Current Situation – In Letterkenny, County Donegal, an anti-immigration protest is slated to take place at Market Square from 13:00 (local time) on May 3. In response, United Against Racism Donegal Group has announced a counter-protest at the same location starting from 12:00. 

Assessments & Forecast – Based on precedent, these protests are likely to attract a combined turnout in the low-to-mid hundreds. Given heightened sentiments over protest issues and the presence of counter-protesters, these gatherings carry an elevated risk of unrest in the form of clashes between protesters, counter-protesters, and police. Notably, multiple recent anti-immigration protests in Ireland have recorded instances of localized unrest, including vandalism targeting immigration-related establishments. As such, a heavy police force is likely to be deployed near the protest location. In the event of escalating unrest, authorities are liable to use forcible crowd control measures, such as conducting mass arrests. Significant disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular movement, including possible road closures, are anticipated near Market Square from the afternoon hours. 

Recommendations – Those operating or residing in Letterkenny in County Donegal on May 3 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance near Market Square due elevated risk of unrest during slated anti-immigration protests and counter-protests from noon hours onwards. 

Current Situation – According to Roma Mobilita, the public agency responsible for transportation in Rome, on May 4, a carnival parade organized by various Latin American associations is slated to start from Largo Corrado Ricci in Rome at 09:00 (local time). Following the initial gathering, it will proceed through Via dei Fori Imperiali until it reaches Via di San Pietro in Carcere. Furthermore, local authorities have announced parking bans and restrictions on vehicular movement in the Largo Corrado Ricci area, effective from 06:00 on May 4. 

Assessments & Forecast – Given the precedent, the event will likely witness turnouts ranging from mid to high hundreds. Based on precedent and the nature of this gathering, the carnival is likely to transpire peacefully. Regardless, due to the larger turnout, a bolstered police presence is likely to be deployed near the event locations as a precautionary measure. With the announcement of traffic measures, multiple roadblocks and increased security measures around the celebration locations are anticipated. These measures, along with the travel restrictions in place, are expected to lead to significant traffic congestion near the event sites from morning hours onwards. 

Recommendations – Those operating or residing in Rome on May 4 are advised to allot for travel-related disruptions near Largo Corrado Ricci and other locations on the carnival’s route from morning hours onwards. 

Current Situation – The annual Remembrance Day commemoration, held to commemorate all Dutch victims of the Second World War and other conflicts, will take place at Dam Square in Amsterdam on May 4, beginning at 18:50 (local time). A two-minute silence will be observed nationwide at 20:00. Most business, events, public transport, and road traffic across the Netherlands will temporarily pause at that time. Related events will also be held in major cities across the country. In accordance with regulations, all shops must close by 19:00 nationwide. Further details about the event can be found here (in Dutch). 

Assessments & Forecast – Given precedent, the ceremony is expected to witness attendance ranging in the low tens of thousands. The potential of spontaneous protests in the vicinity of the commemoration cannot be ruled out, especially amid authorities’ elevated concerns over the same. As such, authorities will likely have a low threshold for dispersing protesters given the prohibition on demonstrations. Risk of opportunistic crimes, such as pickpocketing and theft, remains elevated near these gatherings. Major disruptions to travel should be anticipated near Dam Square from the evening hours onwards. 

Recommendations – Those operating or residing in Amsterdam on May 4 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance near Dam Square due to the latent risk of protests and opportunistic crime during the slated event. Allot for associated disruptions to travel from the evening hours onwards. 

Current Situation – Voting for the presidential elections will take place nationwide on May 4. The polling stations will be open from 07:00 to 21:00 (local time). According to the Romanian Electoral Authority, 14 candidates are contesting the elections. If no candidate secures the required threshold of more than 50 percent votes, the second round of the election will be held on May 18, between the top two candidates. Further details about the presidential elections can be found here. 

Assessments & Forecast – Political campaigning and spontaneous gatherings are expected to take place in the vicinity of polling stations, party offices, major public spaces, and outside government buildings in Bucharest and other major cities on May 4. Given heightened political polarization and dissatisfaction with the political establishment, such gatherings, and protests, especially those organized by right-wing groups, carry a heightened potential for unrest. As such, security is liable to be heightened outside polling stations, key government buildings, and prominent public squares. Disruptions to travel are expected nationwide. 

Recommendations – Those operating or residing in Romania on May 4 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance and allot for travel-related disruptions in the vicinity of all polling stations and potential protests. 

Current Situation – According to the April 30 report by Statistics Austria, the Federal Statistical Office, 176 drug-related road accidents resulting in personal injury were recorded in 2024, representing a 16 percent increase from 2023. Additionally, twelve fatalities were reported in such accidents —six of whom were under the influence of drugs, while the remaining six were not impaired. The figure marks the highest number of drug-related traffic accidents since records began in 2012.  

Assessments & Forecast – The overall increase in drug-related accidents, against the backdrop of March 19 reports highlighting rising consumption of cocaine, cannabis, alcohol, and nicotine in Austria, underscores the elevated threat collateral danger to the general public from higher substance abuse levels. This trend aligns with the 2024 Bundeskriminalamt – Austrian Criminal Intelligence Service – report, highlighting Austria’s strategic position along the Balkan route for cannabis and heroin smuggling, while Vienna-Schwechat International Airport (VIE) remains a major point for cocaine trafficking from South America. Given the high narcotics supply, the overall consumption levels are expected to remain high, further raising the risk of gang-related violence and incidental harm to the wider public. 

Current Situation – On May 2, Bundesamt fur Verfassungsschutz (BfV), the domestic intelligence service, designated the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party as a right-wing extremist organization at the federal level. The BfV cited the party’s anti-immigrant stance and disregard for democratic principles as grounds for this designation. AfD leaders Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla called it a “severe blow to German democracy.” Notably, state-level AfD branches in Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt, and Thuringia were already classified as extremist entities. 

Assessments & Forecast – This development is highly notable, especially considering that the AfD secured the second-highest, 152 out of 630, seats in the February 23 parliamentary elections. AfD is expected to portray the decision—which grants the BfV expanded surveillance powers against the party—as politically motivated and designed to damage its popularity to rally its base, potentially triggering large-scale nationwide protests and disruptive actions in parliament in the near-to-medium term. Furthermore, the decision is unlikely to affect AfD’s popularity and support, as the party has maintained strong voter backing—even in states where it is already labeled extremist—winning top results in the September 2024 state elections and the February vote. 

Current Situation – On May 1, three activists from the pro-Palestinian Palestine Action Eire group were arrested after they breached the perimeter of Shannon Airport (SNN) in County Clare, temporarily disrupting operations. At around 18:20 (local time), they drove a van through a fence, got stuck in a trench, and ran toward a taxiway, aiming to inspect a private plane allegedly linked to US military transport to Israel. The group is calling for a ban on military-related flights through Irish airspace.  

Assessments & Forecast – This incident, coupled with a similar runway break at SNN causing a 35-minute shut down in March 2024, underscores the sustained risk of disruptive pro-Palestinie activism targeting airport operations. Indeed, the fact that the protesters were able to successfully breach the perimeter is liable to exacerbate concerns over security lapse at SNN, which is the third biggest airport in Ireland. Furthermore, the incident aligns with the sustained threat of disruptive pro-Palestinian protests targeting Israel-linked defense and civil establishments amid protracted conflict and Israel and Palestinian territories. With calls to ban military-linked flights to Israel, further protests at other airports remain likely. 

Current Situation– According to May 1 reports, a 16-year-old boy was shot on Penshurst Road in Tottenham, North London on April 29. The victim was ambushed by a group of around six youths, one of whom shot him in the leg at close range. Eyewitnesses, as reported by media sources, described the assailants as having their hoods up and faces covered, with the incident resembling a gang-related attack. 

Assessments & Forecast – The suspicion that the recent shooting was gang-related is highly credible, given the targeted nature of the attack and the use of a firearm – commonly associated with inter-gang violence. The fact that in recent months, North London, including Tottenham, has recorded a series of gang-related violence stemming from Turkish and Kurdish criminal groups involved in the heroin trade, adds credence to this and reflects the growing risk of violent crime in the area. The incident also reiterates the growing risk of gun violence in London with 1,248 firearm offences recorded in 2023/24, compared with 1,085 in 2022/23. Furthermore, the suspects’ and victim’s ages underscore the increasing risk of youth criminality in London. 

Current Situation – On May 1, a prominent luxury department store was targeted in a cyberattack, leading the retail chain to deactivate certain systems after detecting unauthorized attempts to access them. However, operations continued despite the cyberattack. This follows cyberattacks that targeted two other UK-based major retailers, including a multinational clothing brand and a consumer cooperative, on April 22 and April 29.  

Assessments & Forecast – The close timing and similar pattern of these attacks suggest a likely coordinated nature. The targeting of retail businesses points to likely criminal motives, particularly financial gain. Reports indicating that the April 22 attack involved ransomware further support this. Consequently, these incidents reiterate the heightened threat of cyberattacks targeting large-scale retail businesses in the UK, due to their access to a high volume of customer data, coupled with the scale of disruptions that such cyberattacks could cause. Their strong revenue streams and reputational value make them attractive targets, as seen in the April 22 attack, which led to around 700 million GBP drop in the affected company’s valuation. Therefore, the risk of similar attacks is expected to remain elevated moving forward. 

Current Situation – The right-wing populist Reform UK recorded significant gains in the May 1 local council elections, winning 677 seats out of 1,600 contested seats. Reform gained control of 10 councils, two mayoral seats, and won the Runcorn and Helsby by-election. The Conservatives lost all 15 councils they previously controlled. Labour, though defending fewer seats, still suffered major losses. The Liberal Democrats gained many seats and took control of three councils. Most of these seats were last contested at the 2021 local elections.  

Assessments & Forecast – The Reform’s performance is highly notable, and since the Conservative and Labour parties failed to secure a combined 50 percent vote share reflects growing dissatisfaction with mainstream political parties. This discontent is further reflected in the success of the Liberal Democrats and Greens, who strengthened their local presence despite underperforming in the July 2024 general election. The results point to a fragmented political landscape, with voters increasingly turning to smaller or alternative parties. Reform’s capture of many former Conservative councils signals its emergence as a main opposition party, driven by internal divisions and instability within the Conservatives.