 30–31 in multiple cities, including Amsterdam. The protests aimed to highlight women’s lack of safety in public spaces. In Maastricht, participants faced spitting, threats, and misogynistic and homophobic slurs, while in Amersfoort, women were chased, spat on, and had cans thrown at them. Organizers noted that due to limited police capacity, they had to assume responsibility for participants’ safety. 

Assessments & Forecast – The incidents underscore the risk of harassment to protest participants, largely due to the limited capacity of law enforcement to ensure adequate protection. With the organizers reportedly having to oversee participant safety themselves in response to harassment, it further highlights operational gaps in crowd and threat management. Furthermore, given that the incidents occurred across multiple protests nationwide and the extensive media coverage, feminist groups are likely to organize additional demonstrations in the near term, including in Amsterdam, to denounce sexual harassment and advocate for improved public safety measures. 

Current Situation – On August 31, two activists associated with the Futuro Vegetal environmental group threw red and black dyed powder on the Sagrada Familia church in Barcelona. The protest was in response to alleged government mismanagement of wildfires over the summer. The activists were briefly detained by private security and fined.  

Assessments & Forecast – The incident underscores continued frustration with government climate inaction, amplified by the 2024 DANA floods, which exposed vulnerabilities in disaster preparedness across Spain and led to multiple large-scale protests by environmentalist and anti-government groups. Though physical damage to the structure was limited, the targeting of a high-profile landmark reaffirms the use of symbolic action to garner media attention for activist causes. In the immediate term, with wildfires reaching significantly larger scales this August across southern Europe, the risk of further symbolic actions remains high, particularly in Spain, where the government is under mounting criticism for ineffective disaster management. Authorities’ reliance on brief detentions and moderate fines, as in this case, is unlikely to serve as a strong deterrent. In addition to symbolic actions, the potential for large-scale anti-government protests, as witnessed post-DANA, remains.  

Current Situation – One person was killed in Russian airstrikes that targeted Bila Tserkva city, Kyiv region, during the overnight hours (local time) on September 1-2. Commercial and industrial enterprises were reportedly damaged due to the air strikes. Separately, on September 1, Ukraine’s Defense Ministry noted an increase in Russia’s use of guided aerial bombs targeting Ukrainian troops and military installations as well as frontline settlements in recent months, with 4,390 bombs dropped throughout August compared to 3,786 in July.  

Assessments & Forecast – The airstrikes, coupled with the increased use of guided aerial bombs, underscore Russia’s strategy to engage and overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses. Indeed, guided bombs can be launched at least 50-70 kilometers away from the frontlines, thereby allowing Russian forces to evade the range of Ukrainian air defenses. Moscow has likely leveraged this distance to level Ukrainian positions ahead of a ground assault to accelerate advances, with Ukraine’s limited air defenses concentrated over densely populated regions, particularly Kyiv and western Ukraine. As such, Russia is expected to continue its dual use of guided bombs along the frontlines while also conducting large-scale air strikes across Ukraine. 

Current Situation – On August 31, police reported that two individuals were stabbed at Oxford Circus station, a Tube station located in central London, within 24 hours. The first stabbing took place at 03:40 (local time) on August 30, and the second occurred at 01:30 on August 31. Authorities believe that both attacks are connected. However, the suspect remains at large and motive remains unconfirmed. 

Assessments & Forecast – The above underscores the threat of rising violence in public transport in London, evidenced by the August 28 report stating that between January and June 2025, the London Underground recorded 12,415 crimes,compared to 12,306 crimes during the same period in 2024. Also, the attacks align with the growing threat of knife-related crimes in London, with offences increasing by 58.5 percent between 2021 and 2024. The risk remains especially elevated near Oxford Circus with 20 streets around Oxford Circus and Regent Street accounted for one in every 15 knife attacks across during this period. This increased risk stems from the heavy foot traffic from commuters, shoppers, and tourists creating opportunities for theft, assaults, and knife attacks.