09
Oct 2024
9:33 UTC
Norway Alert: PST raises terror threat level citing growing risks to Jewish, Israeli targets on October 8; likely triggered by Iran-backed plots
Current Situation
- On October 8, Norway raised its terrorism threat level from three to four, the second highest on the country’s five-tier system, according to Politiets sikkerhetstjeneste (PST), the Norwegian Police Security Service.
- The previous Level 3 rating implied that “one or more individuals were believed to have intentions to carry out terrorist attacks, though no concrete steps or realistic plans had been identified’. Level 4, on the other hand, indicates that “one or more people have concrete and realistic plans and are taking steps to carry out terrorist attacks and/or that several conditions increase the terrorist threat.”
- According to PST, the decision to increase the national threat level is primarily due to increased risks to Jewish and Israeli targets, driven by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the occurrence of several Jewish holidays in October.
Source: Politiets sikkerhetstjeneste
Assessments & Forecast
- While Norway has not seen any specific attacks or plots against Jewish or Israeli entities in recent months, the decision was likely triggered by a regionwide increase in such threats, including in the Nordic countries. Most recently Danish authorities reported explosions caused by grenades near the Israeli embassy in Copenhagen on October 3. In Sweden, authorities confirmed a shooting outside the Israeli embassy in Stockholm on October 1. Given the timing of the decision to increase the threat level, it was likely triggered by the recent incidents in Copenhagen and Stockholm.
- The decision also reiterates the elevated threat of Islamist terrorism in Europe, with multiple foiled plots and successful attacks reported in recent months. This includes the arrest of an Egyptian national for plotting against a church in Bergamo, Italy, on October 4, the arrest of a 15-year-old planning an attack on Jewish targets in Wuppertal, Germany, according to October 3 reports, and a shooting outside the Israeli consulate in Munich on September 5.
- Moreover, this decision is likely linked to concerns over Iran-backed plots targeting Jewish and Israeli sites in Europe. Indeed, Sakerhetspolisen (Sapo), Sweden’s security service, has linked Iran to the recruitment of Swedish criminal networks, namely Foxtrot and Rumba, in carrying out violent activities in Europe. Sapo has further indicated potential Iranian involvement in the recent explosions and gunfire near Israeli embassies in Stockholm and Copenhagen on October 1-2. Considering that authorities have repeatedly warned of Swedish criminal networks expanding into Norway, this heightens the risk of targeted actions against the Jewish community and Israelis in Norway, adding credence to the assessment.
- FORECAST: Based on recent incidents in the Nordics, potential attacks are most likely to be carried out by Iran-backed actors – specifically individuals involved in criminal milieus. Notably, given that recent incidents targeting Israeli diplomatic missions in the Nordics have been carried out by youths, youths from disadvantages backgrounds offered monetary incentives by organized criminal groups are most likely to attempt such attacks.
- In addition to criminal actors, self-radicalized Islamists also pose a credible threat. This is evidenced by reports of increasing radicalization, particularly among youths, since the start of the Israel-Hamas war – as noted in PST’s threat assessment for 2024. While transnational groups like the Islamic State (IS) have claimed attacks in Belgium and Germany in November 2023 and August 2024 respectively, these were also perpetrated by lone actors. Given the limited on-ground capabilities of groups like IS in Norway, the likelihood of a mass casualty, multi-perpetrator attack remains low. However, these groups could instigate lone actors in Norway to carry out small-scale attacks. Moreover, there is a risk of Islamists from Sweden entering via land border crossings.
- FORECAST: Any potential attacks by lone actors are most likely to manifest as stabbings and possible vehicular ramming, given the ease of carrying out such attacks and low detectability by authorities. However, Iran-backed criminal actors are more likely to resort to the use of explosive devices – including grenades, and shootings, given their access to these weapons.
- FORECAST: As evidenced by PST’s statement, the primary targets for attacks are expected to be Jewish and Israeli entities and individuals. These include synagogues, Jewish cemeteries, Jewish schools, Israeli diplomatic missions, and other sites associated with Israel. However, attack plots are also likely to target churches (as seen in the October 4 Italy attack plot) and locations with heavy footfall, such as prominent streets and shopping centers in cities, given the potential for more casualties.
- FORECAST: As a result, Norwegian authorities are expected to heighten security, deploying armed officers and establishing checkpoints near synagogues and Jewish centers during upcoming festivals such as Yom Kippur (October 11-12) and Sukkot (October 17-23), particularly in Oslo and Trondheim. In Oslo, key sites like the Jewish Museum on Calmeyers Gate, the Oslo Synagogue on Bergstien Street, and the kosher restaurant on Bogstadveien will likely increase police presence. Similarly, in Trondheim, the synagogue and the Jewish Museum on Arkitekt Christies Gate are also expected to receive heightened security attention.
- FORECAST: Other countries, in addition to Norway, are likely to elevate their terrorism threat levels due to the rising threat posed by Iran-backed actors and Islamist terrorists targeting Jewish and Israeli entities. While such measures are already in place in Denmark and Sweden, authorities in Finland may follow suit by deploying heightened security measures around synagogues, Jewish community centers, Israeli embassies, and other potential targets. This will likely include increased armed patrols, surveillance operations, and enhanced security protocols during Jewish holidays.
Recommendations
- Travel to Norway may continue while maintaining heightened vigilance for the increased threat of potential attacks by Islamist terrorists and Iran-backed actors.
- Maintain heightened vigilance near Jewish and Israeli establishments such as embassy and synagogue and also major public spaces, transportation hubs, and festive events with large crowds due to the potential for attacks.
- Consider keeping a low profile and limiting the wearing or presenting of overt signs or symbols associated with Judaism or Israel due to the elevated risk of harassment near pro-Palestinian protests. Those that wear the traditional Jewish head covering (kippah), are advised to consider wearing an additional head covering, such as a baseball cap.
- Alert authorities immediately upon witnessing suspicious items or behavior.
COUNTRY RISK LEVEL
Low
AFFECTED AREA
Norway
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL
Medium
STRENGTH OF SOURCE
Confirmed
Current Situation
- On October 8, Norway raised its terrorism threat level from three to four, the second highest on the country’s five-tier system, according to Politiets sikkerhetstjeneste (PST), the Norwegian Police Security Service.
- The previous Level 3 rating implied that “one or more individuals were believed to have intentions to carry out terrorist attacks, though no concrete steps or realistic plans had been identified’. Level 4, on the other hand, indicates that “one or more people have concrete and realistic plans and are taking steps to carry out terrorist attacks and/or that several conditions increase the terrorist threat.”
- According to PST, the decision to increase the national threat level is primarily due to increased risks to Jewish and Israeli targets, driven by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the occurrence of several Jewish holidays in October.
Source: Politiets sikkerhetstjeneste
Assessments & Forecast
- While Norway has not seen any specific attacks or plots against Jewish or Israeli entities in recent months, the decision was likely triggered by a regionwide increase in such threats, including in the Nordic countries. Most recently Danish authorities reported explosions caused by grenades near the Israeli embassy in Copenhagen on October 3. In Sweden, authorities confirmed a shooting outside the Israeli embassy in Stockholm on October 1. Given the timing of the decision to increase the threat level, it was likely triggered by the recent incidents in Copenhagen and Stockholm.
- The decision also reiterates the elevated threat of Islamist terrorism in Europe, with multiple foiled plots and successful attacks reported in recent months. This includes the arrest of an Egyptian national for plotting against a church in Bergamo, Italy, on October 4, the arrest of a 15-year-old planning an attack on Jewish targets in Wuppertal, Germany, according to October 3 reports, and a shooting outside the Israeli consulate in Munich on September 5.
- Moreover, this decision is likely linked to concerns over Iran-backed plots targeting Jewish and Israeli sites in Europe. Indeed, Sakerhetspolisen (Sapo), Sweden’s security service, has linked Iran to the recruitment of Swedish criminal networks, namely Foxtrot and Rumba, in carrying out violent activities in Europe. Sapo has further indicated potential Iranian involvement in the recent explosions and gunfire near Israeli embassies in Stockholm and Copenhagen on October 1-2. Considering that authorities have repeatedly warned of Swedish criminal networks expanding into Norway, this heightens the risk of targeted actions against the Jewish community and Israelis in Norway, adding credence to the assessment.
- FORECAST: Based on recent incidents in the Nordics, potential attacks are most likely to be carried out by Iran-backed actors – specifically individuals involved in criminal milieus. Notably, given that recent incidents targeting Israeli diplomatic missions in the Nordics have been carried out by youths, youths from disadvantages backgrounds offered monetary incentives by organized criminal groups are most likely to attempt such attacks.
- In addition to criminal actors, self-radicalized Islamists also pose a credible threat. This is evidenced by reports of increasing radicalization, particularly among youths, since the start of the Israel-Hamas war – as noted in PST’s threat assessment for 2024. While transnational groups like the Islamic State (IS) have claimed attacks in Belgium and Germany in November 2023 and August 2024 respectively, these were also perpetrated by lone actors. Given the limited on-ground capabilities of groups like IS in Norway, the likelihood of a mass casualty, multi-perpetrator attack remains low. However, these groups could instigate lone actors in Norway to carry out small-scale attacks. Moreover, there is a risk of Islamists from Sweden entering via land border crossings.
- FORECAST: Any potential attacks by lone actors are most likely to manifest as stabbings and possible vehicular ramming, given the ease of carrying out such attacks and low detectability by authorities. However, Iran-backed criminal actors are more likely to resort to the use of explosive devices – including grenades, and shootings, given their access to these weapons.
- FORECAST: As evidenced by PST’s statement, the primary targets for attacks are expected to be Jewish and Israeli entities and individuals. These include synagogues, Jewish cemeteries, Jewish schools, Israeli diplomatic missions, and other sites associated with Israel. However, attack plots are also likely to target churches (as seen in the October 4 Italy attack plot) and locations with heavy footfall, such as prominent streets and shopping centers in cities, given the potential for more casualties.
- FORECAST: As a result, Norwegian authorities are expected to heighten security, deploying armed officers and establishing checkpoints near synagogues and Jewish centers during upcoming festivals such as Yom Kippur (October 11-12) and Sukkot (October 17-23), particularly in Oslo and Trondheim. In Oslo, key sites like the Jewish Museum on Calmeyers Gate, the Oslo Synagogue on Bergstien Street, and the kosher restaurant on Bogstadveien will likely increase police presence. Similarly, in Trondheim, the synagogue and the Jewish Museum on Arkitekt Christies Gate are also expected to receive heightened security attention.
- FORECAST: Other countries, in addition to Norway, are likely to elevate their terrorism threat levels due to the rising threat posed by Iran-backed actors and Islamist terrorists targeting Jewish and Israeli entities. While such measures are already in place in Denmark and Sweden, authorities in Finland may follow suit by deploying heightened security measures around synagogues, Jewish community centers, Israeli embassies, and other potential targets. This will likely include increased armed patrols, surveillance operations, and enhanced security protocols during Jewish holidays.
Recommendations
- Travel to Norway may continue while maintaining heightened vigilance for the increased threat of potential attacks by Islamist terrorists and Iran-backed actors.
- Maintain heightened vigilance near Jewish and Israeli establishments such as embassy and synagogue and also major public spaces, transportation hubs, and festive events with large crowds due to the potential for attacks.
- Consider keeping a low profile and limiting the wearing or presenting of overt signs or symbols associated with Judaism or Israel due to the elevated risk of harassment near pro-Palestinian protests. Those that wear the traditional Jewish head covering (kippah), are advised to consider wearing an additional head covering, such as a baseball cap.
- Alert authorities immediately upon witnessing suspicious items or behavior.