Current Situation –  Meteoalarm, Europe’s regional weather service agency, has issued red and orange alerts, the highest and second highest on a three-tier scale, for adverse weather in several countries on January 13-14. Red alerts for wind continue to be in effect in Croatia until January 14. Orange alerts for wind have been issued nationwide in Italy, in effect through the afternoon hours (local time) on January 14. Orange alerts for flooding continue to be in effect in the Oise region of France through January 14. Additionally, orange alerts for snow are in effect in parts of the Czech Republic and Greece through the evening hours of January 13. In France, the regional weather service, Meteo France, has issued a severe avalanche alert, the highest on a three-tier scale, in the Alps Mountains after an avalanche killed three people on January 12. In Norway, authorities have issued red warnings, the highest on a five-tier scale, for avalanches in several central, northern, and western areas of the country through January 14.   

Recommendations – Those operating or residing in the aforementioned countries in Europe on January 13-14 are advised to remain cognizant of authorities’ updates regarding weather-related risks and allot for disruptions to travel and services.    

Current Situation – Activists associated with the anarchist group Sykapro are slated to protest in front of the Athens Court of Appeal on Kirillou Loukareos Street at 12:00 (local time) on January 14. The protest is being held to denounce the arrest of two members of the group during a protest held on June 20, 2024. 

Assessments & Forecast – Based on precedent, combined with social media estimates, the protest in Athens is likely to garner a turnout in the mid-to-high dozens. Given precedent, the demonstration carries an elevated risk of unrest in the form of clashes between protesters and police – especially due to the likely presence of far-left and anarchist actors. With that, a bolstered security presence is likely to be deployed near the Athens Court of Appeal from noon onwards. In case of escalating unrest, police are liable to resort to forcible crowd dispersal measures, such as conducting arrests. Disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular traffic are expected in the vicinity of the Athens Court of Appeal during the slated protest. 

Recommendations – Those operating or residing in Athens on January 14 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance in the vicinity of the Athens Court of Appeal due to the elevated risk of unrest at slated protest. Allot for travel-related disruptions in the vicinity of the protest location. 

Current Situation – According to January 12 reports, Russian Emergency Situations Minister Alexander Kurenkov has formed a federal task force to address the December 15 oil spills from two tankers damaged in the Kerch Strait, which separates the Crimean Peninsula from mainland Russia. A new spill was reported in Taman, Krasnodar, with most fuel oil concentrated along the coastline. Containment booms and an access road have been deployed to aid cleanup. Additionally, 13 spills were identified in Russian-occupied Crimea, with pollution also affecting the Sea of Azov near Zaporizhzhia. This development follows Russian President Vladimir Putin’s January 9 criticism of agencies for their ineffective response to the spills. Earlier, on January 4, Russian-occupied Crimea declared a regional state of emergency (SOE) after an oil spill reached the shores of Sevastopol, Crimea’s largest city. 

Recommendations – Those operating or residing in Crimea as well as regions the aforementioned Russian regions on January 13 and in the coming days are advised to remain cognizant of authorities’ updates regarding the ongoing emergency operations in the Kerch Strait 

Current Situation — On January 14, pro-Palestinian activists associated with BDS Madrid are slated to protest at Plaza Salvador Dali in Madrid from 20:00 (local time). The protest is being held to denounce a football game between Israeli football team Maccabi Tel Aviv and Real Madrid. The protest location, Plaza Salvador Dali, is situated near the WiZink Center, where the game is scheduled to take place at 20:45 on January 14. 

Assessments & Forecast – Considering BDS Madrid’s mobilization capabilities, the protest is likely to see a turnout ranging from the high hundreds to low thousands. Given heightened sentiments surrounding the football game, the demonstration carries an elevated potential for unrest. Such unrest is likely to manifest in the form of clashes between protesters, law enforcement, and potential counterprotesters. Given precedent, hooligan groups are also liable to engage in violent behavior near the stadium. As such, a bolstered security presence is expected near the protest site, stadium, and transit hubs, with police potentially using crowd dispersal tactics if unrest escalates. Significant disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular traffic are anticipated near the stadium and Plaza Salvador Dali. 

Recommendations – Those operating or residing in Madrid on January 14 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance near the abovementioned locations due to the elevated potential for unrest linked to the football match and associated protest. Allot for travel-related disruptions in the vicinity of the stadium, the protest location, and major transit areas.  

Current Situation – On January 11 at approximately 22:30 (local time), a group of about 40 individuals attacked police on Rue Francart and Chaussee de Wavre in Brussels’ Matonge district during an operation targeting suspected drug dealers. The attackers emerged from a nearby gallery, throwing glass bottles and rubbish at officers. Police responded with tear gas. No injuries were reported, but multiple reports were filed for resisting arrest and drug possession. 

Assessments & Forecast – The above highlights the continued threat of drug trafficking and associated violence in Brussels, which remains a major transit and destination point for drugs, due to high domestic demand and good connectivity with other major cities. While the absence of lethal weapons in this attack suggests that it was likely a reactionary disturbance, the use of tear gas highlights the risk of spillover violence affecting bystanders, especially near the known drug dealing points. With Brussels recording a 26 percent increase in drug-related crime from 2022 to 2023, areas such as Matonge, including Rue Francart and Chaussee de Wavre, as well as Gare du Midi, and Brussels North remain vulnerable to similar violence.   

Current Situation – On January 12, the party leadership of the far-right populist party Alternative fur Deutschland (AfD) voted to separate from its youth wing, Jung Alternative (JA). While the JA operates largely independently, the new youth organization will be placed under greater party oversight, with participants mandated to hold AfD membership and activities aligned with party principles. The party leadership cited more stringent measures against misconduct as a reason for the change. 

Assessments & Forecast – With Germany’s domestic intelligence agency classifying JA as a confirmed extremist movement in February 2024, the move is likely aimed at distancing the AfD from such allegations in the leadup to the February 23 snap elections. Additionally, placing the new youth wing directly under the main AfD party reflects its attempts to exert greater control over its associated organizations, amid accusations of extremism in the party itself. However, existing JA members are liable to splinter to create an independent organization rather than joining the new youth wing if they are dissatisfied with the AfD’s increased oversight. This is liable to trigger concerns over escalating extremism or militancy in such offshoot groups. 

Current Situation –  On January 10, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski threatened to freeze diplomatic relations with Hungary, including canceling scheduled meetings with the Hungarian ambassador to Poland and rejecting invitations by the Hungarian embassy to diplomatic and cultural events. The diplomatic row was instigated by Hungary granting political asylum to a former Polish minister facing corruption allegations in December 2024. 

Assessments & Forecast – The development underlines the continuing deterioration of diplomatic relations between Hungary and Poland, evidenced by Warsaw threatening to take Budapest to the European Court of Justice if it does not comply with an international warrant for the minister on December 27, 2024. Domestically, political leaders in Budapest are likely to leverage these developments to further their anti-EU and populist rhetoric, with Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto already stating that Warsaw’s threats are a “machination” by pro-war “Soros agents.” Warsaw, in turn, is liable to further criticize Budapest’s pro-Russia alignment. However, even with Warsaw’s threats, a full suspension of diplomatic relations between Poland and Hungary remains unlikely in the near term, given the significant political and economic consequences of such a move between two EU countries. 

Current Situation – Anti-tourism activists affiliated with the “Robin Hood” group carried out a series of coordinated actions targeting tourist accommodations in Rome, Bologna, Naples, Palermo, and Turin during the overnight hours (local time) of January 9-10. The activists used superglue to disable electronic locks on key safes used for automated check-ins at rental properties and posted signs with slogans such as “Housing is a right, not a goose that lays golden eggs.”  

Assessments & Forecast – The recent incident highlights the persisting threat of anti-tourism actions in Italy, following similar incidents in December 2024 in Florence, Genoa, Milan, Rimini, and Venice. Considering that Italy is currently hosting the Jubilee 2025, a major Catholic event which will last until January 2026, tourist flow is likely to increase, thereby triggering similar anti-tourism actions in the medium term. Anti-tourism activities are likely to manifest as protests, blockades of cruise ships and landmarks, vandalism of tourist accommodations, and even verbal harassment of tourists. Meanwhile, authorities are expected to adopt further anti-tourism strategies, including capping the number of tourists at certain landmarks, which will invariably increase the operational costs for the tourism industry. 

Current Situation – On January 11, a cyberattack targeted the Technische Universiteit Eindhoven (TU/e), forcing the university to take its network offline. As a result, all educational activities have been halted through January 13. University authorities are still determining whether any data has been stolen. The identity of the hackers is unknown as of writing.  

Assessments & Forecast – While no group has claimed responsibility for the cyberattack, TU/e’s close collaboration with one of the world’s largest chip manufacturing companies on research and recruitment is likely to raise concerns that foreign hostile actors were behind the attack in order to steal technological data. This is supported by the fact that this company has previously been attacked by Chinese state-backed cyber groups. Companies and institutions related to the semiconductor and chip manufacturing fields in Europe are likely to remain primary targets for foreign state-backed cyberattacks in the medium-to-long term amid geopolitical rivalries and escalating technological competition. Moreover, higher education institutions are also expected to be frequently targeted due to laxer cybersecurity measures with the sector reporting a 70 percent increase in ransomware attacks in 2023. 

Current Situation – On January 11, Kyiv claimed that it had launched an airstrike using unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), targeting the Taneko oil refinery in Tatarstan, resulting in a fire. The refinery is one of Russia’s largest oil-processing facilities. 

Assessments & Forecast – The UAV strike on the Taneko oil refinery in Tatarstan reiterates Kyiv’s continued efforts to disrupt the supply of fuel to the Russian military, as the refinery has a refining capacity of over 16 million tonnes of oil per year and plays a crucial role in providing supplies to the defense forces. This is further supported by the Ukrainian attack on the refinery in April 2024, which led to damage to its primary processing unit. Given the advancement of Russian forces in eastern Ukraine, it is likely that Kyiv will continue UAV strikes targeting refineries in the coming days to reduce the ability of Russian troops to launch large-scale offensives, as the supply of oil is crucial for maintaining mobility, sustaining logistics, and conducting air and ground operations. 

Current Situation – On January 9, police raided a suspected bomb factory in Vislanda, Smaland, arresting two men in connection with the operation. During the investigation, authorities uncovered several tens of kilos of dynamite and a firearm. The factory is believed to be linked to a series of thermos bomb detonations in western Sweden connected to organized crime activity.

Assessments & Forecast – The factory reiterates the persistent threat of thermos bomb attacks in western Sweden, including a thermos bomb explosion in an apartment in Falkenberg in December 2024, and the discovery of a thermos bomb outside a residential building in Gothenburg, on March 8, 2024. In addition, the police raid reiterates police efforts to crack down on organized crime activity. Despite these measures, thermos bombs are likely to continue featuring in explosions carried out by organized criminal groups, given the ease in constructing them. While such explosive devices are predominantly used by criminal groups to target rivals or intimidate businesses for extortion purposes, they are increasingly used in physical attacks. Considering that these are also carried out in public spaces, they pose a credible, albeit limited, threat to bystanders.  

Current Situation – According to January 12 western media reports, Russian troops are advancing west of Pokrovsk city, Donetsk region, potentially towards a highway located seven kilometers from the Dnipropetrovsk region. Officials stated that the frontlines had moved closer to the region. Authorities warned of a potential increase in attacks by guided aerial bombs and artillery fire in the Dnipropetrovk region.  

Assessments & Forecast – The development, if confirmed, reflects Moscow’s efforts to bypass intensified hostilities in Pokrovsk, given heavy Ukrainian defenses in the city due to combat preparations since the summer months in 2024. Russian forces likely hope to advance towards settlements lying west and south of Pokrovsk, thereby aiding Moscow in cutting off Ukrainian forces from two different directions. Meanwhile, Russian advances towards the highway is likely to be slow paced, considering this would also depend on the scale of Ukrainian fortifications in the direction and favorable weather conditions. As such, areas along the highway between Pokrovsk and the Dnipropetrovsk region are likely to experience an increase in artillery shelling and other forms of attacks in the coming weeks.