Iraq Tactical: Kerosene shortages, lines at gas stations reported in Baghdad since July 27; allot for supply disruptions

Jul 2026

13:24 UTC

Reports indicate a kerosene shortage at fuel stations across Baghdad, causing long queues and traffic disruptions since July 27.
In response, the Ministry of Oil (MoO) has reportedly begun importing kerosene to compensate for domestic shortages and maintain fuel supplies for private generators and domestic markets.
A MoO spokesperson reportedly stated that increased summer demand, reduced imported gas supplies, and the Arbaeen pilgrimage have contributed to the shortages.

The shortage comes amid peak summer demand and highlights a strain on Baghdad’s fuel distribution network, particularly as reliance on private generators increases during periods of high temperatures and fuel/electricity consumption.
FORECAST: Baghdad continues to experience temperatures reaching 49 degrees, and fuel demand remains high at least until the August 5 milestone in the Arbaeen pilgrimage, which is expected to sustain generator use and increased vehicle transport activity.
FORECAST: While the MoO’s mitigation measures are aimed at improving supplies, localized shortages, long queues, and traffic disruptions are likely to persist in the near term. If shortages persist over the coming days, localized public frustration and protests at fuel stations, government offices, and major roads are likely to also increase. Based on precedent, electricity and fuel shortages during periods of extreme summer heat have triggered demonstrations, road blockages, and isolated clashes with security forces across Iraq. Expanded fuel shortages and disruptions to private generators are liable to escalate to additional localized unrest in Baghdad and other major centers.

Those operating or residing in Iraq on July 28 and over the coming days are advised to anticipate fuel shortages and, where possible, take precautions by securing fuel supplies in advance.
Maintain emergency fuel reserves.
Avoid unnecessary use of kerosene-dependent vehicles.
Maintain general vigilance against the backdrop of increased potential for protests and unrest.

Extreme

Baghdad; Iraq

Low

Credible

Reports indicate a kerosene shortage at fuel stations across Baghdad, causing long queues and traffic disruptions since July 27.
In response, the Ministry of Oil (MoO) has reportedly begun importing kerosene to compensate for domestic shortages and maintain fuel supplies for private generators and domestic markets.
A MoO spokesperson reportedly stated that increased summer demand, reduced imported gas supplies, and the Arbaeen pilgrimage have contributed to the shortages.

The shortage comes amid peak summer demand and highlights a strain on Baghdad’s fuel distribution network, particularly as reliance on private generators increases during periods of high temperatures and fuel/electricity consumption.
FORECAST: Baghdad continues to experience temperatures reaching 49 degrees, and fuel demand remains high at least until the August 5 milestone in the Arbaeen pilgrimage, which is expected to sustain generator use and increased vehicle transport activity.
FORECAST: While the MoO’s mitigation measures are aimed at improving supplies, localized shortages, long queues, and traffic disruptions are likely to persist in the near term. If shortages persist over the coming days, localized public frustration and protests at fuel stations, government offices, and major roads are likely to also increase. Based on precedent, electricity and fuel shortages during periods of extreme summer heat have triggered demonstrations, road blockages, and isolated clashes with security forces across Iraq. Expanded fuel shortages and disruptions to private generators are liable to escalate to additional localized unrest in Baghdad and other major centers.

Those operating or residing in Iraq on July 28 and over the coming days are advised to anticipate fuel shortages and, where possible, take precautions by securing fuel supplies in advance.
Maintain emergency fuel reserves.
Avoid unnecessary use of kerosene-dependent vehicles.
Maintain general vigilance against the backdrop of increased potential for protests and unrest.

Extreme

Baghdad; Iraq

Low

Credible

Supply Chain Disruptions